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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

2010 WC: Seeding formula based on the latest FIFA Rankings (17 December 2008)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.

Qualified teams determined using only the latest FIFA rankings.

December 2008 now set in the formula. Only one part left: the November 2009 ranking.

Things looking up for England at the moment.

Chile/Greece replace Ecuador/Bulgaria.
 1 Germany        60.3 30.3 30.0
2 Brazil 58.3 29.3 29.0
3 Italy 56.7 27.3 29.3
4 Spain 56.3 25.3 31.0
5 England 50.0 26.3 23.7
6 Argentina 49.7 21.0 28.7
7 France 46.7 23.3 23.3
--------------------------------
8 Portugal 44.7 22.3 22.3
9 Netherlands 42.7 14.7 28.0
10 Croatia 34.0 9.0 25.0
11 Mexico 32.7 19.3 13.3
12 Turkey 31.7 10.0 21.7
13 USA 28.3 13.7 14.7
14 Paraguay 28.3 11.7 16.7
15 Czech Republic 28.3 6.0 22.3
16 Russia 24.0 3.0 21.0
17 Ghana 22.7 13.3 9.3
18 Japan 21.0 13.3 7.7
19 Korea Republic 20.7 15.7 5.0
20 Cameroon 20.3 3.0 17.3
21 Australia 18.7 11.3 7.3
22 Nigeria 18.3 2.7 15.7
23 Greece 16.7 0.0 16.7
24 Egypt 15.0 0.0 15.0
25 Israel 15.0 0.0 15.0
26 Cote d'Ivoire 14.7 6.0 8.7
27 Uruguay 14.7 2.7 12.0
28 Saudi Arabia 10.0 8.0 2.0
29 Iran 10.0 5.3 4.7
30 Chile 6.3 0.0 6.3
31 Honduras 4.3 0.0 4.3
32 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1.0
Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

The pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Israel, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Turkey
Pot 3: Australia, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA
Pot 4: Cameroon, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Chile
Group B: Argentina, Israel, Korea Republic, Egypt
Group C: France, Greece, Australia, Ghana
Group D: Spain, Portugal, Mexico, Uruguay
Group E: Brazil, Croatia, Iran, Cote d'Ivoire
Group F: Italy, Czech Republic, USA, Paraguay
Group G: England, Netherlands, Japan, Cameroon
Group H: Germany, Turkey, Honduras, Nigeria

2 comments:

  1. I think your USA coefficient for the World Cups is wrong.

    Or, of course, I have the wrong formula being used.

    To my understanding, one used the same formula as last time, which was:

    50% Past two World Cups (1/3 oldest, 2/3 newest)
    50% End of Year FIFA Rankings (1/3 each).

    So, for the USA:
    02 WC: Made the quarterfinals, but had the worst record of any of the three quarterfinals teams (least points). So give us 8 and 25 points *.333 = 8.3325

    06 WC: Out in Group, 1 point. Tied with 6 other teams for 24th. Tunisia had the best GD, ours is tied for 2nd with Iran, so give us 25 and we have: 25th = 7 pts.
    7 x .6667 = 4.6669

    4.6669 + 8.3325 = 12.9994

    You've got us with 13.7 points from WC. This makes no sense at all.

    You are either giving the US a 24th place finish for '06 (ahead of Tunisia, who had the same record and a better GD), or somehow have us finishing as 5th in 2002, ahead of other quarterfinalists who had better records.

    So, are you wrong or am I?

    Please post your rationale for splits for each WC to avoid future foul ups.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You get 8 points for 2006, not 7.

    See this pdf document.

    ReplyDelete