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Friday, March 13, 2015

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 April. The April edition will also be used to seed the Asian group stage draw of the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

A couple of things will happen regardless of these probable results.
  • Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Cook Islands, Djibouti will drop to new lows
  • We will have a new bottom team, replacing Bhutan. It will be Anguilla (if they fail to register at least a single point in their World Cup qualifiers vs. Nicaragua) or Cook Islands and Djibouti - tied on 4 points.
  • Bhutan will register their best move ever - at least 14 spots


If results do go their way, Belgium could improve their best ever ranking.

Probable April 2015 rank - Team - Probable April 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Germany 1702 0 -68
2 Argentina 1490 0 -87
3 Belgium 1457 1 -14
4 Colombia 1412 -1 -87
5 Netherlands 1340 0 -75
6 Brazil 1310 0 -38
7 Portugal 1256 0 65
8 Uruguay 1176 1 12
9 France 1139 -1 -41
10 Switzerland 1135 2 9
11 Italy 1134 -1 -12
12 Spain 1132 -1 2
13 Romania 1086 1 5
14 Costa Rica 1037 -1 -58
15 Chile 1033 0 -24
16 England 1030 1 -1
17 Czech Republic 1001 -1 -44
18 Croatia 977 1 14
19 Austria 928 4 12
20 Côte d'Ivoire 924 0 -20
21 Algeria 921 -3 -65
22 Mexico 918 -1 -17
23 Greece 900 4 28
24 Slovakia 884 -2 -48
25 Ghana 868 -1 -19
26 Russia 838 7 50
27 USA 825 5 -3
28 Israel 822 -2 -58
29 Scotland 796 10 69
30 Ukraine 795 1 -43
31 Tunisia 786 -6 -95
32 Denmark 777 -4 -86
33 Ecuador 773 -4 -79
34 Bosnia-Herzegovina 768 -4 -73
35 Iceland 748 0 -28
36 Senegal 715 0 -57
37 Poland 706 -3 -72
38 Sweden 704 7 41
39 Wales 700 -2 -63
40 Cape Verde Islands 684 -2 -77
41 Guinea 678 3 9
42 Nigeria 676 -1 -25
43 Hungary 665 3 6
44 Serbia 664 -4 -45
45 Slovenia 657 3 8
46 Iran 653 -4 -39
47 Equatorial Guinea 631 3 1
48 Republic of Ireland 628 18 91
49 Cameroon 627 0 -19
50 Congo 624 2 -1
51 Japan 614 2 -3
52 Northern Ireland 596 -9 -83
53 Congo DR 595 -6 -56
54 Mali 594 -3 -32
55 Egypt 590 3 8
56 Korea Republic 587 0 -7
57 Albania 575 4 18
58 South Africa 567 -3 -41
59 Turkey 560 -3 -34
60 Zambia 556 0 -4
61 Gabon 551 -7 -59
62 Panama 544 -1 -13
63 Peru 539 -4 -26
64 Trinidad and Tobago 532 -1 -21
65 Australia 530 0 -19
66 United Arab Emirates 501 3 -22
67 Burkina Faso 496 1 -33
68 Norway 491 2 -31
69 Finland 490 9 40
70 Uganda 477 4 -1
71 Rwanda 474 -7 -76
71 Venezuela 474 1 -9
73 Uzbekistan 469 -1 -14
74 Montenegro 457 -7 -74
75 Honduras 451 6 18
76 Armenia 449 3 12
77 Togo 447 -2 -19
78 Jamaica 445 -2 -18
79 China PR 440 4 17
80 Haiti 427 -3 -27
81 Bulgaria 426 -10 -75
82 Paraguay 398 -2 -36
83 Morocco 391 6 13
84 El Salvador 388 5 10
85 Mozambique 386 1 1
86 Sierra Leone 382 1 3
87 Angola 381 -3 -22
88 Guatemala 380 -6 -45
