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Friday, March 20, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 March 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


Pot 1: Germany, Netherlands, Romania, Belgium, England, Portugal, Czech Republic, Italy, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Slovakia, Switzerland, France, Austria, Israel, Ukraine, Wales, Denmark
Pot 3: Poland, Iceland, Serbia, Scotland, Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Sweden, Republic of Ireland
Pot 4: Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Albania, Turkey, Norway, Finland, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Armenia
Pot 5: Estonia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Belarus, Latvia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, Andorra, San Marino

Looking to improve your FIFA ranking before the draw? Use the e-mail address from my profile to contact me. 

Wales replace Iceland in pot 2.
Sweden and Republic of Ireland replace Slovenia and Northern Ireland in pot 3.

Pot 6

99.99% - San Marino
98.98% - Andorra
90.01% - Luxembourg
89.25% - Malta
82.69% - Liechtenstein
79.07% - Georgia
62.37% - Kazakhstan
36.99% - Faroe Islands
30.08% - Moldova
26.95% - Azerbaijan
2.07% - Belarus
0.97% - Latvia
0.56% - FYR Macedonia
0.02% - Lithuania

Pot 5

93.19% - Cyprus
89.65% - Latvia
86.02% - Belarus
77.39% - FYR Macedonia
77.04% - Lithuania
73.70% - Estonia
72.54% - Azerbaijan
69.04% - Moldova
56.02% - Faroe Islands
48.49% - Armenia
37.39% - Kazakhstan
25.13% - Bulgaria
18.80% - Georgia
17.64% - Finland
17.31% - Liechtenstein
14.29% - Montenegro
10.75% - Malta
9.91% - Luxembourg
2.22% - Norway
1.06% - Albania
1.02% - Andorra
0.92% - Turkey
0.46% - Republic of Ireland
0.01% - San Marino
0.01% - Northern Ireland

Pot 4

94.50% - Turkey
93.22% - Norway
85.23% - Albania
74.88% - Montenegro
64.61% - Finland
62.68% - Bulgaria
55.89% - Northern Ireland
47.94% - Slovenia
46.91% - Armenia
44.09% - Republic of Ireland
30.26% - Hungary
26.30% - Estonia
23.80% - Sweden
22.65% - Lithuania
21.99% - FYR Macedonia
19.20% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
17.76% - Greece
12.89% - Serbia
11.91% - Belarus
9.32% - Latvia
6.89% - Faroe Islands
6.80% - Cyprus
6.46% - Israel
3.96% - Wales
3.48% - Scotland
2.12% - Georgia
1.18% - Iceland
0.88% - Moldova
0.83% - Denmark
0.54% - Poland
0.51% - Azerbaijan
0.24% - Kazakhstan
0.08% - Luxembourg

Pot 3

75.87% - Sweden
73.16% - Scotland
68.72% - Iceland
63.48% - Poland
63.42% - Greece
63.27% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
58.34% - Denmark
54.81% - Serbia
52.84% - Wales
52.64% - Hungary
48.13% - Slovenia
45.55% - Republic of Ireland
37.75% - Northern Ireland
30.79% - Ukraine
24.37% - Israel
17.75% - Finland
15.21% - Austria
13.71% - Albania
12.19% - Bulgaria
10.43% - Montenegro
4.60% - Armenia
4.58% - Turkey
4.56% - Norway
1.39% - Switzerland
1.03% - Croatia
0.37% - Slovakia
0.35% - France
0.29% - Lithuania
0.16% - Spain
0.10% - Faroe Islands
0.06% - Latvia
0.06% - FYR Macedonia
0.01% - Georgia
0.01% - Cyprus

Pot 2

91.00% - France
88.73% - Slovakia
86.69% - Switzerland
78.20% - Austria
67.93% - Ukraine
53.72% - Croatia
40.88% - Israel
40.83% - Denmark
39.06% - Spain
36.56% - Wales
35.79% - Poland
32.52% - Italy
30.10% - Iceland
28.85% - Serbia
26.83% - Czech Republic
23.36% - Scotland
18.82% - Greece
17.53% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
17.10% - Hungary
12.03% - Portugal
9.90% - Republic of Ireland
8.65% - England
6.35% - Northern Ireland
3.93% - Slovenia
3.44% - Belgium
0.46% - Romania
0.40% - Montenegro
0.33% - Sweden
0.01% - Netherlands

Pot 1

100.00% - Germany
99.99% - Netherlands
99.54% - Romania
96.56% - Belgium
91.35% - England
87.97% - Portugal
73.17% - Czech Republic
67.48% - Italy
60.78% - Spain
45.25% - Croatia
28.29% - Israel
11.92% - Switzerland
10.90% - Slovakia
8.65% - France
6.64% - Wales
6.59% - Austria
3.45% - Serbia
1.28% - Ukraine
0.19% - Poland

61 comments:

  1. Finally we have a date. FIFA announced today that the slots for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups will be decided on May 30.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm afraid of fact that they have joined the decision over the slots allocation for 2018 and 2022.

