2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Only one year left

Next update: In 2017. (After the publishing dates for 2017 are announced, with sims).

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.5 time frame (games played between 12 and 24 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago. This is the final straight - the most important time frame.

AFC MA Ranking update (21 October 2016)

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This has been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.

2018 World Cup simulations (14 October 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 13 October 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

FIFA Ranking: October 2016 final preview

2 matches left before the deadline - both friendlies (actually AFF Championship qualifiers).

FIFA will publish the ranking on 20 October.

UEFA Nations League update (14 October 2016)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

AFC MA Ranking update (14 October 2016)

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This has been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.

2018 World Cup simulations

Finally found some time and energy today to write the code for the Russia 2018 simulations.

They are based on the current Elo ratings and include results up to 6 October 2016.