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Friday, September 11, 2015

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (11 September 2015)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 September 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:



30.43% - Group H
25.60% - Group C
14.24% - Group F
12.56% - Group I
8.42% - Group G
2.72% - Group A
2.15% - Group E
2.14% - Group D
1.74% - Group B

Top 10 most likely best 3rd team:

24.13% - Ukraine
17.09% - Norway
12.14% - Croatia
10.25% - Hungary
8.10% - Denmark
4.77% - Russia
3.72% - Albania
3.35% - Sweden
2.72% - Turkey
2.63% - Northern Ireland

Top 10 most likely to be involved in play-offs:

95.96% - Slovenia
75.60% - Sweden
61.54% - Israel
57.31% - Netherlands
56.89% - Republic of Ireland
56.77% - Denmark
54.91% - Ukraine
54.35% - Hungary
44.59% - Norway
40.01% - Turkey

Top 10 most likely to be seeded in the play-offs:

72.05% - Sweden
57.31% - Netherlands
54.50% - Ukraine
39.49% - Hungary
36.03% - Croatia
35.68% - Denmark
34.55% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
16.08% - Russia
13.43% - Norway
9.56% - Republic of Ireland

Top 10 most likely to qualify through play-offs:

47.65% - Netherlands
44.64% - Sweden
36.41% - Ukraine
32.31% - Slovenia
31.84% - Denmark
27.13% - Republic of Ireland
24.67% - Hungary
23.02% - Turkey
22.67% - Croatia
20.49% - Israel

Qualification chances:

100.00% - Iceland
100.00% - Czech Republic
100.00% - Austria
100.00% - England
100.00% - Germany
99.99% - Spain
99.98% - Wales
99.79% - Belgium
99.78% - Portugal
98.90% - Slovakia
98.76% - Italy
98.68% - Switzerland
98.09% - Romania
90.54% - Russia
90.29% - Poland
90.27% - Northern Ireland
85.86% - Croatia
81.50% - Ukraine
75.07% - Denmark
73.69% - Albania
73.21% - Norway
67.41% - Hungary
66.60% - Sweden
47.65% - Netherlands
44.76% - Republic of Ireland
35.88% - Slovenia
25.70% - Turkey
21.67% - Israel
20.41% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.32% - Scotland
2.52% - Montenegro
1.08% - Finland
0.51% - Cyprus
0.07% - Estonia
0.02% - Lithuania

Final tournament draw

Pot 4

99.91% - Wales
90.27% - Northern Ireland
86.44% - Iceland
73.69% - Albania
52.65% - Norway
33.85% - Slovenia
28.68% - Republic of Ireland
21.70% - Denmark
20.76% - Israel
20.11% - Turkey
18.96% - Poland
15.50% - Slovakia
13.87% - Hungary
11.32% - Scotland
6.76% - Romania
2.48% - Montenegro
1.21% - Sweden
1.08% - Finland
0.51% - Cyprus
0.12% - Czech Republic
0.07% - Estonia
0.03% - Ukraine
0.02% - Lithuania
0.01% - Croatia

Pot 3

88.92% - Romania
82.82% - Slovakia
72.90% - Czech Republic
63.09% - Poland
58.46% - Sweden
53.28% - Hungary
52.68% - Denmark
20.56% - Norway
18.25% - Croatia
18.06% - Austria
16.08% - Republic of Ireland
14.35% - Ukraine
13.56% - Iceland
7.12% - Russia
6.31% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
5.59% - Turkey
4.92% - Switzerland
2.03% - Slovenia
0.91% - Israel
0.07% - Wales
0.04% - Montenegro

Pot 2

93.76% - Switzerland
83.42% - Russia
81.94% - Austria
67.60% - Croatia
67.12% - Ukraine
59.96% - Italy
50.92% - Portugal
27.32% - Belgium
26.98% - Czech Republic
14.10% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
8.24% - Poland
6.96% - Netherlands
6.93% - Sweden
2.41% - Romania
0.81% - England
0.69% - Denmark
0.58% - Slovakia
0.26% - Hungary

Pot 1

100.00% - Germany
99.99% - Spain
99.19% - England
72.47% - Belgium
48.86% - Portugal
40.69% - Netherlands
38.80% - Italy

Taking the top 23 based on qualification chances, these would be the pots:

Pot 1: France, Spain, Germany, England, Belgium, Portugal
Pot 2: Italy, Switzerland, Russia, Austria, Croatia, Ukraine
Pot 3: Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Sweden, Hungary
Pot 4: Iceland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Denmark, Albania, Norway

16 comments:

