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Wednesday, August 25, 2021

FIFA ranking September 2021: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the September 2021 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on September 16th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.


Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis. 


Aug pos

team

Aug pts

min Sep pts

max Sep pts

1

Belgium

1822

1758

1833

2

Brazil

1798

1747

1822

3

France

1762

1704

1779

4

England

1753

1693

1768

5

Italy

1745

1686

1761

6

Argentina

1714

1665

1740

7

Spain

1680

1624

1699

8

Portugal

1662

1615

1675

9

Mexico

1658

1604

1679

10

USA

1648

1593

1668

11

Denmark

1642

1584

1659

12

Netherlands

1637

1586

1661

13

Uruguay

1635

1583

1658

14

Switzerland

1621

1587

1648

15

Colombia

1618

1569

1644

16

Germany

1613

1554

1629

17

Sweden

1607

1579

1629

18

Croatia

1594

1546

1621

19

Wales

1567

1522

1582

20

Chile

1558

1523

1598

21

Senegal

1545

1506

1556

22

Peru

1543

1512

1587

23

Austria

1535

1480

1555

24

Japan

1529

1495

1545

25

Ukraine

1523

1490

1550

26

Iran

1522

1488

1538

27

Poland

1516

1469

1544

28

Tunisia

1515

1477

1527

29

Serbia

1507

1469

1529

30

Algeria

1499

1461

1511

31

Czech Republic

1493

1465

1525

32

Morocco

1488

1452

1502

33

Paraguay

1483

1447

1522

34

Nigeria

1480

1443

1493

35

Australia

1477

1444

1494

36

Korea Republic

1475

1442

1492

37

Hungary

1474

1432

1507

38

Slovakia

1467

1425

1500

39

Turkey

1464

1418

1493

40

Venezuela

1463

1434

1509

41

Russia

1462

1413

1488

42

Qatar

1455

1440

1471

43

Norway

1450

1399

1474

44

Costa Rica

1450

1413

1488

45

Romania

1440

1390

1465

46

Egypt

1433

1398

1448

47

Republic of Ireland

1429

1393

1468

48

Greece

1427

1397

1457

49

Scotland

1425

1386

1461

50

Jamaica

1423

1389

1464

51

Northern Ireland

1422

1388

1448

52

Ghana

1421

1387

1437

53

Iceland

1418

1384

1459

54

Cameroon

1411

1380

1430

55

Ecuador

1405

1378

1453

56

Finland

1404

1377

1437

57

Cote d'Ivoire

1403

1373

1423

58

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1402

1378

1429

59

Canada

1399

1366

1441

60

Mali

1393

1359

1409

61

Saudi Arabia

1386

1356

1406

62

Burkina Faso

1384

1356

1406

63

Honduras

1378

1347

1422

64

El Salvador

1375

1345

1420

65

Congo DR

1373

1340

1390

66

Slovenia

1371

1333

1408

67

Montenegro

1363

1328

1403

68

United Arab Emirates

1362

1333

1383

69

Albania

1360

1319

1394

70

Iraq

1355

1336

1386

71

China PR

1353

1335

1385

72

North Macedonia

1343

1308

1383

73

South Africa

1338

1311

1361

74

Panama

1335

1309

1384

75

Bulgaria

1335

1313

1363

76

Guinea

1330

1305

1355

77

Cape Verde Islands

1327

1301

1351

78

Curacao

1310

1310

1310

79

Oman

1305

1287

1337

80

Syria

1303

1284

1334

81

Israel

1288

1260

1335

82

Bolivia

1286

1271

1346

83

Uzbekistan

1284

1284

1284

84

Uganda

1282

1258

1308

85

Gabon

1278

1254

1304

86

Benin

1277

1254

1304

87

Zambia

1276

1255

1305

88

Armenia

1274

1237

1312

89

Belarus

1271

1254

1329

90

Haiti

1268

1268

1268

91

Georgia

1264

1245

1295

92

Vietnam

1261

1244

1294

93

Congo

1256

1235

1285

94

Bahrain

1251

1251

1251

95

Jordan

1245

1245

1245

96

Luxembourg

1239

1215

1275

97

Madagascar

1238

1211

1261

98

Lebanon

1238

1221

1271

99

Cyprus

1235

1202

1277

100

Mauritania

1227

1201

1251

101

Kyrgyzstan

1223

1223

1223

102

Palestine

1216

1216

1216

103

Trinidad and Tobago

1208

1208

1208

104

Kenya

1205

1180

1230

105

India

1180

1166

1186

106

Sierra Leone

1178

1178

1178

107

Namibia

1172

1148

1198

108

Zimbabwe

1172

1149

1199

109

Guinea-Bissau

1171

1149

1199

110

Estonia

1171

1161

1221

111

Korea DPR

1170

1170

1170

112

Azerbaijan

1166

1146

1221

113

Mozambique

1166

1146

1196

114

Faroe Islands

1165

1135

1210

115

Kosovo

1159

1139

1214

116

Tajikistan

1158

1158

1158

117

Niger

1156

1131

1181

118

Malawi

1154

1135

1185

119

New Zealand

1149

1149

1149

120

Thailand

1149

1149

1149

121

Sudan

1148

1131

1181

122

Libya

1148

1126

1176

123

Central African Republic

1147

1124

1174

124

Kazakhstan

1144

1126

1201

125

Guatemala

1139

1139

1139

126

Angola

1136

1118

1168

127

Rwanda

1134

1117

1167

128

Philippines

1132

1132

1132

129

Antigua and Barbuda

1131

1131

1131

130

Turkmenistan

1118

1118

1118

131

Togo

1106

1091

1141

132

Equatorial Guinea

1105

1091

1141

133

Comoros

1104

1104

1104

134

Lithuania

1097

1082

1157

135