89 Bolivia 360 3 -12
90 Benin 357 2 -15
91 Belarus 351 7 5
92 Iraq 350 5 -3
93 Saudi Arabia 349 6 10
94 Estonia 346 -7 -33
95 Cyprus 342 -10 -56
96 Malawi 341 -5 -35
96 Oman 341 0 -15
98 Lithuania 333 -4 -31
99 FYR Macedonia 326 9 18
99 Jordan 326 2 0
101 Ethiopia 321 1 -4
102 Botswana 319 4 3
103 Faroe Islands 318 2 1
103 Latvia 318 -8 -43
105 Antigua and Barbuda 311 -3 -14
106 Qatar 304 3 4
107 Tanzania 302 -7 -29
108 Bahrain 296 -4 -23
109 Sudan 288 1 0
110 Libya 281 2 0
110 St. Kitts and Nevis 281 11 37
112 Namibia 279 1 2
113 Cuba 276 -3 -12
114 Dominican Republic 266 -7 -44
115 Niger 265 -1 -6
116 Azerbaijan 264 23 66
117 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 262 2 2
118 Barbados 255 13 37
118 Canada 255 -2 -11
118 Kenya 255 0 -8
121 Burundi 254 5 29
122 Moldova 245 0 2
123 Zimbabwe 237 1 0
124 Lesotho 236 -4 -21
125 Vietnam 229 5 9
126 Kuwait 224 -1 -7
126 Mauritania 224 -11 -44
128 Liechtenstein 219 -5 -19
129 Bermuda 217 40 128
130 Guinea-Bissau 212 4 1
130 Liberia 212 -13 -52
132 Aruba 204 -4 -17
133 India 203 40 129
134 St. Lucia 202 -2 -14
135 Luxembourg 200 1 -9
136 Maldives 199 -3 -15
136 Philippines 199 -8 -22
138 Georgia 197 -12 -28
139 Afghanistan 195 -2 -8
140 Kazakhstan 193 -2 -6
141 Palestine 192 -1 -2
142 Curaçao 189 17 64
143 Thailand 183 -1 -6
144 Madagascar 182 3 19
145 Central African Republic 178 -2 0
146 Syria 174 6 33
147 Belize 173 17 73
148 Lebanon 163 -2 -1
148 New Zealand 163 -14 -48
150 Malta 158 -5 -10
150 Tajikistan 158 -9 -34
152 Kyrgyzstan 157 -2 11
153 Chad 155 -5 0
154 Nicaragua 142 31 91
155 Guyana 139 11 45
156 Gambia 138 12 48
156 Singapore 138 -3 1
158 Korea DPR 137 -9 -12
159 Yemen 134 16 62
160 Myanmar 133 -7 -4
161 Indonesia 131 -5 2
161 Turkmenistan 131 -17 -44
163 Malaysia 123 -10 -14
164 Dominica 120 17 65
164 Grenada 120 -6 -6
166 Puerto Rico 119 -6 0
167 Bangladesh 116 -5 4
167 Hong Kong 116 -10 -11
169 Suriname 115 -8 0
170 Sri Lanka 110 4 37
171 Swaziland 107 -8 1
172 New Caledonia 101 -21 -42
173 Timor-Leste 98 12 47
174 Guam 91 -7 -2
175 Laos 88 -5 0
176 Brunei Darussalam 86 22 71
176 Cambodia 86 5 31
176 Montserrat 86 -4 0
179 Pakistan 84 -9 -4
180 Mongolia 83 15 58
181 Macau 66 6 21
181 Turks and Caicos Islands 66 -5 0
183 Comoros 65 -6 1
183 Tahiti 65 -19 -35
185 Bhutan 64 24 64
186 Seychelles 60 -8 0
187 Chinese Taipei 59 1 16
188 Sao Tome e Principe 58 -9 0
189 Nepal 50 -9 -7
190 Solomon Islands 46 -6 -7
191 South Sudan 43 -3 0
192 San Marino 40 -11 -15
193 Mauritius 37 -3 1
194 Vanuatu 34 -3 0
195 Fiji 30 -3 0
195 Samoa 30 -3 0
197 Cayman Islands 27 8 22
198 Bahamas 26 -4 0
199 Tonga 17 -3 0
200 US Virgin Islands 16 -3 0
201 Papua New Guinea 13 -2 0
202 American Samoa 12 -2 0
203 Andorra 8 -2 0
203 British Virgin Islands 8 -2 0
203 Eritrea 8 -2 0
206 Somalia 6 -2 0
207 Cook Islands 4 -1 0
207 Djibouti 4 -1 0
209 Anguilla 2 -1 0

