Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (21 October 2021)
Twitter

Tuesday, August 10, 2021

CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 (August 2021)

The eight teams qualified for the Octogonal, the final CONCACAF qualification round for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar, are known. Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras were automatically qualified for this round. El Salvador, Canada and Panama qualified from the second round play-offs in June.

Last week the Gold Cup 2021 finished, with the USA winning in extra time over Mexico. Semi finalists were Canada and invitee Qatar. So now all is set for the Octogonal, 14 match days to be played between next month and March next year. Numbers one to three qualify for Qatar, number 4 qualifies for an interconfederational play-off in June 2022 against a yet unknown opponent from Asia (number 5), South America (number 5) or OFC (number 1). No word yet from FIFA when the draw for the interconfederational play-offs will be staged.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

Mexico

45,35

30,63

13,81

5,66

2,85

1,18

0,40

0,12

USA

39,75

32,26

15,59

7,16

2,98

1,41

0,63

0,22

Canada

8,53

17,95

25,79

19,25

12,60

8,36

4,86

2,66

Costa Rica

2,52

7,14

15,06

19,14

17,86

15,98

12,86

9,44

Honduras

1,28

4,21

9,49

14,14

17,80

18,45

18,08

16,55

Jamaica

0,97

3,26

7,99

13,18

17,18

19,00

19,25

19,17

Panama

0,94

2,26

6,30

10,73

14,71

18,19

21,82

25,05

El Salvador

0,66

2,29

5,97

10,74

14,02

17,43

22,10

26,79



The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup and for the interconfederational play-off:

team

WC

IPO

Mexico

89,79

5,66

USA

87,60

7,16

Canada

52,27

19,25

Costa Rica

24,72

19,14

Honduras

14,98

14,14

Jamaica

12,22

13,18

Panama

9,50

10,73

El Salvador

8,92

10,74



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

5 comments:

  1. As a Canadian who was 3 years old when we last qualified for a World Cup I sure hope this comes true!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Canada has a squad now with a mix of exceptional young talent and experienced players that's in my opinion capable to do this. The Gold Cup showed that already. Good luck !

      Delete
  2. Europe has Switzerland and Belgium. North America has Canada. Country formed by foreigners and immigrants. No offense, but I would rather watch traditional Costa Rica or romantic Jamaica rather than Canada.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Traditional Costa Rica, Romantic Jamaica?? What a bizarre statement.

      Delete
    2. You mean the Jamaican roster with 14 English born players?

      Delete