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Friday, March 20, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 March 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.




As there are no details regarding the preliminary rounds, here are the average points for the African teams in July 2015.

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points


1 1 Algeria 953.447
2 4 Côte d'Ivoire 947.857
3 2 Ghana 876.269
4 3 Tunisia 844.292
5 5 Senegal 769.389
6 6 Cameroon 699.519
7 7 Guinea 669
8 8 Congo 652
9 10 Nigeria 625.735
10 9 Mali 616.665
11 11 Equatorial Guinea 602.07
12 13 Congo DR 576.528
13 14 Cape Verde Islands 567.632
14 16 Egypt 562.884
15 12 South Africa 549.819
16 15 Gabon 549.812
17 17 Zambia 499.677
18 18 Burkina Faso 497.809
19 19 Uganda 463.556
20 20 Togo 435.947
21 22 Angola 380.028
22 23 Morocco 378.161
23 21 Mozambique 373.58
24 25 Rwanda 366.438
25 26 Sierra Leone 328
26 24 Malawi 324.806
27 27 Ethiopia 304
28 29 Sudan 290
29 28 Niger 284.157
30 31 Benin 282
31 30 Botswana 274.837
32 33 Tanzania 249.442
33 34 Libya 233
34 36 Zimbabwe 228.443
35 32 Lesotho 225.571
36 38 Namibia 217.263
37 35 Kenya 208
38 37 Burundi 194.547
39 42 Mauritania 136.118
40 39 Guinea-Bissau 131
41 44 Madagascar 126.913
42 40 Liberia 126
43 41 Central African Republic 111
44 43 Chad 100
45 45 Swaziland 99.932
46 46 Gambia 96.61
47 50 Mauritius 88.002
48 47 Seychelles 70.345
49 48 Sao Tome e Principe 48
50 49 Comoros 37
51 51 South Sudan 24
52 52 Eritrea 8
53 53 Somalia 6
54 54 Djibouti 4

8 comments:

  1. The friendly matches made changes in the ranking.Provided that there is no FIFA dates till next June,what will be the FIFA ranking for the CAF next June??

    ReplyDelete
  2. Elo predicts the following results for matches with CAF teams involved until July (scheduled on FIFA.com currently only COSAFA Cup matches):

    2015-05-17 Namibia - Seychelles; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-17 Zimbabwe - Mauritius; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-18 Lesotho - Madagascar; Friendly; X
    2015-05-18 Tanzania - Swaziland; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-19 Namibia - Mauritius; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-19 Seychelles - Zimbabwe; Friendly; 2
    2015-05-20 Lesotho - Swaziland; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-20 Madagascar - Tanzania; Friendly; 2
    2015-05-21 Namibia - Zimbabwe; Friendly; 2
    2015-05-21 Seychelles - Mauritius; Friendly; X
    2015-05-22 Lesotho - Tanzania; Friendly; 2
    2015-05-22 Madagascar - Swaziland; Friendly; X
    2015-05-24 Ghana - Tanzania; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-24 Mozambique - Malawi; Friendly; Mozambique PSO win
    2015-05-25 South Africa - Botswana; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-25 Zambia - Zimbabwe; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-27 Tanzania - Botswana; Friendly; Tanzania PSO win
    2015-05-27 Malawi - Zimbabwe; Friendly; Zimbabwe PSO win
    2015-05-28 South Africa - Ghana; Friendly; Ghana PSO win
    2015-05-28 Mozambique - Zambia; Friendly; 2
    2015-05-29 Tanzania - Zimbabwe; Friendly; Zimbabwe PSO win
    2015-05-30 Ghana - Zambia; Friendly; 1
    2015-05-30 South Africa - Mozambique; Friendly; 1


    CAF has yet to publish the detailed format of the African qualifying section for the World Cup 2018. The predicted July 2015 ranking for CAF-teams:

    Algeria (19 - 955)
    Cote d'Ivoire (20 - 939)
    Ghana (24 - 868)
    Tunisia (26 - 838)
    Senegal (30 - 798)
    Cameroon (39 - 708)
    Guinea (43 - 669)
    Congo (45 - 652)
    Cape Verde Islands (51 - 616; currently winning against Portugal)
    Equatorial Guinea (54 - 604)
    Mali (55 - 601)
    Nigeria (56 - 593)
    Egypt (58 - 581)
    Gabon (59 - 568)
    Congo DR (61 - 560)
    South Africa (62 - 549)
    Burkina Faso (66 - 515)
    Zambia (67 - 511)
    Uganda (70 - 488)
    Togo (78 - 428)
    Angola (88 - 372)
    Mozambique (90 - 368)
    Morocco (92 - 354)
    Rwanda (93 - 347)
    Sierra Leone (97 - 328)
    Malawi (99 - 325)
    Ethiopia (104 - 304)
    Sudan (107 - 290)
    Benin (108 - 282)
    Niger (108 - 282)
    Botswana (113 - 264)
    Zimbabwe (115 - 259)
    Tanzania (116 - 253)
    Kenya (120 - 234)
    Libya (121 - 233)
    Lesotho (123 - 224)
    Namibia (131 - 195)
    Burundi (134 - 187)
    Guinea-Bissau (150 - 131)
    Liberia (156 - 126)
    Mauritania (158 - 122)
    Central African Republic (164 - 111)
    Gambia (164 - 111)
    Madagascar (167 - 105)
    Chad (169 - 100)
    Mauritius (177 - 77)
    Swaziland (179 - 74)
    Seychelles (185 - 55)
    Sao Tome e Principe (188 - 48)
    Comoros (192 - 37)
    South Sudan (195 - 24)
    Eritrea (204 - 8)
    Somalia (205 - 6)
    Djibouti (207 - 4)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does this include Cape Verde's win over Portugal? The match hadn't finished yet when you posted this.

      Delete
  3. Does this predictions includes friendly games played this weekend?
    +
    Egypt now has 612 points in April ranking
    why it will has 582 points in June ?
    Cameroon now 628 POINTS, in June will be 708 without plying any games till June, why?
    as well as Equa.Guinea, Nigeria,Mali,Congo.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hossam, FIFA points are calculated by adding new results each month, but devaluating older results if they pass the 12 months, 24 months, 36 months and 48 months-period. So without playing, or even while winning, teams can lose points.

      as far as i can calculate, Ed calculated all results up to today.

      Delete
  4. Note that there aer 2 AFCON 2017 qualifiers games in June.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Cape Verde's win against Portugal was already included. At the time of generating this overview I didn't knew the result of Mauritania-Niger, so that match is included as the elo-predicted draw. The 2:0 win for Mauritania gives them 152 points in July and Niger 273 points.
    The rest of yesterday's (and earlier) matches with CAF teams involved are included.

    Hossam, you are right. There will be AFCON17 qualifiers in June, but the draw is April 8th, so these matches are not yet scheduled on FIFA.com.

    ReplyDelete