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Friday, January 8, 2010

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (8 January 2010)

The draw for the 2012 ACN qualifiers will take place a couple of days after the final of ACN 2010, probably after February 3rd, the day of the first FIFA ranking release for 2010.

More info on the seeding and draw procedure.

With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up qualifying.

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Benin, Mali, Togo, Mozambique, Zambia
Pot 2: Malawi, Morocco, Guinea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Uganda, South Africa, Senegal, Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Angola, Tanzania
Pot 3: Namibia, Congo DR, Gambia, Zimbabwe, Libya, Botswana, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Chad, Burundi, Lesotho, Madagascar
Pot 4: Liberia, Mauritania, Eritrea, Niger, Seychelles, Comoros, Mauritius, Somalia, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Central African Republic, Sao Tome e Principe

I think there won't be any friendly matches during Angola 2010, so the last two pots are pretty much set in stone. Only Gambia can improve their position if they don't lose against Tunisia tomorrow.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Cameroon, Angola, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Algeria, Congo, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Nigeria, Senegal, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Burkina Faso, Uganda, Ethiopia, Comoros
Group 8: Tunisia, Sudan, Botswana, Seychelles
Group 9: Benin, Rwanda, Libya, Niger
Group 10: Mali, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 11: Togo, Guinea, Gambia, Mauritania
Group 12: Mozambique, Morocco, Congo DR, Liberia
Group 13: Zambia, Malawi, Namibia


  1. I have a non-football question to you Edgar. When do Orthodox-Romanian celebrate Christmas - December 24th or January 7th?

  2. Edgar,

    Happy 2010!

    I never followed a CAN Qualifying before, but it wouldn't be better having 9 groups of 4 and 5 groups of 3, with the group winners advancing?

    Best regards,

  3. December 25th, because the Romanian Orthodox Church follows the Revised Julian calendar. The Protestant believers (Baptist, Evangelical, Pentecostal etc) also celebrate Christmas on December 25th.


    Yes, that's an option too, but CAF seem to favor having as many groups of 4 teams as possible.

  4. Are these the groups already done? Or are these just some groups you have invented?

  5. For the 2008 qualifying, CAF didn't draw the teams, it just placed them in groups - the top seed from the first pot being grouped with the weakest team from each of the other three pots.

    The groups are not final yet, because Angola 2010 is not over yet and Togo's withdrawal will slightly complicate matters.

  6. thanks for that. what is your opinion on senegal reaching the nations cup in 2012?

  7. I really depends on the top seed in your group. If it's Algeria - your chances would be good. At the moments it's Nigeria, it's gonna be tough.

  8. Happy new year Edgar,

    you seem to rank Algeria as the weekest of the seeded teams for the CAN 2012, even weaker than Mozambique, Mali, Benin and Togo. Is there a raison for that?. A defeat against Malawi was under severe climate conditions, playing at 14h45 in summer with a temperature of 33 degrees and a humidity exceeding 80%. We payed the fact to play a single game after the opening ceremony and three games the following day. It is the only game in the tournament to be played at that time. All the others matches are scheduled either at 17h00 or 19h30.

    Due to the many surprises in the first matches at each groups, mainly problems for leading teams in Fifa ranking from Africa (except Egypt), we wish to have a probable ranking after the second games (to be finished 17 January) to have an impression about the impacts. I can't wait til January 29. I think that Malawi has done a big advance in Fifa ranking after defeating Algeria and making draw against Egypt and Ghana despite their recent loss against Angola.

  9. No, I don't think Algeria are the weakest among the top seeds.

    Let me explain. Senegal is 4th from the bottom in the second pot. That means they will be placed in the group of the 4th seed. Benin, Malawi, Mozambique etc are not likely to reach that position. So it's between Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana and Algeria.

    At the moment, based on their results, Algeria look the weakest of the bunch - I might be wrong though as I didn't watch a single game of Algeria in the last ... 10 years :)

  10. Great I understand this. The ranking of teams in first pot (seeded teams can be changed a lot after the COCAN 2010). the same applies for the qualified teams to this competition for pot 2 like Malawi and Angola. A team from pot 1 with 3 losses in COCAN can be easily be found in pot2. even teams qualified to the second round will not ensure a progress in FIFA ranking.

    You will have the occasion to watch Algeria in the COCAN and in the Fifa Worldcup too.

    Hope to see your probable ranking after first round of the COCAN. Winds of changes are blowing on Africa these days.

  11. The seeding table for the top 20 won't undergo major changes, because as far as I can tell, teams are ordered by:

    Total points
    CAN 2010 bonus points
    CAN 2010 group stage points
    2010 FIFA World Cup final qualifying group stage points
    Latest FIFA ranking (published on February 3rd)

    Of course, that's based on the method used in 2006 for the 2008 preliminaries. CAF might very well change it or even include the 2010 WCQ first group stage points.