2026 World Cup Qualifying CAF 10000 Simulations (update 20 September 2025)

Here's the simulations for the 2026 World Cup Qualifying for CAF. With just two match windows left only Morocco and Tunisia have qualified, so there's a lot to play for. For Cape Verde Islands fans there's certainly a lot of nail-biting left to do, but it looks like this time will be their best chance ever, having been close before.

Group A

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Egypt                     98.79%   1.21%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Burkina Faso               1.21%  93.29%   5.45%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%

Sierra Leone               0.00%   5.47%  82.07%  12.41%   0.05%   0.00%

Guinea-Bissau              0.00%   0.03%  12.17%  79.04%   8.76%   0.00%

Ethiopia                   0.00%   0.00%   0.31%   8.50%  90.66%   0.53%

Djibouti                   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.53%  99.47%

Group B

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Senegal                   91.58%   8.42%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Democratic Rep of Congo    8.41%  87.52%   4.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Sudan                      0.01%   4.06%  93.15%   2.75%   0.03%   0.00%

Togo                       0.00%   0.00%   2.44%  74.46%  20.90%   2.20%

Mauritania                 0.00%   0.00%   0.34%  20.14%  67.37%  12.15%

South Sudan                0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.65%  11.70%  85.65%

Group C

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

South Africa              96.84%   3.06%   0.10%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Benin                      2.28%  48.12%  38.03%  11.57%   0.00%   0.00%

Nigeria                    0.80%  45.56%  44.02%   8.86%   0.76%   0.00%

Rwanda                     0.08%   3.26%  17.67%  77.61%   1.38%   0.00%

Lesotho                    0.00%   0.00%   0.18%   1.96%  57.18%  40.68%

Zimbabwe                   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  40.68%  59.32%

Group D

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Cape Verde Islands        88.87%   8.44%   2.69%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Cameroon                   8.22%  78.82%  12.22%   0.74%   0.00%   0.00%

Libya                      2.91%  12.45%  78.60%   6.04%   0.00%   0.00%

Angola                     0.00%   0.29%   6.49%  92.82%   0.40%   0.00%

Mauritius                  0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.40%  85.50%  14.10%

Eswatini                   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  14.10%  85.90%

Group E

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth

Morocco                  100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Tanzania                   0.00%  41.18%  34.18%  20.54%   4.10%

Niger                      0.00%  31.26%  33.65%  22.52%  12.57%

Zambia                     0.00%  19.98%  21.25%  36.42%  22.35%

Congo                      0.00%   7.58%  10.92%  20.52%  60.98%

Group F

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Côte d'Ivoire             83.82%  16.18%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Gabon                     16.18%  83.82%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Gambia                     0.00%   0.00%  52.82%  36.85%  10.33%   0.00%

Burundi                    0.00%   0.00%  27.20%  35.33%  37.47%   0.00%

Kenya                      0.00%   0.00%  19.98%  27.82%  52.20%   0.00%

Seychelles                 0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%

Group G

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Algeria                   97.43%   2.18%   0.39%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Uganda                     1.79%  38.21%  49.80%  10.20%   0.00%   0.00%

Mozambique                 0.78%  56.19%  34.42%   8.61%   0.00%   0.00%

Guinea                     0.00%   3.35%  13.90%  65.43%  17.32%   0.00%

Botswana                   0.00%   0.07%   1.49%  15.76%  82.68%   0.00%

Somalia                    0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%

Group H

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Tunisia                  100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Namibia                    0.00%  85.72%  13.43%   0.85%   0.00%   0.00%

Liberia                    0.00%   6.84%  23.71%  37.18%  32.27%   0.00%

Equatorial Guinea          0.00%   4.73%  31.68%  27.58%  36.01%   0.00%

Malawi                     0.00%   2.71%  31.18%  34.39%  31.72%   0.00%

São Tomé and Príncipe      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Group I

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Ghana                     91.79%   8.15%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Comoros                    5.77%  28.05%  30.23%  35.95%   0.00%   0.00%

Madagascar                 2.44%  44.75%  25.53%  27.28%   0.00%   0.00%

Mali                       0.00%  19.05%  44.18%  36.77%   0.00%   0.00%

Central African Republic   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  97.33%   2.67%

Chad                       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.67%  97.33%

So that all means that we'll likely see Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Cape Verde Islands, Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria and Ghana join Morocco and Tunisia at the finals. For the runner up positions I don't have my software configured to work that out (yet) but Gabon are assured a place at least if they don't win their group. With Bolivia pipping Venezuela against the odds in South America I'm not going to say anything as there's too many combinations possible still.