Is there a regional bias in the elo rating ?

An interesting question popped up in the discussions around my World Cup simulations and more specific the somewhat lower than expected predicted performance of Senegal compared to home nation Qatar in group A. 

Amir commented:

"Elo indeed has a regional problem - since there are not many matches between teams from different confederations, it takes a long time for ELO to adjust to the actual average per confederation.

If the difference are getting smaller (which is something worth testing), it means that Elo will indeed under-estimate CAF."

Apart from the difficulty to determine the "actual average per confederation", I personally have the impression that elo ratings are not regionally biased, because there isn't anything in the elo calculation that's influenced by the team's confederation. But maybe, indeed the number of intraconfederational versus interconfederational matches a team playes could be the exogenous factor. I decided to give it a go and research this.

FIFA World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2022)

In case you hadn't noticed, the World Cup in Qatar is to be played next month. The tournament was already 10 years ago assigned to a country without any football tradition. It is proven in the meantime that a large part of FIFA's Executive Committee, that would choose the hosts for the two upcoming tournaments in 2018 and 2022 in a closed voting session, was bribed with large amounts of money and other privileges (one only has to think about Platini's son and his sudden career moves). 

FIFA ranking: October 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday October 6th. This final preview contains 171 matches, out of 181 matches played since August 22nd.

One team dropped to a new low:

Liechtenstein (196 - 194 in June 2022)

FIFA ranking: October 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 159 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including October 2nd, used to calculate the October 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since August 22nd, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

FIFA ranking October 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 6th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: October 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday October 6th. This ranking will include the matches in the September window in the conclusion of the UEFA Nations League group stage plus a lot of (preparatory) friendlies for WC-participants all over the world. Also the Melanesian Cup will be played again -for the first time in 22 years- in Vanuatu.

The originally scheduled match days three and four of AFCON 2023 qualifying are recently postponed to next March because the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire is also postponed from July 2023 to January 2024, again with the argument that football in July in the Tropics is not a good idea. Now this window is used to give the African participants at the World Cup the opportunity for some much needed interconfederational practice.

FIFA ranking: August 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on Thursday August 25th. This final preview contains 53 matches, out of 55 matches played since June 20th. There are no more matches scheduled until the deadline of the ranking.

Three smaller (regional) tournaments were played in Africa and Asia:

• COSAFA Cup
• East Asian Championship
• first round play-off qualifiers for the African Nations Championship