Here's a sneak preview of what I expect the ranking will look like that will be published on Thursday. As always expect some small adjustments here and there from matches included/excluded.
The big changes are of course that Argentina has dropped to third place, and Spain is the new leader. A little bit lower down Brazil has also lost some points, and with them having finished their qualifiers we may see them drop even further to 7th place in the next couple of months. Below that, Germany is now in danger of missing not only automatic qualification in their World Cup qualifying group, but they may now also miss out being a top seed in the final draw in December 2025 with Croatia now having the best papers if they win all their remaining qualifying matches. More about the seeding prediction update in the next couple of weeks or so.
1 Spain 1875.37 1 8.28
2 France 1870.92 1 8.90
3 Argentina 1870.32 -2 -15.04
4 England 1820.44 0 7.13
5 Portugal 1779.55 1 9.02
6 Brazil 1761.60 -1 -16.09
7 Netherlands 1754.17 0 -4.01
8 Belgium 1739.54 0 3.16
9 Croatia 1714.20 1 6.69
10 Italy 1710.06 1 7.49
11 Morocco 1706.25 1 7.53
12 Germany 1704.27 -3 -12.71
13 Colombia 1692.10 1 12.65
14 Mexico 1688.38 -1 -1.35
15 Uruguay 1673.65 1 2.89
16 United States 1670.04 -1 -1.00
17 Switzerland 1648.30 1 13.21
18 Senegal 1645.23 0 10.12
19 Japan 1640.47 -2 -0.77
20 Denmark 1627.64 1 6.40
21 Iran 1616.04 -1 -8.26
22 Austria 1601.86 0 10.62
23 South Korea 1593.19 0 6.11
24 Ecuador 1588.04 1 17.36
25 Australia 1583.49 -1 4.92
26 Canada 1558.04 2 9.10
27 Türkiye 1555.72 0 2.52
28 Ukraine 1543.06 -2 -14.15
29 Panama 1529.70 0 -15.37
30 Wales 1529.09 1 0.15
31 Norway 1526.23 2 6.81
32 Sweden 1524.62 -3 -20.81
33 Russia 1521.74 2 3.21
34 Serbia 1520.90 -2 -2.13
35 Egypt 1519.18 -1 0.39
36 Poland 1517.30 1 14.90
37 Paraguay 1501.01 6 14.33
38 Algeria 1500.74 -2 -3.06
39 Czechia 1500.29 2 7.89
40 Greece 1494.72 -1 -3.10
41 Hungary 1492.18 -3 -8.56
42 Slovakia 1491.87 10 25.30
43 Scotland 1485.08 4 10.40
44 Côte d'Ivoire 1483.90 1 0.45
45 Nigeria 1483.86 -1 -0.40
46 Tunisia 1483.02 3 11.92
47 Costa Rica 1481.13 -7 -12.71
48 Peru 1469.31 -6 -20.66
49 Venezuela 1465.02 -3 -12.00
50 Slovenia 1462.96 0 -6.80
51 Romania 1462.85 -3 -11.61
52 Uzbekistan 1459.89 3 10.77
53 Cameroon 1455.42 -2 -11.55
54 Qatar 1453.65 -1 -6.20
55 South Africa 1448.66 1 5.35
56 Mali 1445.83 -2 -8.89
57 Chile 1441.66 0 0.04
58 Iraq 1422.20 0 5.15
59 Saudi Arabia 1420.65 0 5.54
60 Democratic Republic of Congo 1407.60 1 -4.50
61 Ireland 1397.52 -1 -15.24
62 Jordan 1391.33 2 3.55
63 North Macedonia 1388.50 -1 -2.29
64 United Arab Emirates 1387.65 1 7.79
65 Burkina Faso 1385.37 -2 -2.66
66 Honduras 1383.98 0 4.15
67 Albania 1380.66 1 7.51
68 Georgia 1377.32 -1 2.09
68 Jamaica 1377.22 2 14.25
70 Cape Verde Islands 1363.21 3 19.53
71 Finland 1358.72 -2 -12.84
72 Northern Ireland 1355.98 -1 4.97
73 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1344.25 -1 -4.86
74 Iceland 1343.09 0 5.16
75 Ghana 1340.84 1 7.51
76 Israel 1337.40 -1 0.89
77 Bolivia 1332.24 1 16.53
78 Oman 1320.08 1 5.66
79 Gabon 1314.06 1 7.47
79 Montenegro 1314.05 -2 -13.23
81 Guinea 1299.48 0 6.85
82 Uganda 1287.60 6 18.23
83 New Zealand 1283.94 -1 -4.92
84 Curaçao 1282.42 2 5.19
85 Zambia 1273.00 -2 -12.32
86 Bulgaria 1271.52 -2 -12.90
87 Haiti 1269.24 3 7.82
88 Angola 1268.72 -3 -10.83
89 El Salvador 1267.75 -2 -4.95
90 Bahrain 1264.82 -1 -2.14
91 Kosovo 1262.10 4 14.39
92 Benin 1257.30 4 18.33
93 Syria 1255.47 -2 -5.35
94 China 1249.06 0 -0.40
95 Equatorial Guinea 1248.68 -2 -2.91
96 Luxembourg 1242.61 -4 -17.56
97 Mozambique 1234.04 1 -2.14
98 Guatemala 1230.73 2 -4.90
99 Palestine 1230.55 -1 -5.89
100 Belarus 1223.54 -3 -13.69
101 Thailand 1222.20 1 0.13
102 Trinidad and Tobago 1220.99 -1 -8.12
103 Armenia 1219.55 2 14.78
104 Tajikistan 1206.15 2 3.61
