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Friday, September 26, 2008

EURO 2016 scenarios

According to Franz Beckenbauer, UEFA looks set to expand the EURO championship to 24 teams from 2016.

Let's look at the possible qualifying systems:

Assumptions

1. League format, no preliminary rounds to restrict the number of participants.
2. No more than 8 teams in a group.
3. No less than 4 teams in a group.
4. No more than 3 teams qualifying out of a group.
5. No worst runners-up (or third placed teams) stay at home (as much as possible)
6. Final tournament will have six groups of four teams with the top two in each group and the best four teams in third place advancing to the last 16.

One host scenario (France)

With 52 members associations competing for 23 places, there are 6 options.

1. 8 groups (4 x 6, 4 x 7)

Top two from each group and the best six teams in third place advance. The other two play-off for the final spot.

2. 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

3. 10 groups (8 X 5, 2 X 6)

Top two from each group advance. The best six teams in third place play-off for the final three spots. The other four stay at home.

4. 11 groups (3 x 4, 8 x 5)

Top two from each group advance. The best two teams in third place play-off for the final spot. The other nine stay at home.

5. 12 groups (8 X 4, 4 x 5)

Winners and the best ten runners-up up advance. The other two play-off for the final spot.

6. 13 groups (13 X 4)

Winners and the best seven runners-up up advance. The other six play-off for the final three spots.

Assuming the top 23 nations in the current UEFA coefficient ranking qualify, these would be the final tournament pots:

Pot 1: France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Croatia
Pot 2: England, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Sweden, Russia
Pot 3: Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Israel, Ukraine, Scotland
Pot 4: Denmark, Switzerland, Serbia, Bulgaria, Norway, Ireland



Two host scenario (Sweden and Norway)

With 51 members associations competing for 22 places, there are 5 options.

1. 8 groups (5 X 6, 3 X 7)

Top two from each group and the best four teams in third place advance. The other four play-off for the final two spots.

2. 9 groups (3 X 5, 6 X 6)

Top two from each group advance. The best eight teams in third place play-off for the final four spots. The other one stays at home.

3. 10 groups (9 X 5, 1 x 6)

Top two from each group advance. The best four teams in third place play-off for the final two spots. The other six stays at home.

4. 11 groups (4 X 4, 7 X 5)

Top two from each group advance.

5. 12 groups (9 X 4, 3 x 5)

Winners and the best eight runners-up up advance. The other four play-off for the final two spots.

Assuming the top 22 nations in the UEFA coefficient ranking qualify, these would be the final tournament pots:

Pot 1: Sweden, Norway, Spain, Germany, Italy, Netherlands
Pot 2: Croatia,England, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, France
Pot 3: Russia, Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Israel, Ukraine
Pot 4: Scotland, Denmark, Switzerland, Serbia, Bulgaria, Ireland

4 comments:

  1. Why are there no 8-team groups?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Because you'd have to qualify more than 3 teams from a group.

    There would be 7 groups and 22 or 23 available places - so more than 3 from each group.

    ReplyDelete
  3. OK yes, I see that's your assumption no 4. Is it one you're confident about, or just a guess? Personally I don't see that it would be a problem...

    ReplyDelete
  4. UEFA confirmed it will use the traditional format with groups of 5 and 6 teams. See the updated EURO 2016 qualifying scenarios.

    ReplyDelete