2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 March 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


Pot 1: Germany, Netherlands, Romania, Belgium, England, Portugal, Czech Republic, Italy, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Slovakia, Switzerland, France, Austria, Israel, Ukraine, Wales, Denmark
Pot 3: Poland, Iceland, Serbia, Scotland, Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Sweden, Republic of Ireland
Pot 4: Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Albania, Turkey, Norway, Finland, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Armenia
Pot 5: Estonia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Belarus, Latvia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, Andorra, San Marino

Looking to improve your FIFA ranking before the draw? Use the e-mail address from my profile to contact me. 

Wales replace Iceland in pot 2.
Sweden and Republic of Ireland replace Slovenia and Northern Ireland in pot 3.

Pot 6

99.99% - San Marino
98.98% - Andorra
90.01% - Luxembourg
89.25% - Malta
82.69% - Liechtenstein
79.07% - Georgia
62.37% - Kazakhstan
36.99% - Faroe Islands
30.08% - Moldova
26.95% - Azerbaijan
2.07% - Belarus
0.97% - Latvia
0.56% - FYR Macedonia
0.02% - Lithuania

Pot 5

93.19% - Cyprus
89.65% - Latvia
86.02% - Belarus
77.39% - FYR Macedonia
77.04% - Lithuania
73.70% - Estonia
72.54% - Azerbaijan
69.04% - Moldova
56.02% - Faroe Islands
48.49% - Armenia
37.39% - Kazakhstan
25.13% - Bulgaria
18.80% - Georgia
17.64% - Finland
17.31% - Liechtenstein
14.29% - Montenegro
10.75% - Malta
9.91% - Luxembourg
2.22% - Norway
1.06% - Albania
1.02% - Andorra
0.92% - Turkey
0.46% - Republic of Ireland
0.01% - San Marino
0.01% - Northern Ireland

Pot 4

94.50% - Turkey
93.22% - Norway
85.23% - Albania
74.88% - Montenegro
64.61% - Finland
62.68% - Bulgaria
55.89% - Northern Ireland
47.94% - Slovenia
46.91% - Armenia
44.09% - Republic of Ireland
30.26% - Hungary
26.30% - Estonia
23.80% - Sweden
22.65% - Lithuania
21.99% - FYR Macedonia
19.20% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
17.76% - Greece
12.89% - Serbia
11.91% - Belarus
9.32% - Latvia
6.89% - Faroe Islands
6.80% - Cyprus
6.46% - Israel
3.96% - Wales
3.48% - Scotland
2.12% - Georgia
1.18% - Iceland
0.88% - Moldova
0.83% - Denmark
0.54% - Poland
0.51% - Azerbaijan
0.24% - Kazakhstan
0.08% - Luxembourg

Pot 3

75.87% - Sweden
73.16% - Scotland
68.72% - Iceland
63.48% - Poland
63.42% - Greece
63.27% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
58.34% - Denmark
54.81% - Serbia
52.84% - Wales
52.64% - Hungary
48.13% - Slovenia
45.55% - Republic of Ireland
37.75% - Northern Ireland
30.79% - Ukraine
24.37% - Israel
17.75% - Finland
15.21% - Austria
13.71% - Albania
12.19% - Bulgaria
10.43% - Montenegro
4.60% - Armenia
4.58% - Turkey
4.56% - Norway
1.39% - Switzerland
1.03% - Croatia
0.37% - Slovakia
0.35% - France
0.29% - Lithuania
0.16% - Spain
0.10% - Faroe Islands
0.06% - Latvia
0.06% - FYR Macedonia
0.01% - Georgia
0.01% - Cyprus

Pot 2

91.00% - France
88.73% - Slovakia
86.69% - Switzerland
78.20% - Austria
67.93% - Ukraine
53.72% - Croatia
40.88% - Israel
40.83% - Denmark
39.06% - Spain
36.56% - Wales
35.79% - Poland
32.52% - Italy
30.10% - Iceland
28.85% - Serbia
26.83% - Czech Republic
23.36% - Scotland
18.82% - Greece
17.53% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
17.10% - Hungary
12.03% - Portugal
9.90% - Republic of Ireland
8.65% - England
6.35% - Northern Ireland
3.93% - Slovenia
3.44% - Belgium
0.46% - Romania
0.40% - Montenegro
0.33% - Sweden
0.01% - Netherlands

Pot 1

100.00% - Germany
99.99% - Netherlands
99.54% - Romania
96.56% - Belgium
91.35% - England
87.97% - Portugal
73.17% - Czech Republic
67.48% - Italy
60.78% - Spain
45.25% - Croatia
28.29% - Israel
11.92% - Switzerland
10.90% - Slovakia
8.65% - France
6.64% - Wales
6.59% - Austria
3.45% - Serbia
1.28% - Ukraine
0.19% - Poland

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.