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Friday, November 19, 2010

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (19 November 2010)

The qualifying format has been approved by FIFA and the May 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams.

Cuba and Antigua and Barbuda replace Puerto Rico and Barbados in the second pot.

Best movers:

7 - Cuba
4 - Antigua and Barbuda
3 - Panama and Suriname

Worst movers:

-5 - Barbados and Puerto Rico
-2 - Jamaica, Guyana, El Salvador and St. Kitts and Nevis

Most points gained:

125 - Cuba
101 - Antigua and Barbuda
93 - Suriname

Most points lost:

-50 - Guyana
-39 - Jamaica
-37 - Grenada

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 USA                            855
2 2 Mexico 773
3 3 Honduras 485
4 4 Costa Rica 450
5 6 Canada 391
5 8 Panama 391
7 5 Jamaica 362
8 7 Trinidad and Tobago 353
9 11 Haiti 348
10 9 Grenada 301
11 18 Cuba 286
12 10 Guyana 284
13 16 Suriname 267
14 12 El Salvador 257
15 13 St. Kitts and Nevis 247
16 20 Antigua and Barbuda 239
17 19 Guatemala 194
18 17 Dominica 193
19 14 Puerto Rico 180
19 14 Barbados 180
21 21 Netherlands Antilles 121
22 22 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 116
23 23 Cayman Islands 90
24 24 Bermuda 80
25 25 Dominican Republic 66
26 26 Nicaragua 53
27 27 Belize 44
28 28 British Virgin Islands 38
29 29 St. Lucia 31
30 30 Turks and Caicos Islands 13
31 31 Bahamas 8
32 32 Aruba 7
33 33 US Virgin Islands 3
34 34 Anguilla 0
34 34 Montserrat 0


  1. Edgar, sorry for the silly question, but I'm assuming there is another component for your rankings other than FIFA's points, because what you have is not the same as FIFA.

    What is the other component?

    Great work as always.

  2. Dominican Republic obliterated British Virgin Islands 17-0 in a Caribbean Cup qualifier.

    That beating is going to look like a walk in the park compared to what's going to happen when this thing kicks off.

    I do think it will benefit the region as a whole, but Dominican Republic vs British Virgin Islands?

    How about Mexico vs British Virgin Islands? Right now the BVI won't even have to play a preliminary to get in. Does that mean even worse teams could be meeting the regions' best?

    I think we could see the Australia 31-0 over American Samoa record get broken here.

    Australia went psycho on those minnows because they felt insulted they had to play them. They did it to make a point, and that qualifying format got scrapped.

    Mexico/US and some other stronger CONCACAF nations might do the same.

  3. What is it that seperates Russia from Greece when the points are tied?

  4. @Anonymous Nov 21

    Of course, this is the intermediate May 2011 ranking, taking into account matches played between May 2007 and May 2011. I will add an explanation the next time I update the seeding.

    @Anonymous Nov 22

    The teams from CONCACAF's top tier are used to such games. They will most likely use them to test youngsters, cap-tie players etc. Minnows will get money from TV rights so everyone wins.

    @Anonymous Nov 24

    I don't know the exact rule FIFA use, but I sort them by using the unrounded total.

  5. Thanks for answering my questions. The last two anons are me. I decided to name myself, because I think I'll put more comments around here. I've followed your site for many months but ony just started commenting.

    The thing is, can the top CONCACAF nations afford to do such things? Look what happened in the preliminary round last time. T+T lost to Bermuda on their own park, and barely scraped past them. Costa Rica were two down to Grenada at the end of the first half of the first leg, and ended up just managing to tie the game. That's two teams that went to the World Cup in 2006 struggling against minnows. Whether they played A or B teams I don't know, if it was A, even better example. A team could lose the group because a B team dropped points on a Caribbean island. It's a World Cup qualifier, a big game, and it should be treated like that imo. Big teams can drop points to minnows even on home ground. They should ask Scotland about their glorious victory over Liechtenstein this cycle. Ask Portugal what happened when Liechtenstein came to town a while ago. Ask Switzerland what happened when Luxembourg came to town. I'd be fuming if my team (England) put out a B team against anyone in a World Cup qualifier unless already qualified. We've had several matches against Andorra in recent times, and the best England has to offer has been on the field, as it should be.

    Now, I don't know if being runner up will carry a penalty, but it ought to. I bet CONCACAF will just seed by World Rankings, but I think the best and fairest way would be to take all the group winners and put them in one pot, and all the group runners up in another. Then you split those two pots by rankings so you've got 4 pots, to prevent something ridiculously unfair like Mexico and US in the same group in the second group phase. However, if a big team slips and finishes runner up in it's group, they should suffer for it. It would also allow the possibility of Mexico and US meeting in these qualifiers if it was possible for them to be drawn together if one finishes above the other. It would also promote less dead rubber matches if it was important to win your group.

    Do you know what they will use in that regard?

  6. Responding to Lorric:

    In the new CONCACAF format, the top 2 from each 4 team group would advance, with 6 games being played. It isn't going to be a 2 legged tie, so dropping one result won't necessarily eliminate a team.

    And frankly, seeing teams like Barbados and Grenada give the other more established teams in CONCACAF a good run is exactly what the region needs, more depth.

    If one put the CONCACAF teams into pots, Grenada would be in pot 2 for certain (borderline pot 1). Losing to them wouldn't really affect progression out of group (at least at stage 1), as they are one of the other teams expected to advance. Bermuda is a bit of a different story.

    Still, in your example, it was a 2 legged tie. IMHO, there is MORE chance of an upset in such a situation, rather than a group where everyone plays 6 games.

  7. I know they were two legged ties, that's because until now those are the only times these teams come against each other with their full roster available to them.

    There are other possibilities too. Imagine this group: Any top seed/El Salvador/Guatemala/Minnow.

    Minnow is in for a rough ride. And I think with the way the Central American Cup has been layed out, there's a good chance of Guatemala staying in that third pot.

    I'm still thinking about the idea runners up could be punished though rather than being eliminated. Though like I said, I don't think CONCACAF will do it.

    However, what about the second group stage? Dropping points to a Caribbean island in the second stage could certainly prove fatal.

    I'm sure, just like those playoffs, there'll be some teams that compete surprisingly well.

    However, I think there's going to be a lot of this as well:

    Thanks again for your time.

  8. Oh wait, you're not Edgar, you're someone else! :)

    Oh well, we've both expanded on this either way, so thanks.

  9. @Lorric

    It seems there will be a draw after each phase. See this post for instance.