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Friday, November 6, 2015

FIFA Ranking: December 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 December.

134 games, less than last month, but enough to create a disturbance in the force.

There are 5 teams fighting for the top spot. 

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

77 - Finland
75 - Albania
65 - Cuba
40 - Thailand
35 - Belarus
29 - Nicaragua
16 - Singapore
14 - Sierra Leone
14 - Armenia
13 - Zimbabwe

Most points lost (best case scenario):

-92 - Portugal
-61 - Israel
-60 - Czech Republic
-40 - Scotland
-35 - Guyana
-29 - Malawi
-28 - Faroe Islands
-27 - Bermuda
-24 - Samoa
-24 - Indonesia

The top spot again up for grabs, with 4 teams eyeing Belgium's crown: Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Germany.

Argentina don't depend on the other teams' results and with two wins they will return to No. 1. However, they have to play Brazil at home and Colombia away. Not an easy task.

Based on 10000 simulations (using ClubElo's expected goals formula), Belgium are slight favorites to the top position:

45.97% - Belgium
44.34% - Argentina
6.24% - Chile
1.84% - Colombia
1.61% - Germany

November 2015 rank - Country - November 2015 points - Minimum points - Maximum points


1 Belgium 1440 1362 1475
2 Germany 1388 1294 1413
3 Argentina 1383 1327 1519
4 Portugal 1364 1203 1272
5 Chile 1288 1241 1431
6 Spain 1287 1235 1351
7 Colombia 1233 1171 1416
8 Brazil 1208 1140 1322
9 England 1179 1053 1163
10 Austria 1130 1091 1161
11 Switzerland 1073 993 1101
12 Uruguay 1051 952 1186
13 Italy 1040 972 1087
14 Romania 1039 954 1033
15 Wales 1032 974 1052
16 Netherlands 976 909 1022
17 Czech Republic 974 810 914
18 Turkey 941 886 966
19 Croatia 924 882 958
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 923 855 1115
21 Ecuador 921 849 1040
22 Côte d'Ivoire 890 853 950
23 Russia 885 837 949
24 France 881 809 924
24 Mexico 881 839 898
26 Algeria 872 799 868
27 Slovakia 857 742 860
28 Ukraine 806 707 909
29 Northern Ireland 797 791 825
30 Ghana 793 755 789
31 Iceland 792 761 851
32 Cape Verde Islands 762 685 805
33 Hungary 759 690 945
33 USA 759 746 815
35 Denmark 743 647 877
36 Albania 723 798 798
37 Greece 718 686 764
38 Poland 712 645 776
39 Senegal 678 611 686
40 Costa Rica 671 648 759
41 Tunisia 668 629 711
42 Republic of Ireland 659 587 921
43 Iran 651 595 653
44 Scotland 649 609 609
45 Sweden 647 623 845
46 Norway 637 591 866
47 Paraguay 610 581 724
48 Korea Republic 606 583 617
49 Serbia 606 591 658
50 Japan 603 569 607
51 Cameroon 597 529 610
52 Congo 593 546 638
53 Guinea 589 546 621
54 Trinidad and Tobago 588 533 693
55 Congo DR 587 548 622
56 Finland 586 663 663
57 Egypt 583 527 643
57 Peru 583 562 747
59 Nigeria 582 487 568
60 Australia 573 528 585
61 Israel 559 498 498
61 Jamaica 559 540 644
63 Mali 552 511 592
64 Slovenia 547 518 801
65 Panama 515 492 604
66 Bulgaria 497 494 494
67 United Arab Emirates 495 497 543
68 Uganda 491 420 550
69 Equatorial Guinea 487 439 557
70 Belarus 479 514 514
71 Uzbekistan 477 422 470
71 Zambia 477 450 498
73 Gabon 470 438 498
73 Haiti 470 467 679
75 South Africa 461 428 487
76 Cyprus 444 441 441
77 Bolivia 442 413 615
78 Montenegro 426 403 426
79 Morocco 422 386 553
80 Antigua and Barbuda 417 409 409
80 Saudi Arabia 417 391 456
82 Jordan 411 390 427
83 Venezuela 408 408 583
84 China PR 403 378 420
85 Qatar 397 381 432
86 Liberia 394 329 613
87 Iraq 392 363 381
88 Togo 386 363 574
89 Faroe Islands 385 357 357
90 Estonia 370 320 369
91 Guatemala 367 338 431
92 Oman 365 333 375
93 Burkina Faso 363 334 429
94 El Salvador 361 328 462
95 Honduras 359 338 454
96 Rwanda 356 338 461
97 Malawi 351 322 322
98 Angola 344 299 458
99 Latvia 342 338 402
100 Nicaragua 341 370 370
101 St. Kitts and Nevis 340 269 332
102 Canada 335 324 420
103 Benin 333 324 597
104 Mauritania 328 297 466
