Qualifying Groups
Here's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying.
In Group A Germany still wins the group the most times, but it's percentage is down a whopping 20% following their loss to Slovakia, while the latter's percentage to win the group has now doubled.
In Group B Switzerland's chances to qualify directly has increased significantly with Sweden's loss away to Kosovo.
In Group C both Denmark and Scotland's chances are now higher with Greece's percentage dropping after their home loss to Denmark.
In Group D France is now almost certain to take the group with Iceland and Ukraine vying for the playoff spot.
In Group E Spain is obviously favorite now following their big win away to Türkiye, with the latter now likely destined for the playoffs.
In Group F Portugal is now odds on favorite to take the automatic qualifying spot, with Hungary likely to end up in the playoffs.
In Group G the changes are minimal with the Netherlands expected to win their remaining games except maybe away to Poland, but with a superior goal difference they could even afford to lose that match in November.
In Group H Austria's chances to take the automatic qualifying spot have increased significantly with Bosnia and Herzegovina like to qualify for the playoffs. Romania should also make the playoffs via the Nations League system.
In Group I Norway just keeps on winning so that's increased their chances, with Italy not being able to afford to slip up and not only requiring a win in their final game at home to Norway, but having to score big in all their remaining matches to not be destined for the playoffs once more.
In Group J Belgium are still favorite to take the automatic qualifying spot, with Wales looking to make the playoffs either as runner up or via the Nations League system.
In Group K it should be clear sailing for England with Serbia likely to take the playoff spot.
In Group L Croatia's chances are increasing to take the automatic qualifying spot, with Czechia likely destined for the playoffs.
NOTE: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.
Group A
Group B
Group C
Group D
Group E
Group F
Group G
Group H
Group I
Group J
Group K
Group L
Playoffs
Likelihood
The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs. So the chances of Sweden, Poland, Türkiye, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany and Iceland are up significantly. San Marino, Finland, Luxembourg and Montenegro's chances to reach the playoffs are now much lower.
NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round. And then in brackets are the old percentage from June 2025, and finally the change since last time).
FRnk Grp Playoff Prev Change
Romania 51 H 99.32% (92.91% +6.41%)
Northern Ireland 72 A 95.62% (88.57% +7.05%)
North Macedonia 63 J 93.93% (91.40% +2.53%)
Sweden 32 B 90.83% (68.88% +21.95%)
Wales 30 J 90.40% (86.40% +4.00%)
Czechia 39 L 88.07% (84.89% +3.18%)
Poland 36 G 82.09% (56.00% +26.09%)
Serbia 34 K 70.75% (68.80% +1.95%)
Italy 10 I 70.69% (60.06% +10.63%)
Türkiye 27 E 68.23% (48.21% +20.02%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 73 H 67.15% (45.20% +21.95%)
Moldova 156 I 59.18% (66.37% -7.19%)
Hungary 41 F 55.38% (44.21% +11.17%)
Ukraine 28 D 52.47% (56.12% -3.65%)
Germany 12 A 50.43% (31.25% +19.18%)
Slovakia 42 A 43.09% (42.62% +0.47%)
Iceland 74 D 42.57% (24.27% +18.03%)
Scotland 43 C 38.95% (33.35% +5.60%)
Slovenia 50 B 32.71% (28.29% +4.42%)
Greece 40 C 31.49% (32.46% -0.97%)
Denmark 20 C 28.85% (29.38% -0.53%)
Albania 66 K 27.72% (19.46% +8.26%)
Norway 31 I 23.62% (31.67% -8.05%)
Georgia 68 E 22.05% (22.22% -0.17%)
Kosovo 91 B 20.53% (8.19% +12.34%)
Armenia 103 F 20.49% (9.66% +10.83%)
Ireland 61 F 20.05% (26.51% -6.46%)
San Marino 210 H 15.19% (26.69% -11.50%)
Switzerland 17 B 12.63% (30.16% -17.53%)
Belgium 8 J 12.58% (16.11% -3.53%)
Croatia 9 L 11.87% (14.77% -2.90%)
Austria 22 H 10.19% (19.50% -9.31%)
Finland 71 G 9.15% (34.86% -25.71%)
Netherlands 7 G 8.73% (8.71% +0.02%)
Israel 76 I 6.28% (10.18% -3.90%)
Spain 1 E 5.16% (18.96% -13.80%)
Bulgaria 86 E 5.07% (14.63% -9.56%)
Portugal 5 F 4.92% (28.13% -23.21%)
Luxembourg 96 A 3.06% (19.22% -16.16%)
France 2 D 2.90% (15.60% -12.70%)
Azerbaijan 124 D 2.17% (6.24% -4.07%)
England 4 K 1.37% (8.76% -7.39%)
Belarus 100 C 1.22% (7.00% -5.78%)
Montenegro 80 L 0.32% (15.03% -14.71%)
Latvia 137 K 0.30% (3.68% -3.38%)
Faroe Islands 136 L 0.11% (0.73% -0.62%)
Cyprus 128 H 0.08% (1.48% -1.40%)
Lithuania 145 G 0.04% (0.56% -0.52%)
Andorra 174 K 0.00% (0.03% -0.03%)
Estonia 129 I 0.00% (0.14% -0.14%)
Gibraltar 200 L 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Kazakhstan 118 J 0.00% (1.44% -1.44%)
Liechtenstein 204 J 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Malta 166 G 0.00% (0.04% -0.04%)
Results
The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.
NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Los-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
FRnk Grp Win-Fin Lose-Fi Win-Sem Los-Sem Playoff
Spain 1 E 63.57% 17.83% 81.40% 18.60% 5.16%
England 4 K 58.39% 18.25% 76.64% 23.36% 1.37%
France 2 D 57.93% 20.69% 78.62% 21.38% 2.90%
Belgium 8 J 52.86% 23.69% 76.55% 23.45% 12.58%
Netherlands 7 G 51.89% 24.74% 76.63% 23.37% 8.73%
Italy 10 I 49.13% 25.51% 74.64% 25.36% 70.69%
Germany 12 A 47.29% 24.27% 71.56% 28.44% 50.43%
Portugal 5 F 46.75% 25.81% 72.56% 27.44% 4.92%
Croatia 9 L 45.49% 27.97% 73.46% 26.54% 11.87%
Switzerland 17 B 38.80% 29.14% 67.93% 32.07% 12.63%
Denmark 20 C 38.61% 29.01% 67.63% 32.37% 28.85%
Türkiye 27 E 34.05% 30.02% 64.06% 35.94% 68.23%
Ukraine 28 D 33.66% 31.48% 65.14% 34.86% 52.47%
Austria 22 H 32.78% 28.26% 61.04% 38.96% 10.19%
Serbia 34 K 30.94% 31.60% 62.54% 37.46% 70.75%
Greece 40 C 30.58% 30.52% 61.10% 38.90% 31.49%
Sweden 32 B 29.90% 26.58% 56.48% 43.52% 90.83%
Hungary 41 F 29.25% 29.97% 59.23% 40.77% 55.38%
Norway 31 I 28.62% 29.42% 58.04% 41.96% 23.62%
Wales 30 J 28.25% 27.40% 55.65% 44.35% 90.40%
Poland 36 G 28.01% 29.95% 57.96% 42.04% 82.09%
Slovenia 50 B 25.50% 27.45% 52.95% 47.05% 32.71%
Czechia 39 L 25.49% 28.98% 54.47% 45.53% 88.07%
Scotland 43 C 23.70% 27.27% 50.96% 49.04% 38.95%
Slovakia 42 A 21.03% 25.46% 46.48% 53.52% 43.09%
Romania 51 H 20.44% 23.72% 44.16% 55.84% 99.32%
Ireland 61 F 19.45% 22.09% 41.55% 58.45% 20.05%
Belarus 100 C 16.39% 18.03% 34.43% 65.57% 1.22%
Georgia 68 E 15.46% 22.40% 37.87% 62.13% 22.05%
Finland 71 G 15.30% 21.53% 36.83% 63.17% 9.15%
Albania 66 K 14.72% 24.13% 38.85% 61.15% 27.72%
North Macedonia 63 J 14.35% 21.93% 36.28% 63.72% 93.93%
Cyprus 128 H 12.50% 0.00% 12.50% 87.50% 0.08%
Israel 76 I 12.42% 21.34% 33.76% 66.24% 6.28%
Luxembourg 96 A 12.42% 19.61% 32.03% 67.97% 3.06%
Iceland 74 D 12.36% 20.41% 32.77% 67.23% 42.57%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 73 H 12.26% 20.01% 32.27% 67.73% 67.15%
Northern Ireland 72 A 11.82% 20.92% 32.73% 67.27% 95.62%
Faroe Islands 136 L 9.09% 27.27% 36.36% 63.64% 0.11%
Kosovo 91 B 8.33% 17.58% 25.91% 74.09% 20.53%
Bulgaria 86 E 7.89% 18.93% 26.82% 73.18% 5.07%
Latvia 137 K 6.67% 13.33% 20.00% 80.00% 0.30%
Armenia 103 F 6.25% 16.50% 22.74% 77.26% 20.49%
Azerbaijan 124 D 4.15% 14.29% 18.43% 81.57% 2.17%
Moldova 156 I 1.67% 10.05% 11.73% 88.27% 59.18%
San Marino 210 H 0.20% 2.30% 2.50% 97.50% 15.19%
Lithuania 145 G 0.00% 25.00% 25.00% 75.00% 0.04%
Montenegro 80 L 0.00% 21.88% 21.88% 78.13% 0.32%
Malta 166 G n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Estonia 129 I n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Kazakhstan 118 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Liechtenstein 204 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Andorra 174 K n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Gibraltar 200 L n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Not sure what happened to Malta in this simulation run, out of 4 times that they qualified, they won the final once and lost the final once, which is very surprising...