20 comments:

  1. Hello !! I don't have a big trust in FIFA ranking for a reason :

    We know in Africa and Concacaf, the final tournament is played at every 2 years. So, FIFA make the ranking for last 4 years, so, in this ranking is counting 2 final tournaments for Africa and Concacaf. I think is a joke that Cape Verde (40) and Equatorial Guinea (47) are so high.
    And champions of Asia, Australia is only 65th?

    UEFA EURO, Asian Cup, Copa American and OFC Nations Cup are at 4 years ...so, only 1 final tournament will be on the ranking.

    For example, If champions of CAF, Concacaf and AFC have same value :
    champion = 200 points
    vice-campion = 100 points
    etc .
    In ranking, these 200 points for ASIA will be only 1 time, while in CAF and Gold Cup, these 200 points are transformed in 400 (200 x 2 tournaments).

    So, this FIFA ranking don't give a correct value of the teams, and teams from CAF and CCF are too high in the ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I want to put everything in a bit more perspective.

    There's no denying: CAF and CONCACAF play two continental finals in a four year cycle, opposite to AFC, CONMEBOL and UEFA. That is not the whole story however. Besides the matches in the continental finals there are the continental and WC qualifiers that could carry a lot of match points for the FIFA ranking. So you need to take them into account also to make some kind of proper comparison.
    Furthermore there are plenty of exceptions:
    - Mexico, USA and Canada don't have to play qualification matches for the Gold Cup;
    - Japan, Korea Republic and Australia don't have to play qualification matches for the Asian Cup;
    - guest appearances of Mexico and Costa Rica at the Copa America 2011;
    - teams like Jordan, Uzbekistan, Portugal and Croatia play several extra play-off matches for continental and/or WC qualification;
    - hosts of a tournament don't have to play qualification matches;
    - strong teams that go far in final tournaments play as a result more high-valued matches. That seperates the men from the boys.

    I have taken a closer look at the last 4-year cycle (July 2010 - July 2014). The top-20 teams with highest number of non-friendly matches played:
    team - conf - # CC's - CC - CCq - WCq - total
    PAN - CCF - 2 - 9 - 8 - 20 - 37
    CRC - CCF - 3 - 11 - 9 - 16 - 36
    HON - CCF - 2 - 10 - 8 - 16 - 34
    MEX - CCF - 3 - 13 - 0 - 18 - 31
    UZB - AFC - 1 - 6 - 6 - 18 - 30
    JOR - AFC - 1 - 4 - 6 - 20 - 30
    SLV - CCF - 2 - 8 - 9 - 12 - 29
    GHA - CAF - 2 - 12 - 8 - 8 - 28
    USA - CCF - 2 - 11 - 0 - 16 - 27
    POR - UEF - 1 - 5 - 10 - 12 - 27
    CRO - UEF - 1 - 3 - 12 - 12 - 27
    IRN - AFC - 1 - 4 - 6 - 16 - 26
    QAT - AFC - 1 - 4 - 6 - 16 - 26
    IRQ - AFC - 1 - 4 - 6 - 16 - 26
    CIV - CAF - 2 - 10 - 8 - 8 - 26
    MLI - CAF - 2 - 12 - 8 - 6 - 26
    ITA - UEF - 1 - 6 - 10 - 10 - 26
    GRE - UEF - 1 - 4 - 10 - 12 - 26
    TUN - CAF - 2 - 7 - 10 - 8 - 25
    CUB - CCF - 2 - 7 - 12 - 6 - 25
    GUY - CCF - 0 - 0 - 13 - 12 - 25
    GER - UEF - 1 - 5 - 10 - 10 - 25
    SWE - UEF - 1 - 3 - 10 - 12 - 25

    I tried to estimate a typical amount of non-friendly matches for a team which is 'top' in it's confederation, leaving all the mentioned exceptions aside and using the latest qualification formats:
    conf - CC - CCq - WCq - total
    CCF - 6 - 10 - 16 - 32
    AFC - 3 - 6 - 16 - 25
    CAF - 6 - 10 - 8 - 24
    UEF - 3 - 10 - 10 - 23
    COM - 3 - 0 - 18 - 21
    Only CONCACAF seems to stand out now. The other confederations (CAF included) play a comparable number of non-friendly matches in a 4-year cycle.

    Confirmed in this last table which presents the average number of non-friendly matches of the top-8 teams from each confederation counting for the July 2014 ranking:
    conf - CC - CCq - WCq - total
    CCF - 8.1 - 6.8 - 14.3 - 29.1
    UEF - 3.6 - 9.5 - 10.0 - 23.1
    AFC - 4.8 - 3.8 - 14.0 - 22.5
    CAF - 6.0 - 9.0 - 7.5 - 22.5
    COM - 4.6 - 0.0 - 14.3 - 18.9
    This shows you the overall great strength of the CONMEBOL teams: even with this comparatively low count of non-friendly matches they have 5 teams in the top-15 of the ranking. Evidently the top teams from CAF are also that high in the ranking by merit, not by their number of non-friendly matches. The CONCACAF top teams, Mexico and USA aside, are arguably too highly ranked (based on their sheer number of non-friendly matches), although Costa Rica showed some real class last year in Brazil.

    And what will be the influence of next year's extra Copa America 'Centenario' and the UEFA Nations League matches starting in September 2018 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A nice analysis, but the Confederations Cup in 2013 seems to be missing there. Mexico and Italy would have different values if it were accounted for. The OFC championship isn't included either, but I guess that's on purpose.