105 Comoros 1201.83 2 3.32
106 Kyrgyzstan 1201.24 -2 -7.33
107 Tanzania 1199.41 -4 -9.82
108 Madagascar 1187.59 7 24.73
109 Namibia 1183.80 -1 -8.49
110 Mauritania 1183.28 1 10.24
111 Kenya 1181.64 -2 2.58
112 Libya 1179.57 5 24.38
113 Lebanon 1172.30 -1 -0.14
114 Vietnam 1169.92 0 0.00
115 Gambia 1165.93 8 24.57
116 Sudan 1163.56 -6 -10.03
117 Niger 1158.74 4 10.52
118 Kazakhstan 1158.06 -4 -7.43
119 Indonesia 1157.94 -1 3.39
120 Togo 1151.08 0 1.59
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
122 Sierra Leone 1150.10 2 10.04
123 Malaysia 1148.23 2 9.75
123 Azerbaijan 1148.09 -2 0.09
125 Zimbabwe 1133.75 -9 -23.70
126 Malawi 1133.60 3 12.50
127 Rwanda 1133.50 0 8.03
128 Cyprus 1128.10 0 3.74
129 Estonia 1127.20 -3 -4.14
130 Guinea-Bissau 1126.81 1 7.28
131 Surinam 1125.21 5 25.23
132 Nicaragua 1120.78 -2 0.75
133 Congo 1119.77 -1 3.51
134 India 1118.19 -1 4.97
135 Kuwait 1100.34 3 1.47
136 Faroe Islands 1094.46 5 4.72
137 Latvia 1088.80 0 -10.49
138 Turkmenistan 1087.97 2 -4.43
139 Botswana 1087.27 -4 -13.93
140 Central African Republic 1081.36 -6 -26.18
141 Burundi 1077.05 -2 -15.46
142 Dominican Republic 1074.46 0 -2.32
143 Philippines 1066.35 0 0.00
144 Liberia 1065.61 0 -2.69
145 Lithuania 1065.34 -2 -3.86
146 Hong Kong 1047.36 1 0.45
147 Ethiopia 1046.41 -1 -14.21
148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
149 St. Kitts and Nevis 1041.53 0 0.00
150 New Caledonia 1039.55 0 0.00
151 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
152 Fiji 1035.11 -2 -8.33
153 Lesotho 1034.10 -5 -12.24
154 Yemen 1021.25 0 0.00
155 Puerto Rico 1020.44 0 0.00
156 Moldova 1019.20 -2 -9.06
156 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
158 Singapore 1013.34 1 -3.95
159 Eswatini 1010.06 -4 -12.81
160 Myanmar 1004.15 0 0.09
161 Afghanistan 998.88 0 -2.50
162 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
163 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
164 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
165 Bermuda 988.72 -3 -11.32
166 Malta 982.43 2 5.00
167 Cuba 980.33 0 0.00
168 Grenada 978.40 0 0.00
169 South Sudan 976.56 0 0.96
170 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
171 Maldives 968.59 0 2.84
172 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 962.43 0 0.00
173 Taiwan 960.81 -1 -3.25
174 Andorra 954.68 0 0.73
175 Chad 925.82 0 1.22
176 Nepal 923.02 0 -0.23
177 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
178 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
179 Mauritius 912.24 -2 -9.37
180 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
181 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
182 Dominica 901.37 0 0.00
183 Brunei 900.62 0 0.00
184 Bangladesh 899.24 0 0.23
185 Laos 890.35 0 0.00
186 Bhutan 888.94 0 0.00
187 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
188 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
189 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
190 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
193 Djibouti 855.91 -2 -9.85
194 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
195 Timor Leste 855.36 0 0.00
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 854.76 -4 -10.33
197 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
198 Sri Lanka 852.30 -2 -2.84
199 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
200 Pakistan 829.41 0 0.00
201 Gibraltar 827.19 -1 -7.98
202 Somalia 824.76 -1 -7.37
203 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
204 Seychelles 812.32 0 -8.38
205 Liechtenstein 808.48 0 -3.18
206 Bahamas 807.36 0 0.00
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.86 0 -0.12
208 US Virgin Islands 781.08 0 1.37
209 British Virgin Islands 768.50 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 758.52 0 0.00
211 San Marino 733.23 0 -5.01
Appreciate the work mate.