Overall Qualifying
NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify. In brackets are previous percentages from June 2025, and the change since then).
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
FRnk Grp Qual NotQual Prev Change
England 4 K 99.43% 0.57% (95.94% +3.49%)
France 2 D 98.78% 1.22% (93.83% +4.95%)
Spain 1 E 98.12% 1.88% (91.98% +6.14%)
Portugal 5 F 97.38% 2.62% (85.56% +11.82%)
Netherlands 7 G 95.03% 4.97% (94.15% +0.88%)
Croatia 9 L 93.47% 6.53% (88.42% +5.05%)
Austria 22 H 92.32% 7.68% (78.60% +13.72%)
Belgium 8 J 91.00% 9.00% (86.64% +4.36%)
Switzerland 17 B 87.66% 12.34% (60.57% +27.09%)
Norway 31 I 83.14% 16.86% (75.33% +7.81%)
Germany 12 A 73.42% 26.58% (82.76% -9.34%)
Denmark 20 C 71.82% 28.18% (61.85% +9.97%)
Italy 10 I 57.86% 42.14% (61.23% -3.37%)
Slovakia 42 A 55.75% 44.25% (33.17% +22.58%)
Sweden 32 B 36.30% 63.70% (50.57% -14.27%)
Wales 30 J 35.14% 64.86% (38.85% -3.71%)
Czechia 39 L 34.38% 65.62% (35.05% -0.67%)
Scotland 43 C 32.34% 67.66% (30.19% +2.15%)
Poland 36 G 32.15% 67.85% (25.15% +7.00%)
Türkiye 27 E 27.21% 72.79% (30.05% -2.84%)
Greece 40 C 25.58% 74.42% (33.72% -8.14%)
Serbia 34 K 23.11% 76.89% (28.85% -5.74%)
Romania 51 H 20.98% 79.02% (28.29% -7.31%)
North Macedonia 63 J 19.53% 80.47% (18.76% +0.77%)
Hungary 41 F 19.25% 80.75% (32.36% -13.11%)
Ukraine 28 D 19.07% 80.93% (30.61% -11.54%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 73 H 18.57% 81.43% (25.48% -6.91%)
Northern Ireland 72 A 14.24% 85.76% (13.71% +0.53%)
Slovenia 50 B 13.57% 86.43% (24.00% -10.43%)
Iceland 74 D 6.73% 93.27% (6.50% +0.23%)
Ireland 61 F 5.17% 94.83% (12.83% -7.66%)
Kosovo 91 B 4.58% 95.42% (3.47% +1.11%)
Georgia 68 E 4.53% 95.47% (6.80% -2.27%)
Albania 66 K 4.23% 95.77% (3.40% +0.83%)
Armenia 103 F 1.88% 98.12% (2.21% -0.33%)
Finland 71 G 1.74% 98.26% (6.45% -4.71%)
Israel 76 I 1.27% 98.73% (2.36% -1.09%)
Luxembourg 96 A 1.18% 98.82% (7.30% -6.12%)
Moldova 156 I 0.99% 99.01% (1.25% -0.26%)
Belarus 100 C 0.46% 99.54% (2.68% -2.22%)
Bulgaria 86 E 0.46% 99.54% (3.47% -3.01%)
Azerbaijan 124 D 0.11% 99.89% (0.56% -0.45%)
San Marino 210 H 0.03% 99.97% (0.02% +0.01%)
Latvia 137 K 0.02% 99.98% (0.15% -0.13%)
Cyprus 128 H 0.01% 99.99% (0.26% -0.25%)
Faroe Islands 136 L 0.01% 99.99% (0.10% -0.09%)
Andorra 174 K 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% +0.00%)
Estonia 129 I 0.00% 100.00% (0.02% -0.02%)
Gibraltar 200 L 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Kazakhstan 118 J 0.00% 100.00% (0.24% -0.24%)
Liechtenstein 204 J 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Lithuania 145 G 0.00% 100.00% (0.03% -0.03%)
Malta 166 G 0.00% 100.00% (0.01% -0.01%)
Montenegro 80 L 0.00% 100.00% (4.22% -4.22%)
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