  1. Edgar, thank you for update.
    Could you please write expectations in % (w1-x-w2) for remaining games in group C (except Belarus - FYR Macedonia) that are used in simulations. Just wondering how it is appeared that Ukraine still have 21,04% for occupying position above 3rd (100% - 24,13% for best 3rd - 54.91% for involving in play-offs). Even if Ukraine win both their games they need help from Luxembourg to overcome Slovakia or Spain.
    Here is the list of matches:
    Macedonia-Ukraine
    Spain-Luxembourg
    Slovakia-Belarus
    Ukraine-Spain
    Luxembourg-Slovakia

    ReplyDelete
  2. UEFA NT-ranking after MD9 of the EURO-qualifiers and the elo-predicted EURO-qualifiers for MD10. Indicated are the group spots after EURO-qualifying (Q1 and Q2: spot 1 and 2 in the group, Qq: best nr. 3, q1-8: numbers three of the 8 remaining groups sorted on October 2015 NT-coeff). Please keep in mind that the elo-predictions I use are only 1:0, 0:0 or 0:1. As the scored goals do count in the NT-coefficient, this is only a realistic indication of the resulting coefficient. This ranking is used as seeding ranking for the play-offs (4 top seeds in pot 1; 4 lower seeds in pot 2) and for the EURO 2016 finals draw. Host France and reigning European champion Spain are always seeded in pot 1:

    33,599 France -
    37,142 Spain Q1
    40,236 Germany Q1
    35,923 England Q1
    34,422 Belgium Q1
    34,345 Italy Q1
    --
    34,113 Portugal Q1
    31,325 Russia Q2
    31,254 Switzerland Q2
    30,895 Ukraine q1 (grp C)
    30,892 Austria Q1
    30,642 Croatia Q2
    --
    30,367 Bosnia-Herzegovina q2 (grp B)
    29,008 Sweden q3 (grp G)
    28,306 Poland Q2
    28,163 Czech Republic Q2
    27,998 Romania Q1
    27,562 Hungary Qq (grp F)
    --
    27,151 Slovakia Q2
    27,140 Denmark Q2
    27,033 Turkey q4 (grp A)
    25,388 Iceland Q1
    24,501 Wales Q2
    22,541 Northern Ireland Q2

    ============================
    nrs 3 to play-offs (seeds 1-4 to qualify):
    30,895 Ukraine q1 (grp C)
    30,367 Bosnia-Herzegovina q2 (grp B)
    29,008 Sweden q3 (grp G)
    27,033 Turkey q4 (grp A)

    26,902 Republic of Ireland q5 (grp D)
    26,439 Norway q6 (grp H)
    25,421 Slovenia q7 (grp E)
    20,491 Albania q8 (grp I)
    ============================

    rest:
    34,919 Netherlands
    25,834 Greece
    24,301 Serbia
    24,182 Israel
    23,159 Scotland
    22,991 Montenegro
    22,001 Finland
    20,746 Bulgaria
    20,051 Armenia
    19,486 Belarus
    19,429 Estonia
    19,318 Lithuania
    18,151 Latvia
    17,786 Georgia
    16,961 Azerbaijan
    16,898 Cyprus
    16,641 Moldova
    15,101 FYR Macedonia
    13,840 Luxembourg
    12,861 Kazakhstan
    12,765 Liechtenstein
    12,721 Faroe Islands
    11,310 Malta
    8,540 Andorra
    8,130 San Marino
    7,550 Gibraltar

    Elo predicts for the last matchday:
    Germany - Georgia 1
    Gibraltar - Scotland 2
    Poland - Republic of Ireland 1
    Faroe Islands - Romania 2
    Finland - Northern Ireland 1
    Greece - Hungary X
    Armenia - Albania X
    Serbia - Portugal X
    Belarus - FYR Macedonia 1
    Luxembourg - Slovakia 2
    Ukraine - Spain X
    Estonia - Switzerland 2
    Lithuania - England 2
    San Marino - Slovenia 2
    Austria - Liechtenstein 1
    Russia - Montenegro 1
    Sweden - Moldova 1
    Latvia - Kazakhstan 1
    Netherlands - Czech Republic 1
    Turkey - Iceland 1
    Belgium - Israel 1
    Cyprus - Bosnia-Herzegovina 2
    Wales - Andorra 1
    Bulgaria - Azerbaijan 1
    Italy - Norway 1
    Malta - Croatia 2

    ReplyDelete
  3. if Ukraine qualify for the EURO, will their playoff matches be included for the 2012 cycle where they had no qualifiers (host)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Of course. That's why they'll need 3-4 points to overtake Bosnia and 6 points to overtake Croatia (provided they both win today). If Netherlands don't qualify, they'll need to pass one of them for pot 2. If Netherlands do qualify, they'll need to overtake both of them.

      Delete
    3. The only doubt I have is will the bonus points for the play-offs be counted as if the play-offs had taken place in 2011 (thus 6,000 points per match) or will they use current bonus points (4,000 per match). Very interesting situation, and the decision could impact the number of points Ukraine need.

