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Friday, July 3, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF format and pots

The format is almost official, the pots are not.

FIFA have released their Statistical Kit for the Preliminary Draw.

Remember CAF announced in January the format for the African qualifiers.


The competing teams will have to go through three preliminary rounds in order to bring the number of teams down to 20 so as to be able to constitute five (5) groups of four teams, where the first from each group will qualifier for the World Cup.

It seems they have changed their mind.

Page 11 of the Statistical Kit mentions only three total rounds.

  • 26 games in Round 1
  • 40 in Round 2
  • 60 in Round 3
Assuming there are no typos and no jokes from someone in the FIFA offices, it means there will be only 2 KO rounds.

Now, a group of 4 teams playing home-and-away makes for 12 matches. Five group of 4 teams equals 60 matches, so Round 3 is actually the group round, not a KO round.

Round 2 is obviously the last KO round before the group stage.

Same goes for Round 1. Lowest 26 teams enter.

So, to recap:

Round 1: Lowest ranked 26 teams. 13 winners advance to the next round.
Round 2: Top 27 teams + 13 winners = 40 teams.
Round 3: Five groups of four teams.

I don't know whether the full draw will be done on 25 July or there will be another draw for the group stage.

These would be the pots for the preliminary rounds if CAF choose the July ranking.

Remember Zimbabwe were expelled.

Round 1

Pot 1: Angola, Ethiopia, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Namibia, Kenya, Madagascar, Botswana, Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Swaziland, Burundi
Pot 2: Tanzania, Gambia, Liberia, Central African Republic, Chad, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe, Comoros, South Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti

Round 2

Pot 1: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Tunisia, Senegal, Cameroon, Congo, Cape Verde Islands, Egypt, Nigeria, Guinea, Congo DR, Equatorial Guinea, Mali, Gabon, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Zambia, Uganda, Rwanda
Pot 2: Togo, Morocco, Sudan, Mozambique, Libya, Niger, Benin + 13 Round 1 winners

21 comments:

  1. Hello Edgar
    Kenya 0-0 Ethiopia
    Angola 2 -0 Swaziland
    can you give me the points of Libya, Niger, Benin , Angola
    Which three teams of them will be in round 2`
    if the fifa will put these matches in the next ranking

    ReplyDelete
  2. Oh, that was a vital win for Angola. With that they jumped easily into pot 2 of round 2 with 355 pts. The team that drops to round 1 will be decided on decimals:
    Niger has 345.31 pts, Libya has 345.36 pts and Benin has 345.46 pts in the July ranking, so Niger drops back to pot 1 in round 1.
    Btw even a win for Ethiopia wouldn't have been enough for them to jump to round 2.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Ed
    When will be the second round?
    Group stage draw will be hold on which ranking?
    Egypt now is the 9th, can we jump to the 5th in the next months if we beat Chad in next September?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hossam, on your first two questions I don't have an answer. Edgar has reverse-engineered the structure of CAF qualifying out of the given number of matches per qualifying round, but any other information regarding CAF qualifying is presently very scarce, if not absent.
    The chances of Egypt to become CAF-5th in the FIFA ranking are very slim, for this year at least. You are some 100 points behind the current number 5 Senegal and after the september-qualifiers (even with an Egypt-win and Senegal-loss) that will still be some 80 points in favour of Senegal. Keep winning important, high-valued matches and eventually next year Egypt will climb the CAF-ladder again....

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ed
      how many points will Egypt had in December ranking provided that:
      - win against Chad in CAN qualifications in October
      -double win against Sierra Leone in WC qualification in November

      Delete
    2. Hossam, provided Egypt wins all qualifiers this autumn and the rest of the scheduled matches goes according to elo-predictions you will have at around 673 pts in December and will be CAF 7th then. Still some 60 points behind CAF 5th, Cape Verde.

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    3. thanks alot Ed for your effort

      can you give us the expected CAF december ranking table ?
      with elo-predictions .
      sorry for overload.

      Delete
  6. Hossam, no problem. You gotta find your information somewhere ! Here are all the CAF-involved scheduled matches at the moment for the rest of this year and their elo-predictions:

    2015-07-31 Madagascar - Seychelles; Friendly; 1
    2015-08-02 Maldives - Seychelles; Friendly; X
    2015-08-04 Madagascar - Maldives; Friendly; 1
    2015-08-13 Libya - Tunisia; Friendly; X
    2015-08-15 Tunisia - Morocco; Friendly; 1
    2015-08-17 Libya - Morocco; Friendly; X
    2015-09-04 Djibouti - Togo; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Liberia - Tunisia; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Central African Republic - Congo DR; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Madagascar - Angola; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-09-04 Benin - Mali; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-09-04 South Sudan - Equatorial Guinea; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Comoros - Uganda; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Guinea-Bissau - Congo; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Kenya - Zambia; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-09-04 Libya - Cape Verde Islands; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-09-04 Sao Tomé e Príncipe - Morocco; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Chad - Egypt; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Tanzania - Nigeria; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Mauritius - Mozambique; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Rwanda - Ghana; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Sierra Leone - Cote d'Ivoire; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Burundi - Niger; Continental qualifier; 1
    2015-09-04 Namibia - Senegal; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Swaziland - Malawi; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-09-04 Zimbabwe - Guinea; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-09-04 Gambia - Cameroon; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-04 Mauritania - South Africa; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-05 Botswana - Burkina Faso; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-05 Seychelles - Ethiopia; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-09-06 Lesotho - Algeria; Continental qualifier; 2
    2015-10-08 Central African Republic - Madagascar; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-10-08 Chad - Sierra Leone; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-10-08 Comoros - Lesotho; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-10-08 Djibouti - Swaziland; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-10-08 Eritrea - Botswana; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-10-08 Gambia - Namibia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-08 Liberia - Guinea-Bissau; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-08 Mauritius - Kenya; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-10-08 Sao Tomé e Príncipe - Ethiopia; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-10-08 Seychelles - Burundi; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-10-08 Somalia - Niger; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-10-08 South Sudan - Mauritania; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-10-08 Tanzania - Malawi; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-10-13 Botswana - Eritrea; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Burundi - Seychelles; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Ethiopia - Sao Tomé e Príncipe; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Guinea-Bissau - Liberia; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-10-13 Kenya - Mauritius; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Lesotho - Comoros; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Madagascar - Central African Republic; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Malawi - Tanzania; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Mauritania - South Sudan; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Namibia - Gambia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Niger - Somalia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Sierra Leone - Chad; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-13 Swaziland - Djibouti; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-10-16 Cameroon - Congo; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-16 Chad - Gabon; Friendly; 2
    2015-10-16 Congo DR - Central African Republic; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-16 Burundi - Ethiopia; Friendly; X
    2015-10-16 Uganda - Sudan; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-16 South Africa - Angola; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-16 Zambia - Mozambique; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-16 Zimbabwe - Lesotho; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-16 Guinea - Senegal; Friendly; X
    2015-10-16 Mali - Mauritania; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-16 Ghana - Cote d'Ivoire; Friendly; X
    2015-10-16 Niger - Togo; Friendly; X
    2015-10-16 Nigeria - Burkina Faso; Friendly; 1

    ReplyDelete
  7. and the rest:

    2015-10-23 Central African Republic - Congo DR; Friendly; 2
    2015-10-23 Congo - Cameroon; Friendly; 2
    2015-10-23 Gabon - Chad; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-23 Ethiopia - Burundi; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-23 Sudan - Uganda; Friendly; X
    2015-10-23 Angola - South Africa; Friendly; X
    2015-10-23 Lesotho - Zimbabwe; Friendly; X
    2015-10-23 Mozambique - Zambia; Friendly; X
    2015-10-23 Mauritania - Mali; Friendly; 2
    2015-10-23 Senegal - Guinea; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-23 Burkina Faso - Nigeria; Friendly; 2
    2015-10-23 Cote d'Ivoire - Ghana; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-23 Togo - Niger; Friendly; 1
    2015-11-12 Angola - South Africa; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-12 Benin - Burkina Faso; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-12 Sierra Leone - Egypt; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Lesotho - Ghana; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Madagascar - Senegal; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Swaziland - Nigeria; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Botswana - Mali; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Liberia - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Libya - Rwanda; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-12 Morocco - Equatorial Guinea; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-12 Mozambique - Gabon; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-12 Kenya - Cape Verde Islands; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-12 Mauritania - Tunisia; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Namibia - Guinea; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-12 Burundi - Congo DR; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-12 Niger - Cameroon; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Ethiopia - Congo; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-12 Sudan - Zambia; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-12 Malawi - Algeria; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2015-11-12 Togo - Uganda; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-15 Algeria - Malawi; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Burkina Faso - Benin; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Cameroon - Niger; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Cape Verde Islands - Kenya; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Congo - Ethiopia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Congo DR - Burundi; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Cote d'Ivoire - Liberia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Egypt - Sierra Leone; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Equatorial Guinea - Morocco; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-15 Gabon - Mozambique; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Ghana - Lesotho; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Guinea - Namibia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Mali - Botswana; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Nigeria - Swaziland; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Rwanda - Libya; World Cup qualifier; X
    2015-11-15 Senegal - Madagascar; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 South Africa - Angola; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Tunisia - Mauritania; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2015-11-15 Uganda - Togo; World Cup qualifier; 1

    and resulting CAF December-ranking:
    1 ALG 957
    2 CIV 949
    3 GHA 801
    4 SEN 752
    5 CPV 738
    6 TUN 732
    7 EGY 673
    8 CMR 651
    9 NGA 650
    10 CGO 649
    11 COD 588
    12 MLI 578
    13 GUI 569
    14 GAB 522
    15 UGA 496
    16 ZAM 489
    17 EQG 482
    18 RSA 480
    19 MAR 458
    20 LBY 449
    21 BFA 443
    22 TOG 428
    23 ETH 392
    24 RWA 376
    25 BEN 374
    26 SDN 323
    27 KEN 322
    28 ZIM 320
    29 MWI 307
    30 ANG 304
    31 MOZ 299
    32 NIG 297
    33 BDI 295
    34 NAM 282
    35 SWZ 242
    36 BOT 234
    37 SLE 231
    38 MAD 223
    39 MTN 215
    40 LBR 205
    41 LES 203
    42 GNB 188
    43 TAN 185
    44 GAM 180
    45 CTA 127
    46 CHA 107
    47 SSD 55
    48 MRI 53
    49 STP 52
    50 COM 44
    51 SEY 38
    52 ERI 33
    53 SOM 0
    54 DJI 0

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  8. Egypt will play friendly against Australia in October, provided a win for Egypt, how many points will Egypt have in december ranking?

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    Replies
    1. What is your source for this game? There is no evidence of this friendly on the whole internet!

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  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. How many points will Tunisia , Cap verde , Senegal have in december ranking if these results occur?

    2015-08-15 Tunisia - Morocco; Friendly; X
    2015- 09-04 lybia -cap verde 1
    2015-09-04 Liberia - Tunisia; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-09-04 Namibia - Senegal; Continental qualifier; X
    2015-10-16 Guinea - Senegal; Friendly; 1

    ReplyDelete
  11. A friendly win against Australia in October gives you 3 points more: 676. With the results you mentioned Tunisia gets to 702 pts, Cape Verde to 709 pts and Senegal to 708 pts.

    In the meantime there are 2 new friendlies added in the fixture list:
    2015-10-09 Algeria - Guinea; Friendly; 1
    2015-10-13 Algeria - Senegal; Friendly; 1
    Senegal drops to 680 pts with that extra friendly loss (and the loss and draw you mentioned).

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  12. Egypt will play against Ecuador friendly in Septembre,provided Egypt win ,how many points will had in December ranking??

    ReplyDelete
  13. @Ed

    Thanks for the effort - you're great :)

    @Hossam

    How can Egypt play vs. Ecuador in September? Ecuador play Honduras on 8 Sep, while Egypt play Chad on 4 Sep.

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    Replies
    1. In october not september sorry

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    2. Ecuador play two World Cup qualifiers in October against Argentina and Bolivia .

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