      Delete
    2. I purposely left the Confed Cup and (for that matter also the World Cup) out of my analysis because I consider these sort of matches of the same category as the knock-out stages of final tournaments: it is an extra for the really big teams. It would only cloud the comparison of the 'guaranteed' number of non-friendly matches a team in each confederation could play in a four year cycle.
      The OFC (and it's Nations Cup) is a bit of an odd duck in this overview as these teams hardly play matches at all, non-friendly or friendly. There's only one Nations Cup every four years and the bigger part of that tournament is even doubled as WC qualifiers. But just to be complete then:
      Of the OFC-teams New Zealand played most non-friendly matches in this cycle: 2 CC and 11 WCq for a total of 13 matches. A typical distribution of non-friendly matches for OFC would be 2 CC, 0 CCq and 9 WCq for a total of 11 matches. The average for the top 8 teams of OFC is 1.0 CC, 0.0 CCq and 6.6 WCq for a total of 7.6 matches.

      Delete
    3. Very nice analysis Ed. As spammers say, you bring value and insight :)

      Delete
  3. Egypt will play friendly against Equatorial Guinea
    If wins
    How many points will be reached in April ranking?

    African Nations cup 2017 draw will be hold in 8th of April,,, what is rules of seeding in this draw??

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hossam, a win for Egypt would take them from 590 to 612 points in April.
    For some insight in the seeding for the AFCON17Q see: http://www.football-rankings.info/2015/02/afc-member-association-ranking-update.html?showComment=1425373348078#c7642897308200858147 and http://www.football-rankings.info/2015/02/afc-member-association-ranking-update.html?showComment=1425383722870#c2649082726353822463

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bhutan and Timor-Leste have won(you put their lose),so how many points they will have in april ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Per FIFA's Ranking Prognosis tool (http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html), Bhutan will now have 128 points, and Timor-Leste will now have 151 points.

      Delete
    2. The actual link to the tool is this one: http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-tools/prognosis.html

      Delete
  6. Thanks.So,Timor-Leste will be in pot 4 for the april draw(with little chance to be in pot 3!),while bhutan keeps little hope to climb pot 4,let's see the friendlies of end march.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PROBABLE SEEDING FOR ROUND 2 AFC WORLD CUP QUALIFIER

      POT 1
      iran 653
      japan 589
      south korea 587
      australia 516
      uae 501
      uzbekistan 469
      china 412
      saudi arabia 349

      POT 2
      oman 341
      iraq 333
      jordan 326
      bahrain 299
      qatar 288
      vietnam 229
      kuwait 224
      afganistan 195

      POT 3
      philippines 193
      tajikistan 193
      palestine 192
      maldives 191
      thailand 183
      syria 171
      lebanon 163
      india 161

      POT 4
      kyrgystan 158
      timor leste 151
      singapore 138
      korea dpr 137
      myammar 133
      turkmenistan 131
      indonesia 131
      bhutan 128

      POT 5
      malaysia 123
      hong kong 116
      bangladesh 116
      yemen 111
      guam 91
      laos 88
      chinese taipei 86
      cambodia 86

      Delete
  7. To me, it would have made more sense if the first round winners were automatically allocated to pot 5.

    ReplyDelete
  8. PROBABLE SEEDING FOR ROUND 2 AFC WORLD CUP QUALIFIER

    POT 1
    iran 653
    japan 589
    south korea 587
    australia 516
    uae 501
    uzbekistan 469
    china 412
    saudi arabia 349

    POT 2
    oman 341
    iraq 333
    jordan 326
    bahrain 299
    qatar 288
    vietnam 229
    kuwait 224
    afganistan 195

    POT 3
    philippines 193
    tajikistan 193
    palestine 192
    maldives 191
    thailand 183
    syria 171
    lebanon 163
    india 161

    POT 4
    kyrgystan 158
    timor leste 151
    singapore 138
    korea dpr 137
    myammar 133
    turkmenistan 131
    indonesia 131
    bhutan 128

    POT 5
    malaysia 123
    hong kong 116
    bangladesh 116
    yemen 111
    guam 91
    laos 88
    chinese taipei 86
    cambodia 86

    ReplyDelete
  9. And ranking in Asia as well as in fifa

    ReplyDelete
  10. Belgium's ranking will be third if they win tonight. According to my calculations, they'll become second in june, no matter what happens.

    Chief sport editor of one of Belgium's largest sport newspapers wrote an article about the usefullness of FIFA ranking: http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20150330_01606917

    ReplyDelete
  11. Rank 146 , 145 and 144 are not mentioned ?

    ReplyDelete