      Delete
  4. Well, as the current qualification is also used as the first cycle for Ukraine and Poland, I think the save assumption is that the current bonus will be applied.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But then why should Ukraine be disadvantaged by receiving less bonus points than all other teams in the cycle 1? It's not their fault they haven't played in the EURO 2012 qualifiers. I don't know, tough situation...

      Delete
    2. In cycle 1 the opponent was one of the best 8 second placed teams, now it is one of the worst 8 third placed Teams - this is the reason why the bonus was reduced and it would make absolutely no sense to give the higher bonus points for cycle 1...

      Delete
  5. UEFA doesn't apply new rules to adjust old match-results, but in this case the new match-results are used to calculate the missing cycle 1 for Ukraine and Poland. It is the consequence of art. B3b in the EURO 2016 regulations that the current bonus will be used:
    In the case of an association that has hosted a UEFA EURO or FIFA World Cup final tournament during one of the reference periods as mentioned under Annex B.1.2 and therefore has no points from the respective qualifying competition, the points earned in the most recent qualifying competition in which the association has taken part are used.

    ReplyDelete
  6. This also means that the final October UEFA NT-coefficient ranking, used for the draw of the playoffs and the finals, will not be final for Ukraine until after the play-offs ?
    I can hardly imagine the UEFA explaining that to the audience :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. The final October UEFA NT-ranking after the EURO-qualifiers (although 'final', see discussion above). Indicated are the group spots (Q1 and Q2: spot 1 and 2 in the group, Qq: best nr. 3, q1-8: numbers three of the 8 remaining groups sorted on NT-coeff). This ranking is used as seeding ranking for the play-offs (4 top seeds in pot 1; 4 lower seeds in pot 2) and for the EURO 2016 finals draw. Host France and reigning European champion Spain are always seeded in pot 1:

    33,599 France -
    37,962 Spain Q1
    40,236 Germany Q1
    35,963 England Q1
    35,138 Portugal Q1
    34,442 Belgium Q1
    --
    34,345 Italy Q1
    31,345 Russia Q2
    31,254 Switzerland Q2
    30,932 Austria Q1
    30,642 Croatia Q2
    30,367 Bosnia-Herzegovina q1 (grp B)
    --
    30,313 Ukraine q2 (grp C)
    29,403 Czech Republic Q2
    29,028 Sweden q3 (grp G)
    28,306 Poland Q2
    28,038 Romania Q2
    27,171 Slovakia Q2
    --
    27,142 Hungary Q4 (grp F)
    27,033 Turkey Qq (grp A)
    25,388 Iceland Q1
    24,521 Wales Q2
    23,216 Albania Q2
    22,961 Northern Ireland Q1

    ============================
    nrs 3 to play-offs (seeds 1-4 to qualify):
    30,367 Bosnia-Herzegovina q1 (grp B)
    30,313 Ukraine q2 (grp C)
    29,028 Sweden q3 (grp G)
    27,142 Hungary q4 (grp F)

    27,140 Denmark q5 (grp I)
    26,902 Republic of Ireland q6 (grp D)
    26,439 Norway q7 (grp H)
    25,441 Slovenia q8 (grp E)
    ============================

    rest:
    33,679 Netherlands
    26,654 Greece
    24,162 Israel
    23,259 Scotland
    22,971 Montenegro
    22,127 Serbia
    21,181 Finland
    20,766 Bulgaria
    19,476 Armenia
    19,429 Estonia
    19,278 Lithuania
    18,666 Belarus
    17,786 Georgia
    16,941 Azerbaijan
    16,911 Latvia
    16,898 Cyprus
    16,621 Moldova
    15,521 FYR Macedonia
    14,101 Kazakhstan
    13,821 Luxembourg
    12,725 Liechtenstein
    12,681 Faroe Islands
    11,310 Malta
    8,520 Andorra
    8,110 San Marino
    7,300 Gibraltar

    Congratulations and well done to all EURO-participants. Turkey snatched with a last gasp goal against Iceland the best third place from Hungary and pushed at the same time Denmark to the unseeded teams in the play-offs. Hungary has 0.002 points more than them.

    What an utter disgrace for the Netherlands, after their third spot at the last World Cup with much the same team. Right now, there is only very mediocre quality behind Robben, Sneijder and Van Persie.

    ReplyDelete
  8. It looks like UEFA will go against their own regulations and completely disregard the play-offs for the Cycle 1! Look at this article: http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/news/newsid=2293579.html?rss=2293579+Germany+England,+Portugal,+Belgium+top+seeded

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yeah, UEFA tries to keep it simple and ingores their own regulations with regard to the Ukraine play-offs.

    ReplyDelete
  10. hm Ed, always read your post first, correct typos and then press Publish.
    Of course I meant -ignores-.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Ukrainians have a good case to file a complaint if they miss out on pot 2 because of this. I'm just not sure if they are aware of it.

      Delete