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Thursday, August 21, 2008

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (21 August 2008)

22 August 2008

I divided the number of points for the 2010 World Cup qualifiers by the number of games each team will play in their group - amirbachar's idea. Thanks!

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland and Ukraine - automatically qualified as hosts).

Only one match played in UEFA: Kazakhstan - Andorra 3 - 0.

1 Spain 23503
2 Germany 23472
3 Italy 22017
4 Croatia 21556
5 Netherlands 21445
6 Portugal 20259
7 Czech Republic 20251
8 France 19650
9 Russia 19526
10 Romania 19464
11 England 19458
12 Turkey 19387
13 Sweden 19335
14 Greece 18684
15 Switzerland 17794
16 Bulgaria 17518
17 Israel 17451
18 Norway 17159
19 Scotland 16771
20 Serbia 16731
21 Denmark 16601
22 Finland 15627
23 Ireland 15187
24 Slovakia 15187
25 Austria 14800
26 Northern Ireland 14437
27 Belgium 13565
28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 13464
29 Lithuania 13291
30 Hungary 12607
31 Wales 12534
32 Latvia 12442
33 Belarus 12214
34 Macedonia 12059
35 Slovenia 11921
36 Albania 11659
37 Cyprus 11231
38 Estonia 10892
39 Georgia 10859
40 Moldova 10774
41 Kazakhstan 10350
42 Armenia 9884
43 Liechtenstein 9201
44 Iceland 9054
45 Azerbaijan 7700
46 Malta 7637
47 Luxembourg 6292
48 Andorra 6257
49 Faroe Islands 5320
50 San Marino 4703
51 Montenegro 0


  1. HI Edgar,
    for my virtual calculations I will use this modified formula:

    -WC2006points: points earned in world cup 2006 matches (final phase + qualification).
    -WC2006MP: matches played in world cup 2006 (final phase + qualification).
    -EC2008points: points earned in european cup 2008 matches (final phase + qualification).
    -EC2008MP: matches played in european cup 2008 (final phase + qualification).
    -WC2010points: points earned in world cup 2010 matches (qualification).
    -WC2010MP: matches actually played in world cup 2010 (qualification).
    -AK: adjustment coefficient : EC2008MP/WC2010TMP (TMP= final number of matches that a team had to play in the group, i.e. Kazakhstan=10 matches): i.e. Kazakhstan AK = 14/10 = 1.4, Russian AK = 17/10 = 1.7. I've assumed this coefficient to restore the correct weighting of points earned in WC qualifiers respect EC qualifiers (in the final formula wc2010 and ec2008 coefficients weigthing is 40% and 40%). Without this coefficient indeed the points gained in wc2010 count only 0.29% of the total EC2008+WC2010 (Kazakhstan played 14 matches in EC2008 and only 10 in the WC2010 group).

    total calculation for Kazakhstan (after 21 august):
    [(118506/12)*1+(235011+41503*1.4)/(14+1)*2]/3= 16319 (+1836 respect
    Kazakhstan coefficient at the end of euro 2008 (14483))

    whith this formula a coefficient will decrease after a loss and increase after a win and in my opinion we returns values more similar to final coefficients.
    What do you think about that?

  2. Hi jos235,

    I've been on holiday for three days with no internet access.


    You have some errors in your formula.

    The actual UEFA formula looks like this:


    Looking at your coefficient adjustment...

    When Kazakhstan play all their WC2010 matches, with your formula (dividing by 5 now, not by 3) you'll have different values when compared with the official formula.

    If you substract the official formula from yours, you'll get:

    (EC2008points+WC2010points*EC2008MP/WC2010MP)/(EC2008MP+WC2010MP) - EC2008points/EC2008MP+WC2010points/WC2010MP

    That's not 0, so you'll have different values.

    Of course, I may be wrong...

  3. HI Edgar,
    you're right, the formula was wrong.

    The correct formula is:

    I made a sample (calculation for ukraine at the end of EC2008qual):

    UEFA formula (EC2004*1+WC2006*2+EC2008*2)/5:


    with my formula (AK=17/12=1,416666667):


    so the result is the same.

    I think i'll made a complete ranking list after matches of september.

  4. i forgot...

    now the AK coefficient should be calculated in this way:

    EC2008MP/WC2010AMP (AMP= actual number of matches that a team played in the group)

  5. Hi jos235!

    You're using the same formula, only you're writing it in a different way. :)




    = (replacing AK with EC2008MP/WC2010AMP)


    As you can see it's the same formula as the one used by UEFA.

