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Wednesday, November 10, 2010

EURO 2012: Final draw coefficients (10 November 2010)

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 final draw will take into account results from:

EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

Hosts Poland (23806) and Ukraine (28029) will be seeded for the final draw, along with 2008 winners, Spain, if they qualify.

Best movers:

9 - Hungary
8 - Czech Republic
6 - Montenegro

Worst movers:

-8 - Serbia
-7 - Finland
-6 - Romania

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 Spain              35290
2 2 Netherlands 34479
3 3 Germany 32946
4 4 England 27913
5 5 Italy 27777
6 7 Russia 27411
7 6 Croatia 26583
8 12 Portugal 26551
9 11 Greece 25914
10 14 France 25588
11 15 Denmark 24504
12 20 Czech Republic 24431
13 8 Sweden 24175
14 10 Slovakia 23894
15 16 Switzerland 23695
16 19 Norway 23593
17 9 Serbia 23515
18 13 Turkey 23161
19 24 Slovenia 22843
20 18 Ireland 22483
21 30 Hungary 22109
22 17 Israel 22101
23 22 Northern Ireland 21459
24 29 Austria 21366
25 28 Bulgaria 21339
26 21 Scotland 20926
27 33 Montenegro 20719
28 32 Belarus 20678
29 25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 20638
30 23 Finland 20592
31 27 Latvia 20404
32 26 Romania 20048
33 31 Lithuania 19406
34 35 Belgium 18018
35 37 Macedonia 17284
36 34 Wales 17107
37 38 Albania 16424
38 39 Estonia 16354
39 36 Cyprus 16261
40 44 Armenia 15606
41 40 Moldova 15342
42 42 Georgia 14622
43 45 Azerbaijan 13510
44 41 Iceland 13442
45 43 Kazakhstan 13198
46 46 Luxembourg 12185
47 47 Liechtenstein 11180
48 48 Faroe Islands 11115
49 49 Malta 10439
50 50 Andorra 8747
51 51 San Marino 8202


If the teams with the best coefficient qualify the final draw pot would look like this:

Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot 2: Germany, England, Italy, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Portugal, Greece, France
Pot 4: Denmark, Czech Republic, Sweden, Slovakia

Russia replace Croatia in the second pot.
Portugal and Greece return to the third pot, replacing Sweden and Slovakia.
France up to the third pot.

Serbia and Turkey replaced by Denmark and Czech Republic.

3 comments:

  1. How does this ranking differ from the one published on http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011?

    It is of interest to know the rankings that will be used for the seeding of the play-offs. According to your ranking it looks like Portugal, Greece, Sweden, and Czech Republic woule be seeded, assuming they finish second in their group and don't get the automatic qualifying sport. Slovenia would be next in line. According to the other source, the same four teams would be seeded, but Austria is next in line if one of the top four grab the automatic spot.

    Fredrik

    ReplyDelete
  2. @Fredrik,

    Edgar can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the main difference between Edgar's version and Raoul's version is that Edgar includes future scheduled matches (counted as losses for now).

    For example, for Spain's Euro 2012 Qualifiers portion:
    Raoul calculates the points for the 3 wins played so far, then divides by 3 matches.
    Edgar calculates the points for the 3 wins, plus 5 (potential) losses, then divides by 8 total matches.

    That is why Edgar's intermediate values are mostly lower than Raoul's. But after all qualifiers are completed, both versions will have the same values.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yes Alex, you're right.

    I use this method (suggested by amirbachar) because sometimes, at the beginning of a qualifying competition, some teams will suddenly find themselves at the top. In August 2008, with Raoul's system, Kazakhstan were at the top of the coefficient list. See more here.

    ReplyDelete