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping this blog updated
ReplyDeleteThanks for the support Uruguay Fan and AlCaMz! I'm actually behind with a number of things and trying to catch up as I'm modernizing my software which is a big job, besides trying to do my day job. Before the next international match window in October I expect to be caught up in order to publish updates for 2026 World Cup qualifying simulations and seeding pot prediction.
ReplyDeleteYou had me at WC simulations and seeding pots.
ReplyDeleteActually Homer are you across the details of the draw yet or are they not 100% released yet?
For example are we certain those 4 euro repecharge winners will go into pot 4?
Well, I don't know if it has been officially announced anywhere but I think the assumption is that it'll be exactly like the 2022 edition where the seeding was by the FIFA ranking order (this time the November 2025 one which I've predicted and will predict again using expected results), and playoff winners were seeded in pot 4. So that's what I'm working with here: http://www.football-rankings.info/2025/07/2026-world-cup-seeding-pots-update-2025.html. So as I mentioned, I'll update this before the next matches scheduled for October.
DeleteThanks for the great work Homer. I always look forward to your posts! Let’s go 🇨🇦
ReplyDeleteThanks for the support Anthony, much appreciated!
DeleteIf some decisions weren't strange before, they're definitely strange now! I certainly wasn't expecting that FIFA would exclude the final and third/fourth place matches of the CAFA Nations Cup. All other matches in the tournament were included, but not those. Strangely if you check the official FIFA ranking page you'll see Iran and India have 4 results, but Uzbekistan and Oman have 3. And if you expand the details for Iran and India you'll see matches without a score against an unknown opponent. So I wonder if this is a technical mistake or if they only partially wiped the results.
ReplyDeleteAs for the other differences:
Official Status Removed:
2025-05-20 Oman v Niger (probably unofficial Niger team)
Excluded Matches
2025-08-13 Turks and Caicos v US Virgin Islands (unofficial unsanctioned tournament or non-partial referees?)
2025-09-04 United Arab Emirates v Syria (unknown)
2025-09-08 United Arab Emirates v Bahrain (unknown)
2025-09-08 India v Oman (too many matches in period?)
2025-09-08 Uzbekistan v Iran (too many matches in period?)
"FIFA announced Oman’s rating as 1320.34 and Niger’s as 1160.33. However, after excluding the match between Oman and Niger, the recalculated ratings are 1320.43 for Oman and 1160.30 for Niger, showing discrepancies of 0.09 and 0.03 points respectively. How did you arrive at these figures?
DeleteHi HAHA, given your username, let me start with the smart guy answer, which is, by already calculating the ranking for many, many years! Ha-ha!
DeleteBut seriously, Oman's starting ranking from the 10 July ranking was 1314.412559...
1) Removing points awarded for win against Niger (1.666451...) = 1312.746108...
2) Adding points for draw with Uzbekistan (0.639641...) = 1313.385749...
3) Adding points for win against Kyrgyzstan (4.002699...) = 1317.388447...
4) Adding points for win against Turkmenistan (2.954375...) = 1320.342822..., in others words, 1320.34, "exactly" what FIFA has published.
Niger's starting ranking was 1148.224401...
1) Adding points removed for loss to Oman (1.666451...) = 1149.890852...
2) Removing points for loss against Guinea (-1.831881...) = 1148.058971...
3) Removing points for loss against Uganda (-1.922987...) = 1146.135984...
4) Adding points for draw against South Africa (1.296147...) = 1147.432131...
5) Adding points for draw against Algeria (1.485508...) = 1148.917639...
6) Removing points for loss to Morocco (-2.696342...) = 1146.221297...
7) Adding points for win against Tanzania (14.106083...) = 1160.327380..., in others words, 1160.33, "exactly" what FIFA has published.
This is all rounding to 6 significant digits after the decimal point, I work with far more numbers but I want to save my fingers typing...
Oh, thank you. I had simply excluded the match between Oman and Niger from the calculation, so Oman's starting rating was 1312.831. But for the three matches between May 28 and June 10, the calculation had to be done as if the Oman–Niger match had not been excluded! By keeping those rating values intact, the starting point became 1312.746 instead of 1312.831, and based on that, Oman's final rating came out to 1320.34. Applying the same method to Niger also resulted in 1160.33. That was the key insight! 😊
Delete