105 Botswana 327 302 426
105 Niger 327 310 483
107 Burundi 321 279 447
108 Cuba 312 377 377
109 Zimbabwe 305 318 318
110 Central African Republic 302 302 302
111 Georgia 301 288 329
112 Aruba 299 298 298
113 Libya 297 279 427
114 Ethiopia 294 293 450
115 Azerbaijan 293 277 296
115 Bahrain 293 278 317
117 Belize 292 273 273
118 Madagascar 290 243 414
118 Namibia 290 268 402
120 Korea DPR 288 294 385
121 Sierra Leone 281 295 295
121 Turkmenistan 281 207 419
123 Lithuania 279 274 274
124 Kyrgyzstan 277 217 452
125 Kenya 274 247 442
125 Mozambique 274 249 384
127 Armenia 271 285 285
128 Sudan 267 259 533
129 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 262 221 368
130 Swaziland 258 242 380
131 Kazakhstan 256 266 266
132 Syria 254 247 276
133 Kuwait 252 229 256
134 South Sudan 246 246 246
135 Tanzania 245 236 406
136 Chad 240 187 415
137 Philippines 236 239 271
138 Palestine 233 211 301
139 FYR Macedonia 230 217 276
140 Lebanon 228 195 239
141 Guinea-Bissau 216 207 207
142 Barbados 206 214 214
143 St. Lucia 204 216 216
144 Thailand 202 242 263
145 Hong Kong 199 179 288
146 Luxembourg 197 188 295
147 Lesotho 193 185 185
147 Vietnam 193 200 200
149 Dominican Republic 187 180 180
150 Curaçao 182 192 192
151 Bermuda 181 154 154
152 Guyana 179 144 144
152 Singapore 179 195 311
154 Moldova 177 172 200
155 Guam 170 162 308
156 Afghanistan 168 162 194
157 São Tomé e Príncipe 165 170 170
158 Malta 164 143 179
159 New Zealand 163 137 192
160 Tajikistan 159 156 196
161 Myanmar 157 150 290
162 Timor-Leste 155 127 306
163 Liechtenstein 154 135 135
164 Samoa 152 128 128
165 American Samoa 144 127 127
166 Maldives 141 150 194
167 Grenada 137 139 139
168 Gambia 135 135 135
169 Cook Islands 132 128 128
170 Puerto Rico 129 120 120
171 Malaysia 127 127 210
172 India 122 97 132
173 Mauritius 117 119 119
174 Indonesia 108 84 84
175 Dominica 104 107 107
176 Laos 90 88 210
177 Comoros 89 75 346
178 US Virgin Islands 88 88 88
179 Yemen 81 79 201
180 Bangladesh 80 78 188
180 Bhutan 80 64 211
180 New Caledonia 80 80 80
183 Cambodia 78 83 174
184 Suriname 77 55 55
185 Pakistan 76 76 76
186 Brunei Darussalam 74 74 74
187 Chinese Taipei 71 78 212
188 Montserrat 67 67 67
189 Seychelles 60 56 56
190 Fiji 60 60 111
191 Tahiti 56 56 56
192 Nepal 51 49 49
193 Cayman Islands 49 43 43
194 Sri Lanka 45 45 45
195 Macau 44 44 72
196 San Marino 35 28 28
197 Turks and Caicos Islands 33 33 33
198 British Virgin Islands 27 27 27
199 Solomon Islands 26 26 26
200 Tonga 17 0 0
201 Vanuatu 13 13 64
202 Eritrea 8 0 0
203 Mongolia 6 6 6
203 Somalia 6 0 0
205 Andorra 5 6 40
206 Papua New Guinea 4 4 4
207 Anguilla 0 0 0
207 Bahamas 0 0 0
207 Djibouti 0 0 0

3 comments:

  1. How come that Belgium are the (slight) favourites for the first place in this preview, and yet Argentina are first in the probable ranking? There likely is some simple explanation, but why not include it so everyone can make sense of that?

    ReplyDelete
  2. In this overview the (current) ranking order of November is used and the minimum and maximum points for December per team are presented.
    In the probable ranking of December the elo-predicted results of all the scheduled matches are taken into account to predict the resulting December ranking.
    As you can see Belgium is predicted to win their friendly against Italy and draw their friendly against Spain; Argentina is predicted to win their qualifier against Brazil and draw their qualifier against Colombia. This set of results leads to a narrow lead for Argentina in the predicted December ranking.

    These 'fixed' predictions are of course only one set of possible outcomes of these matches. The 10.000 simulations above of the results of these matches give some more insight in the probability of Belgium staying number 1 in December. As Edgar concludes: Belgium are slight favourites to stay number 1.

    ReplyDelete