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Monday, January 25, 2010

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (24 January 2010)

These are the groups (in 2006 there was no actual draw - see the seeding and draw procedure used in 2006) based on matches up to and including January 21st.

There are plenty of questions though.

Because I've seen some people didn't understand the system CAF used in 2006 for the 2008 ACN preliminaries, I'll try to give more details in this post.

Here's the ranking after January 24th.

The seeding formula is the sum of:
  • 2010 WCQ points
  • bonus for qualifying for the 2010 WC (6 points)
  • 2010 ACN group stage points
  • 2010 ACN performance bonus (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)
The rest of the teams will be ranked using the January 2010 FIFA ranking (to be published by FIFA on February 3rd).

Order of columns:

1 - Rank in the 2012 ACN seeding
2 - Team
3 - January 2010 CAF ranking (i.e. FIFA ranking within CAF)
4 - Points in the last group stage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers
5 - Bonus points for FIFA World Cup qualification (6 points)
6 - Angola 2010 group stage points
7 - Angola 2010 bonus points (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)

If teams are tied, these are the tie-breaking criteria:

1 - Angola 2010 bonus points
2 - Angola 2010 group stage points
3 - 2010 World Cup bonus points
4 - 2010 World Cup points in the last group stage
5 - January 2010 FIFA Ranking

The first seed (ranked 1st) will be group with the lowest ranked seed from each of the other three pots. This means Group 1 will feature teams ranked 1st, 26th, 39th and 51st, Group 2 will feature teams ranked 2nd, 25th, 38th and 50th and so on, with Group 13 featuring only 3 teams ranked 13th, 14th and 27th.
 1 Algeria                   5 13 6 4 6 29
2 Côte d'Ivoire 4 16 6 4 3 29
3 Ghana 6 13 6 3 6 28
4 Nigeria 3 12 6 6 3 27
5 Cameroon 2 13 6 4 3 26
6 Egypt 1 13 0 9 3 25
7 Tunisia 10 11 0 3 14
8 Mali 9 9 0 4 13
9 Burkina Faso 8 12 0 1 13
10 Zambia 15 5 0 4 3 12
11 Benin 12 10 0 1 11
12 Angola 19 0 0 5 3 8
13 Mozambique 17 7 0 1 8
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14 Togo 13 8 0 0 8
15 Malawi 16 4 0 3 7
16 Morocco 11 3 0 3
17 Guinea 20 3 0 3
18 Kenya 30 3 0 3
19 Rwanda 25 2 0 2
20 Sudan 27 1 0 1
21 Uganda 14
22 South Africa 18
23 Senegal 21
24 Gambia 22
25 Cape Verde Islands 23
26 Congo 24
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27 Tanzania 26
28 Namibia 28
29 Congo DR 29
30 Libya 31
31 Zimbabwe 32
32 Botswana 33
33 Ethiopia 34
34 Sierra Leone 35
35 Swaziland 36
36 Chad 38
37 Burundi 39
38 Lesotho 40
39 Madagascar 41
------------------------------------------
40 Liberia 42
41 Mauritania 43
42 Niger 44
43 Eritrea 45
44 Comoros 46
45 Seychelles 47
46 Mauritius 48
47 Somalia 49
48 Djibouti 50
49 Guinea-Bissau 51
50 Central African Republic 52
51 Sao Tome e Principe 53
Zambia can't reach the top 6. Even if they win the whole thing, they will have only 21 points. If they knock-out Nigeria, they'll climb to 7th. The last three teams in the first pot are also set in stone.
There's also a South Africa - Zimbabwe friendly on January 27th. This result won't affect South Africa's position in the seeding list as they can't overtake Uganda and they can't fall behind Senegal. Zimbabwe on the other hand can overtake Libya with a draw and they could further pass by Congo DR and Namibia with a win.

If CAF use the same system as 4 years ago and no team withdraws from the qualifiers, one group is already set - Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania.

We also have some fixed match-ups:

Benin - Morocco
Angola - Malawi
Congo - Madagascar
Cape Verde Islands - Lesotho
Gambia - Burundi
Senegal - Chad
South Africa - Swaziland
Uganda - Sierra Leone
Sudan - Ethiopia
Rwanda - Botswana

These are the groups based on the system used 4 years ago and results up to and including January 24th:

Group 1: Algeria, Congo, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Côte d'Ivoire, Cape Verde Islands, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Ghana, Gambia, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Nigeria, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Cameroon, South Africa, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Tunisia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Mali, Rwanda, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 10: Zambia, Guinea, Libya, Niger
Group 11: Benin, Morocco, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Angola, Malawi, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania

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