    I use this formula:


    WC2010GM = WC 2010 group matches. For Kazakhstan it's 10.

  6. Hi Edgar,
    I've checked and in fact even this works well (Kazakhstan coefficient after one match is too hight).

    But finally i found a solution and is simpler than that I adopted the first:

    I use 100% uefa formula (1+2+2)/5;
    For determining the WC2010 coefficient i proceed in this way:
    -the EC2008 points is divided for MP (i.e. KAZ=235011/14=16786,5)we get the EC2008 coeff;
    -this number is multiplied for WC2010 matches (KAZ=16786,5*10=167865); this is the initial coefficient;
    -after every match, the EC2008 coeff is subtratted and the points gained in the match are summed (i.e. KAZ after the match with AND=167865-16786,5+41503=192581,5;
    -the points are divided by WC2010 matches and we get the "actualized" coefficient (KAZ=192581/10=19258).
    with this procedure, at the end of the wc2010 qualifying the EC2008 coeff will have been completely removed and we get the "pure" UEFA final coefficient.
    As soon i've the time I'll post an exel file with the ranking list.

    For Montenegro, I think I'll use simply points/10 (the same that you use). So the Montenegro coefficient will be "normalized" only at the end of wc2010 qual.

  7. With 19258, Kazakhstan would be in the second pot. I still like amirbachar's idea better.

    Good luck tough! ;)

  8. Edgar,don't compare it with amirbachar's list! It's obviously that my coefficients are bigger than amirbachar's because for wc2010 you divide the points for 10 even if a team played only one match! But my coefficient are bigger for all nations, not only for KAZ because with this formula i made a final "distorted coefficient" while amirbachar's coeff increase after every single match until the end of qualifying!

    please note that 19258 is only the 3rd KAZ coefficient (WC2010)! For total coefficient we have to do:

  9. OK then. Let me know when you'll post the entire list.

  10. Unfortunately, the defect has to be a bit complicated....
    I believe that a complete list will clarify things better.

    I wish you a good day, Edgar :)

  11. Thanks jos235. A good day to you too!

  12. Hi Edgar,
    As i promised I post the excel file( with the ranking obtained from my "virtual formula".

    It works pefectly!!
    To update it after every match I have to sum the points gained with those already present in the column "WC2010Q", adding 1 match more in the "MP" column and the coefficient is done!(see Kazakhstan and andorra)

    Please note that coefficient of all the teams which have not yet played is the same you published in the list of 29 july (end of european championships).

    Summary of method of calculation:

    UEFA formula:(c1+c2*2+c3*2)/5;

    c1 and c2 calculated according to UEFA rules;

    c3 = (c1+c2*2)/3*WC2010EM-(c1+c2*2)/3*WC2010MP+WC2010points;

    (c1+c2*2)/3*WC2010EM (EM=expected matches,10 or 8 for NED-SCO-NOR-MKD-ISL group): this is the "inizial coefficient";

    (c1+c2*2)/3: this is the "average points" that we have to subtract to the initial coefficient after every match;

    the impact of the "initial coefficient" will decrease after every match until it becomes 0 at the end of WC2010 qualifying, remaining only the points gained in WC2010 matches.
    We get to the end the same coefficient of the real UEFA formula.


    for Montenegro (no previous coefficients) I use simply WC2010MP/10;

    In my opinion, the amirbachar's idea has one defect: coefficients are too influenced by the number of matches that a team has played;
    follow what I say:
    for example, we can suppose that a team "A" played six matches, and it lost all these matches 1-0 (9500 points each one).
    A team "B" played 3 matches instead, with this results: two 0-0 draws (20000 points each one) and a 0-3 defeat (8500).
    So we have (with amirbachar's idea):Team A WC2010 coefficient: (9500*6)/10=5700Team B WC2010 coefficient: ((20000+20000+8500)/10=4850
    The wc2010 coefficient of team B,despite two draws and a defeat, is worse than the team B that has lost all matches!

  13. Nice idea jos235!

    I took a look at the file you posted. It's a bit too complicated for my taste, but I think you're right about the flaw in amirbachar's idea. However, I'll stick to his idea and here's why: first of all it's simpler and easier to follow, second: a country's coefficient can only go up with his method, thus it's easier to see who could you overtake in the rankings.

    Best of luck with your system. It's always good to see more people interested!

  14. I agree with you that the amirbachar's idea is simpler and easier to follow, while the mine is a little complicated.
    Anyway, if you want, I post my list after every match day for a confrontation.

    Have a nice day, Edgar