    I hope that they will remember that in 2022 the host nation will be Asian one, not European and the allocation for two WC editions will be different, for example:

    2018: UEFA 12.5 + Russia, CAF 5.5, CONMEBOL 4.5, AFC 4.5, CONCACAF 3.5, OFC 0.5

    2022: UEFA 13, CAF 5.5, CONMEBOL 4.5, AFC 4 + Qatar, CONCACAF 3.5, OFC 0.5

    ReplyDelete
  3. It seems that UEFA already know that they'll have 13 spots + Russia in the 2018 WC. The qualifying format will be the same as for the 2014 WC and Gibraltar will not participate.

    This was published today on the UEFA website:

    "The competition format of the European Qualifiers for the 2018 FIFA World Cup was confirmed. The 52 participating UEFA member associations (Russia qualify as hosts, and Gibraltar is not a FIFA member) will be divided into nine groups: seven groups of six teams and two groups of five. The nine group winners qualify directly, and the eight best runners-up go into the play-offs to determine the remaining four qualified sides. Matches in the European Qualifiers will be played between September 2016 and November 2017."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hate that format, quite frankly. I wish they'd combine the play-offs with another confederation, perhaps Asia, so that ALL the runners-up get a shot at it. I think they did this in 2002 when Ireland played Iran.
      Yes this might mean Europe getting an extra spot, but if the 5th-placed Asian team is strong enough, then that place will have been earned.

      Delete
  4. What are Israel's chances of getting to pot 1 with:
    1. A win against Wales + loss against Belgium
    2. A win against Wales + draw against Belgium
    3. A win against Wales + win against Belgium

    Thanks,
    Amir

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. 15.93%
      2. 35.39%
      3. 96.33%

      You're welcome,
      Edgar.

      Delete
    2. 4. A loss against Wales and a loss against Belgium?

      :D

      Delete
  5. Amir, with wins against both Wales and Belgium Israel will definitely be in the mix for pot 1. All other elo-predictions remaining as they are (and that includes a loss for Israel in June away against Bosnia-Herzegovina !), Israel will be 15th with 1064 points and that is first in pot 2, in front of Croatia (1023 pts) and right behind Czech Republic (1071 pts).

    ReplyDelete
  6. Wales has won! So where do they finish in the draw simulation?
    Thanks in advance for the answer!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Come on Wales!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Blunders by Czech Republic and Italy today open the door for Croatia. Could it be that now even a draw vs Italy in June would be enough for pot 1?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Our main problem is that our incompetent association is not making good friendlies for us. We might be short for that points we could've earned in some good friendly wins/draws. Sure they do not give the same amount of points as Qualifiers but still they can boost the points nicely...

      Delete
    2. hajduk_split, we should already pass Czech based on their draw in qualifying this week (and possibly friendly loss to Slovakia today, they are currently losing), so should control our own destiny over them. Italy also drew and I think you are correct a draw vs Italy may be enough to pass them as well, however we may need some help from Portugal in their Friendly with Italy also in June. A win however should move us in front of Italy and already being ahead of Czech Republic should mean we would be in Pot 1 thanks to the Friendly with non-FIFA recognized Gibraltar (thanks for teaching me about that!)

      Delete
    3. I just hope Slovakia will not somehow emerge as a potential Pot 1 candidate if Croatia - Italy ends with a draw. They have 8 wins in a row and an easy home match in June vs Macedonia. I'm waiting for Ed to clarify this potential Slovakian threat. :)

      Delete
    4. even with the 2 wins this month Slovakia will lose a dozen FIFA points but to your point remain close enough that they could pip us if we draw in June

      Delete
    5. Could be enough. With a draw, Croatia are 81.33% in Pot 1.

      Delete
  9. Replies
    1. I dunno - when you say Wales I always think of very green grass. So I'd say Wales are looking green and assured of at least pot 2.

      Delete
  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. Anyone has an excel where i can predict the matches for European seeds? like you guys do with elo ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would like this as well

      Delete
  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. In this 'Week of football' Croatia, Iceland and England booked convincing victories. Most qualifying match results followed the ranking logic, but of course there were a few surprises. Biggest upset: Israel losing emphatically at home to Wales. Italy and Czech Republic only managed draws against weaker opposition. And then the Netherlands. What a poor performance, once again, of the number three of the last World Cup. OK, Robben and Van Persie were missing but still: hardly any class and technical quality to be found in what is left on the pitch. It will be difficult to qualify, luckily there is a third place bringing a play-off spot to fight for. Who said the expansion of EURO 2016 to 24 teams was a bad thing ? No one in Holland, I guess :)

    Only one more batch of matches in June (scheduled on FIFA.com) for the UEFA teams with the chance to contribute to their July ranking. Elo predicts the following results:

    2015-05-31 Northern Ireland - Qatar; Friendly; X
    2015-06-05 Netherlands - USA; Friendly; 1
    2015-06-07 France - Belgium; Friendly; 1
    2015-06-07 Republic of Ireland - England; Friendly; 2
    2015-06-08 Denmark - Montenegro; Friendly; 1
    2015-06-08 Norway - Sweden; Friendly; X
    2015-06-09 Luxembourg - Moldova; Friendly; X
    2015-06-10 Germany - USA; Friendly; 1
    2015-06-10 Switzerland - Liechtenstein; Friendly; 1
    2015-06-12 Iceland - Czech Republic; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-06-12 Kazakhstan - Turkey; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-12 Latvia - Netherlands; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-12 Andorra - Cyprus; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-12 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Israel; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-12 Wales - Belgium; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-12 Croatia - Italy; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-06-12 Malta - Bulgaria; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-12 Norway - Azerbaijan; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-13 Albania - France; Friendly; 2
    2015-06-13 Gibraltar - Germany; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-13 Poland - Georgia; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-13 Republic of Ireland - Scotland; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-13 Faroe Islands - Greece; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-13 Finland - Hungary; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-06-13 Northern Ireland - Romania; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-13 Armenia - Portugal; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-13 Denmark - Serbia; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-14 Belarus - Spain; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-14 Slovakia - FYR Macedonia; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-14 Ukraine - Luxembourg; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-14 Estonia - San Marino; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-14 Lithuania - Switzerland; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-14 Slovenia - England; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-14 Liechtenstein - Moldova; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-06-14 Russia - Austria; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-14 Sweden - Montenegro; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-06-16 Italy - Portugal; Friendly; X

    ReplyDelete
  14. which leads to this pot distribution for the draw of the European qualifying section of the WC 2018 (7 groups of 6 teams and 2 groups of 5 teams) with ranking and points in parentheses:

    pot 1:
    Germany (2 - 1462)
    Belgium (5 - 1327)
    Romania (6 - 1277)
    Netherlands (7 - 1244)
    England (8 - 1185)
    Portugal (10 - 1137)
    Spain (11 - 1107)
    Croatia (13 - 1023)
    Italy (14 - 1020)

    pot 2:
    Slovakia (15 - 1016)
    Switzerland (16 - 998)
    France (17 - 985)
    Czech Republic (18 - 938)
    Wales (22 - 910)
    Denmark (23 - 876)
    Austria (25 - 854)
    Poland (27 - 828)
    Bosnia-Herzegovina (28 - 819)

    pot 3:
    Ukraine (29 - 807)
    Iceland (31 - 786)
    Greece (33 - 757)
    Sweden (35 - 752)
    Scotland (36 - 740)
    Hungary (40 - 694)
    Republic of Ireland (41 - 692)
    Serbia (42 - 670)
    Northern Ireland (44 - 663)

    pot 4:
    Albania (47 - 641)
    Slovenia (49 - 626)
    Israel (50 - 620)
    Turkey (52 - 614)
    Norway (63 - 538)
    Bulgaria (64 - 537)
    Finland (74 - 442)
    Montenegro (80 - 423)
    Estonia (81 - 410)

    pot 5:
    Cyprus (84 - 391)
    Latvia (86 - 377)
    Armenia (87 - 373)
    Belarus (91 - 361)
    Lithuania (95 - 340)
    FYR Macedonia (103 - 311)
    Moldova (110 - 274)
    Azerbaijan (111 - 272)
    Faroe Islands (118 - 239)

    pot 6:
    Kazakhstan (133 - 189)
    Luxembourg (134 - 187)
    Georgia (140 - 169)
    Liechtenstein (141 - 161)
    Malta (154 - 127)
    San Marino (191 - 40)
    Andorra (202 - 9)

    Changes in pots compared to the a-priori situation in February 2015:
    - Croatia 2 -> 1, Czech Republic 1 -> 2
    - Poland 3 -> 2, Republic of Ireland 2 -> 3
    - Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 -> 2, Ukraine 2 -> 3
    - Wales 3 -> 2, Northern Ireland 4 -> 3, Israel 2 -> 4

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Ed, fantastic work as always!
      Just one more question though, if everything stays the same, but the Czechs win in Iceland and/or Wales win vs Belgium, does the Pot 1 change?

      Delete
    2. BTW it seems that Croatia and Italy could really screw over Slovakia if they draw in Zagreb. In any other case, either with Croatia or Italy winning, Slovakia takes the first pot. Only the draw keeps both Croatia and Italy in Pot 1 and Slovakia in Pot 2.

      Delete
    3. Does this include Portugal's loss to Cape Verde? The match hadn't yet finished when you posted this.

      Delete
    4. as we say in Croatia, HVALA ED!

      Delete
    5. Yes, I took the liberty to include a Portugal loss against Cape Verde in this overview as it was 0:2 over halfway through the second half. And as it turns out.....
      I also included a Russian win against Montenegro, to be complete.

      Delete
  15. A Czech win against Iceland gets them to 1084 points. A Welsh win brings them 1155 points and a draw 991 points. So yes, nogomet, things can still change. Ain't football grand !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is indeed! Though I guess we should expect friendlies being scheduled in June by the majority of these teams. This could change the simulations quite a lot.

      Delete
    2. interesting but I didn't need to know that! what does a Croatia win vs Italy get us to? hvala again

      Delete
    3. @nogomet lets hope for June Friendlies for Czech, Slovakia, Wales and Iceland :-D

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    4. nepoznat, a Croatian win would surely be enough for pot 1: 1138 points.
      nogomet, of course more friendlies will be scheduled in June and that will change the picture to some degree. I will give an up-to-date overview at the end of May, if necessary.
      But Croatia has that item at least this time thoroughly covered with the friendly against Gibraltar :)

      Delete
    5. as we say in Holland, graag gedaan onbekend!

      Delete
  16. Now that we're halfway through the Euro 2016 qualification, can we have the simulations already? It would be interesting to see what each team's chances of qualifying are at this point. Or maybe it's still too early for that? I'm aware that we're still awaiting UEFA's decision on the abandoned Montenegro vs Russia match, but I think it's safe enough to assume that it will be awarded as 0–3.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hi, I want to ask what would Romania's points total, provisional July FIFA ranking, and thus likely WC2018 pot be in the event of a draw or a loss in Northern Ireland in June, with all other predictions equal. Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  18. Romania has nothing to fear. Their pot 1 seeding status is secure:
    with a draw 1166 points, rank 8, pot 1
    with a loss 1111 points, rank 10, pot 1

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi Ed, and Portugal status, what they need to do to secure the position?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. This is a good example of the limitations of the FIFA World Ranking, I guess Romania will become a sought-after friendly match looking at the gap between their rank and their strength.

      Delete
    2. Romania didn't lose to Italy and France also in official games, beat Belgium and draws against Argentina and Uruguay in friendlies.

      Delete
  20. I think Portugal is reasonably secure in pot 1. Of course a win against Armenia is a must for that. If Portugal draws they drop to 1072 points and with a loss to 1040 points and then they could become vulnerable for others behind them like Czech Republic or Wales or one of Croatia/Italy.
    A win in the friendly against Italy also wouldn't hurt: that brings another 41 points extra compared to the predicted draw. A loss in that friendly is not really harmfull to Portugal's pot-1 chances: 1116 points.

    ReplyDelete
  21. For all you out there, wanting to do some ranking calculations yourself. Here's all the information you need to get started:

    http://www.filedropper.com/breakdown20150402

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I <3 Ed! btw Holland is a very nice country, and such nice & welcoming people every time I have visited

      Delete
    2. I meant to also include: dank je wel

      Delete
  22. Edgar, I just believe in transparancy and the old motto: doing is learning !

    ReplyDelete
  23. Ed, thank you again! What an immense amount of work you've done. I think I'll be less annoying with "what if" questions, now that I can calculate the points myself. :)
    BTW, Wales are set to have huge points in June 2015 ranking! That's what you get when you have not played a single friendly in the entire first timeframe.

    ReplyDelete
  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  25. If you think I do all the work (instead of my computer): think again ! Of course the computer have to be told once what to do, but that's only what a programmer really loves to do.
    But anyway, you're very welcome ! And I also like answering smart questions :)

    Re. Wales: you understand the mechanics behind the calculation even better now with the sheet ! Exactly my point.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Can you make UEFA National Ranking with the current results???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure, but for which situation? After all EURO qualifiers in October, after the June qualifiers, the current situation ?

      Delete
  27. Here you go: the UEFA NT-ranking after the elo-predicted EURO-qualifiers in June and the group spot after those matches (Q: spot 1 or 2 in the group, q: spot 3 in the group). Host France and reigning European champion Spain (when qualified) are always seeded in pot 1:

    33,599 France -
    37,163 Spain Q
    40,002 Germany Q
    35,903 England Q
    35,286 Netherlands q
    34,629 Belgium Q
    ----------------------------
    34,208 Portugal Q
    32,698 Italy Q
    31,708 Croatia Q
    30,834 Switzerland Q
    30,785 Ukraine q
    30,758 Romania Q
    ----------------------------
    30,591 Russia q
    30,525 Slovakia Q
    30,003 Czech Republic Q
    29,875 Sweden Q
    29,422 Poland Q
    29,185 Denmark Q
    ----------------------------
    28,800 Bosnia-Herzegovina
    28,292 Austria Q
    27,627 Greece
    27,062 Republic of Ireland q
    26,779 Norway q
    26,735 Hungary q
    ----------------------------
    26,168 Iceland Q
    25,068 Slovenia q
    25,033 Turkey
    24,988 Israel q
    23,892 Scotland
    23,448 Wales Q
    23,041 Albania q
    22,501 Northern Ireland Q
    21,911 Serbia
    21,865 Montenegro
    21,759 Bulgaria
    20,096 Estonia
    19,668 Finland
    19,341 Armenia
    19,232 Lithuania
    18,561 Moldova
    18,118 Cyprus
    16,837 Latvia
    16,819 Belarus
    16,494 Azerbaijan
    16,106 Georgia
    15,894 FYR Macedonia
    13,505 Liechtenstein
    12,907 Luxembourg
    12,654 Kazakhstan
    12,300 Faroe Islands
    11,137 Malta
    8,527 Andorra
    8,477 San Marino
    7,750 Gibraltar

    ReplyDelete
  28. Ed, can you make it for October, after all the qualifying end?
    Without the playoffs who will not enter to count the seeding

    ReplyDelete
  29. OK, here's the UEFA NT-ranking after all the elo-predicted EURO-qualifiers until October and the group spots after EURO-qualifying (Q1 and Q2: spot 1 and 2 in the group, Qq: best nr. 3, q1-8: numbers three of the 8 remaining groups sorted on October 2015 NT-coeff). Please keep in mind that the elo-predictions I use are only 1:0, 0:0 or 0:1. As the scored goals do count in the NT-coefficient, this is only a realistic indication of the resulting coefficient. This ranking including the results of the November play-offs is used as seeding ranking for the EURO 2016 finals draw. Host France and reigning European champion Spain (when qualified) are always seeded in pot 1:


    33,599 France -
    37,062 Spain Q1
    41,335 Germany Q1
    37,419 Netherlands Q2
    35,782 England Q1
    35,602 Belgium Q1
    ----------------------------
    35,138 Portugal Q1
    34,324 Italy Q2
    32,682 Croatia Q1
    32,445 Russia Q1
    31,154 Switzerland Q2
    30,458 Romania Q1
    ----------------------------
    30,248 Sweden Q2
    29,843 Czech Republic Q1
    29,165 Denmark Q2
    28,411 Slovakia Q2
    27,552 Austria Qq
    27,502 Poland Q2
    ----------------------------
    24,101 Wales Q2
    21,261 Northern Ireland Q2

    ----------------------------
    30,784 Ukraine q1
    30,306 Bosnia-Herzegovina q2
    26,322 Hungary q3
    26,241 Slovenia q4
    24,968 Iceland q5
    24,799 Scotland q6
    24,739 Norway q7
    20,516 Albania q8

    ----------------------------
    29,154 Greece
    26,421 Republic of Ireland
    25,313 Turkey
    24,961 Israel
    22,726 Serbia
    22,571 Montenegro
    22,026 Bulgaria
    20,761 Finland
    19,551 Armenia
    19,429 Estonia
    18,898 Lithuania
    18,246 Belarus
    17,901 Moldova
    17,331 Latvia
    16,961 Azerbaijan
    16,546 Georgia
    16,361 FYR Macedonia
    15,638 Cyprus
    12,720 Luxembourg
    12,505 Liechtenstein
    12,441 Kazakhstan
    11,500 Faroe Islands
    10,910 Malta
    8,700 Andorra
    8,450 Gibraltar
    8,370 San Marino

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  30. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  31. looks like wales will make pot 1 after beating israel and belgium unbelievable

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