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Friday, March 27, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (27 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Yemen have advanced, after a 0 - 0 vs. Pakistan played in Bahrain.



As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 26 March 2015.


Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

Pot 1: Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Australia, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, China PR, Iraq
Pot 2: Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Vietnam, Kuwait, Syria
Pot 3: Afghanistan, Thailand, Philippines, Palestine, Maldives, Tajikistan, Lebanon, India
Pot 4: Timor-Leste, Kyrgyzstan, Korea DPR, Myanmar, Turkmenistan, Bhutan, Singapore, Indonesia
Pot 5: Malaysia, Guam, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Yemen, Laos, Chinese Taipei, Cambodia

Changes from previous sims:

Syria replace Maldives in pot 2.
Bhutan replace Yemen in pot 4.

Broken down by pot:

Pot 5

100.00% - Hong Kong
100.00% - Chinese Taipei
100.00% - Laos
100.00% - Yemen
100.00% - Bangladesh
100.00% - Cambodia
99.59% - Guam
82.70% - Malaysia
17.49% - Indonesia
0.22% - Singapore

Pot 4

100.00% - Myanmar
100.00% - Timor-Leste
100.00% - Turkmenistan
100.00% - Bhutan
100.00% - Korea DPR
100.00% - Kyrgyzstan
99.78% - Singapore
82.51% - Indonesia
17.30% - Malaysia
0.41% - Guam

Pot 3

100.00% - Palestine
100.00% - Lebanon
100.00% - India
100.00% - Maldives
100.00% - Tajikistan
95.05% - Philippines
85.71% - Thailand
76.92% - Afghanistan
42.32% - Syria

Pot 2

100.00% - Bahrain
100.00% - Vietnam
100.00% - Jordan
100.00% - Qatar
100.00% - Kuwait
92.92% - Saudi Arabia
57.68% - Syria
55.67% - Oman
51.41% - Iraq
23.08% - Afghanistan
14.29% - Thailand
4.95% - Philippines

Pot 1

100.00% - Korea Republic
100.00% - Uzbekistan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - United Arab Emirates
100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Iran
100.00% - China PR
48.59% - Iraq
44.33% - Oman
7.08% - Saudi Arabia

10 comments:

  1. If Afghanistan wins against Kyrgyzstan on March 31st and Syria draws with Tajikistan, it would be Afghanistan in Pot 2, no?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Correct. Syria has won surprisingly against Jordan yesterday, so they virtually jumped over Afghanistan to pot 2. The next set of friendlies next Tuesday is therefore very important for both countries. If Syria wins they will have 225 points and cannot be overtaken by Afghanistan, with a Syrian draw or loss and an Afghanistan win, pot 2 should be for Afghanistan.

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Tell me pot 3 teams actually all

    ReplyDelete
  6. The April FIFA-ranking for AFC teams, used to seed the draw for the second qualifying round (8 groups of 5 teams) for the World Cup 2018 (ranking - points):

    pot 1:
    Iran (40 - 689)
    Japan (50 - 614)
    Korea Republic (56 - 575)
    Australia (64 - 531)
    United Arab Emirates (68 - 501)
    Uzbekistan (72 - 476)
    China PR (82 - 408)
    Iraq (86 - 385)

    pot 2:
    Saudi Arabia (95 - 349)
    Oman (97 - 341)
    Qatar (99 - 337)
    Jordan (103 - 316)
    Bahrain (108 - 299)
    Vietnam (124 - 229)
    Syria (126 - 225)
    Kuwait (127 - 224)

    pot 3:
    Afghanistan (135 - 203)
    Philippines (139 - 193)
    Palestine (140 - 192)
    Maldives (141 - 191)
    Thailand (143 - 183)
    Tajikistan (144 - 175)
    Lebanon (145 - 163)
    India (148 - 161)

    pot 4:
    Timor-Leste (152 - 151)
    Kygyzstan (153 - 146)
    Korea DPR (157 - 137)
    Myanmar (158 - 133)
    Indonesia (159 - 131)
    Turkmenistan (159 - 131)
    Singapore (162 - 130)
    Bhutan (163 - 128)

    pot 5:
    Malaysia (164 - 123)
    Hong Kong (167 - 116)
    Bangladesh (167 - 116)
    Yemen (170 - 111)
    Guam (174 - 97)
    Laos (177 - 88)
    Chinese Taipei (178 - 86)
    Cambodia (178 - 86)

    ReplyDelete
  7. @Ed Thanks again!

    @Vineet Group of 5 teams - one team from each pot.

    ReplyDelete