Tanzania

1094

1078

1128

136

Latvia

1084

1055

1130

137

Ethiopia

1079

1064

1114

138

St. Kitts and Nevis

1078

1078

1078

139

Suriname

1078

1078

1078

140

Burundi

1076

1076

1076

141

Solomon Islands

1073

1073

1073

142

Kuwait

1067

1067

1067

143

Nicaragua

1064

1064

1064

144

Lesotho

1058

1058

1058

145

Myanmar

1057

1057

1057

146

Eswatini

1054

1054

1054

147

Hong Kong

1053

1053

1053

148

Gambia

1053

1053

1053

149

Botswana

1052

1052

1052

150

Liberia

1050

1036

1086

151

Chinese Taipei

1046

1032

1057

152

Yemen

1046

1046

1046

153

Afghanistan

1045

1045

1045

154

Malaysia

1041

1041

1041

155

New Caledonia

1035

1035

1035

156

Andorra

1032

1009

1084

157

Dominican Republic

1029

1029

1029

158

Maldives

1028

1028

1028

159

Tahiti

1014

1014

1014

160

Singapore

1000

1000

1000

161

Fiji

996

996

996

162

Barbados

996

996

996

163

Vanuatu

996

996

996

164

Papua New Guinea

991

991

991

165

South Sudan

983

983

983

166

Bermuda

982

982

982

167

Grenada

974

974

974

168

Nepal

972

966

986

169

Belize

967

967

967

170

Mauritius

965

965

965

171

Puerto Rico

963

963

963

172

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

961

961

961

173

Guyana

959

959

959

174

Indonesia

957

947

972

175

Moldova

954

940

1015

176

St. Lucia

953

953

953

177

Malta

952

938

1013

178

Montserrat

951

951

951

179

Cambodia

950

936

961

180

Cuba

947

947

947

181

Chad

935

935

935

182

Djibouti

922

913

963

183

Macau

922

922

922

184

Dominica

917

917

917

185

Mongolia

917

917

917

186

Laos

912

912

912

187

Bhutan

911

911

911

188

Bangladesh

909

909

909

189

Liechtenstein

908

898

973

190

Brunei Darussalam

904

904

904

191

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

903

903

903

192

American Samoa

900

900

900

193

Samoa

894

894

894

194

Gibraltar

880

867

942

195

Timor-Leste

879

879

879

196

Somalia

874

874

874

197

Cayman Islands

874

874

874

198

Pakistan

867

867

867

199

Seychelles

866

866

866

200

Tonga

862

862

862

201

Aruba

860

860

860

202

Bahamas

859

859

859

203

Guam

858

848

873

204

Eritrea

856

856

856

205

Sri Lanka

847

847

847

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

840

840

840

207

US Virgin Islands

816

816

816

208

British Virgin Islands

813

813

813

209

San Marino

802

791

866

210

Anguilla

792

792

792



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

8 comments:

  1. Thanks Ed for great Job. It seems to me that you forgot to include the following matches in the final probable ranking and preview, while you included them in probable results: BHR-HAI, JOR-HAI, JOR-BHR.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Indeed, these matches are mentioned in the probable results but with a zero as first number. This indicates that they are not included in this probable ranking.
    I don't include them yet because they are mentioned in only one of my match sources and not both.

    My criterium to include: only if a match is mentioned in both match sources I include the match in the calculation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Ed for your quick reply. Have a nice day.

      Delete
  3. Hi Ed
    What’s the situation regarding FIFA Arab cup next December regarding ranking? Are they counted as official games like other competitions?

    ReplyDelete
  4. As far as I know the matches in the Arab Cup will be treated as friendlies for the ranking calculation, just like other regional tournaments, with I=5 because played outside any International match window. At least we know that the qualifiers for this tournament back in June were treated as simple friendlies.

    Of course FIFA can make an exception and use a different I-factor for the final tournament in this Cup, but they certainly won't communicate that beforehand, so that remains to be seen once the December ranking is published.

    ReplyDelete
  5. So what are the maximum points can Egypt gain from this tournament?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Current elo predictions see Egypt start the Arab Cup on 1461,8 points and end the tournament (after a defeat in the quarter final against Morocco) with 1459,9 points.
    With friendly status and I-factor = 5 a team can gain some 2-3 points per win in this Cup depending on the strength of the opponent. Further more, a loss in the knock-out stage will cost you points as it's only a friendly tournament.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can Egypt via their participation in that Arab cup overthrow Nigeria from the 5th place in CAF teams Fifa ranking ?

      Delete