FIFA ranking: July 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish the second official ranking of 2023 this Thursday July 20th. I consider the ranking published in June as an intermediate ranking as it contains flaws: at least the final of the Intercontinental Cup in India and the final and third place play-off of the Central Asian Nations Cup should have been included. The intermediate ranking was published solely for the draw of the African qualification groups for the WC 2026 last week.

Another thing that Andrea pointed out: Samoa, Tonga and American Samoa played their last official match 4 years ago, in July 2019. They should be excluded from the ranking from now on, until they have played again. That could be at the Pacific games in November.

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (June 2023)

Last week the match days three and four of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. And see here for the simulation results after the first two match days.

FIFA ranking: July 2023 probable ranking

The July 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday July 20th, will only be the second ranking of 2023. It seems FIFA decided from now on to publish a ranking only after a NT window has been completed. In this case, immediately following the June window, the Gold Cup will be played so the publication was delayed a bit more to mid July to be able to include that continental final tournament.

FIFA ranking: July 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 222 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including July 16th, used to calculate the July 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since April 3rd, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023 10.000 simulations

This Summer the only continental showdown to be played is the Gold Cup 2023. From the Nations League 2023 group stage 12 teams have qualified and Qatar is once again the strange guest, or should I say well-rewarded sponsor? The last three participants are determined in three paths of one-off play-off matches (two semi finals and a final) to be played one week before the main tournament starts.

The USA is once again the host, although the first match of Canada in group D (yes, one match only!) is played in Toronto.

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (April 2023)

In March the first two match days of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including the UNL Final Four and currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.

FIFA ranking: April 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this first ranking of 2023 next Thursday April 6th. This final preview contains 262 matches, out of 284 matches played since December 19th 2022. Due to Brazil's unexpected friendly loss to Morocco, world champion Argentina is the new top dog, closely followed by France and Brazil.

Included in this ranking will be the final of a friendly three nations tournament in Nepal between host country Nepal and Laos, played coming Friday. The points of each team after this match, depending on the match result: