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Friday, July 3, 2015

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 July.

15 games left: The final two games of the 2015 Copa America and 13 friendlies (most of them CHAN qualifiers).

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 30 teams:


Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank


Argentina 1439 1540 1 1
Chile 1055 1166 12 8
USA 727 748 35 34
Senegal 705 715 39 39
Paraguay 603 692 56 42
Guinea 588 598 58 57
Peru 566 635 58 46
Mali 542 550 64 61
South Africa 477 483 72 70
Zambia 469 482 73 70
Uganda 464 475 73 72
Mozambique 346 354 95 94
Angola 344 355 100 92
Ethiopia 327 346 104 94
Guatemala 311 342 105 100
Zimbabwe 286 300 114 111
Namibia 276 309 116 107
Kenya 254 280 122 114
Botswana 250 261 123 117
Guinea-Bissau 213 288 136 112
Lesotho 213 226 136 127
Swaziland 206 232 140 126
Burundi 196 217 143 131
Tanzania 191 217 144 131
Gambia 188 272 144 115
Liberia 126 205 165 138
Mauritius 71 113 182 170
Seychelles 52 80 187 178
Comoros 37 78 193 178
Djibouti 4 38 207 192

In the table below I've used the minimum points for these teams.

Best movers:

34 - Belize
29 - Paraguay
28 - Faroe Islands

Worst movers:

-29 - Central African Republic
-28 - Sierra Leone
-27 - Costa Rica

Best movers in the top 50:

27 - Venezuela
15 - Albania
14 - Iceland

Worst movers in the top 50:

-27 - Costa Rica
-19 - Greece
-17 - Mexico

9 teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Wales (at least 11 - 21 in May 2015)
Austria (15 - 17 in May 1999)
Slovakia (15 - 16 in September 2010)
Iceland (23 - 28 in October 2014)
Albania (36 - 37 in July 2013)
Faroe Islands (74 - 102 in June 2015)
Belize (at least 121 - 128 in March 2013)
Philippines (at least 126 - 127 in February 2014)
Guam (at least 156 - 160 in February 2014)

Argentina will return to its best ever ranking. They were also 1st in June 2008.

4 teams will drop to new lows:

Italy (17 - 16 in October 2010)
Mexico (40 - 33 in July 2009)
Fiji (at most 199 - 196 in May 2015)
Bahamas (at most 200 - 198 in May 2015)
Mongolia (at most 205 - 200 in May 2015)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Romania (8 - 8 in March 2000) - 15 years and 4 months
Argentina (1 - 1 in June 2008) - 7 years and 1 month
Poland (30 - 29 in March 2009) - 6 years and 4 months
Sudan (90 - 88 in June 2009) - 6 years and 1 month
Northern Ireland (37 - 30 in October 2009) - 5 years and 9 months
Swaziland (at least 140 - 136 in August 2010) - 4 years and 11 months
Syria (at least 119 - 117 in January 2012) - 3 years and 6 months
China PR (77 - 69 in August 2012) - 2 years and 11 months
Nicaragua (at least 145 - 145 in February 2013) - 2 years and 5 months
Niger (at least 97 - 93 in March 2013) - 2 years and 4 months

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Georgia (at most 154 - 156 in April 1994) - 21 years and 3 months
Chad (at most 173 - 174 in March 2003) - 12 years and 4 months
Greece (at most 44 - 45 in May 2003) - 12 years and 2 months
Malaysia (167 - 169 in June 2008) - 7 years and 1 month
Montenegro (81 - 89 in September 2009) - 5 years and 10 months
Central African Republic (at most 170 - 172 in September 2010) - 4 years and 10 months
Tahiti (at most 187 - 194 in September 2010) - 4 years and 10 months
Sierra Leone (at most 111 - 118 in May 2011) - 4 years and 2 months
Mali (at most 61 - 69 in January 2012) - 3 years and 6 months
Uzbekistan (75 - 77 in February 2012) - 3 years and 5 months
Malta (at most 159 - 159 in February 2012) - 3 years and 5 months
USA (at most 34 - 36 in August 2012) - 2 years and 11 months
Switzerland (18 - 20 in September 2012) - 2 years and 10 months
Nigeria (at most 56 - 57 in November 2012) - 2 years and 8 months
Finland (90 - 91 in November 2012) - 2 years and 8 months
Tanzania (at most 131 - 134 in November 2012) - 2 years and 8 months
South Africa (at most 70 - 85 in January 2013) - 2 years and 6 months
Tajikistan (at most 148 - 152 in March 2013) - 2 years and 4 months
Luxembourg (at most 146 - 148 in May 2013) - 2 years and 2 months
Uruguay (13 - 19 in June 2013) - 2 years and 1 month
Armenia (89 - 89 in June 2013) - 2 years and 1 month
Botswana (at most 117 - 127 in June 2013) - 2 years and 1 month

July 2015 rank - Team - July 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Argentina 1439 2 -57
2 Germany 1411 -1 -364
3 Belgium 1244 -1 -265
4 Colombia 1217 0 -218
5 Netherlands 1204 1 -174
6 Brazil 1186 -1 -206
7 Portugal 1177 0 -52
8 Romania 1166 4 51
9 England 1157 6 106
10 Wales 1155 12 226
11 Spain 1110 -1 -37
12 Chile 1055 7 66
13 Uruguay 1036 -5 -147
14 Croatia 1023 4 31
15 Austria 1016 5 70
15 Slovakia 1016 2 4
17 Italy 1001 -4 -100
18 Switzerland 997 -7 -149
19 Algeria 941 2 0
20 Czech Republic 933 -4 -103
21 Côte d'Ivoire 917 3 1
22 France 882 -13 -282
23 Iceland 877 14 108
24 Denmark 876 5 68
25 Ghana 827 9 27
26 Bosnia-Herzegovina 819 6 17
27 Ukraine 791 8 7
28 Russia 782 -2 -51
29 Scotland 774 -1 -44
30 Poland 769 2 -33
31 Hungary 763 11 78
32 Tunisia 758 -3 -50
33 Sweden 752 6 15
34 Ecuador 738 -3 -68
35 USA 727 -8 -96
36 Albania 722 15 98
37 Northern Ireland 721 7 45
38 Iran 716 3 -1
39 Senegal 705 -3 -77
40 Mexico 697 -17 -229
41 Costa Rica 695 -27 -361
42 Cameroon 672 7 31
43 Serbia 662 2 -11
44 Greece 661 -19 -238
45 Venezuela 643 27 146
46 Congo 630 1 -36
47 Turkey 627 10 37
48 Slovenia 626 0 -27
49 Japan 621 3 -2
50 Israel 620 -10 -105
51 Cape Verde Islands 608 -13 -138
51 Korea Republic 608 7 21
51 Republic of Ireland 608 9 27
54 Egypt 606 1 10
55 Paraguay 603 30 221
56 Nigeria 601 -13 -80
57 Guinea 588 -12 -85
58 Peru 566 3 20
59 Australia 559 4 27
60 Congo DR 555 -4 -36
61 Panama 549 -7 -48
62 Equatorial Guinea 546 -12 -89
63 Trinidad and Tobago 543 4 24
64 Mali 542 -12 -81
65 Gabon 524 -6 -59
66 Bolivia 511 23 140
67 Norway 495 -3 -33
68 Bulgaria 489 -6 -48
69 United Arab Emirates 487 4 -9
70 Burkina Faso 481 -4 -39
71 South Africa 477 -2 -38
72 Zambia 469 -4 -48
73 Uganda 464 -2 -40
74 Faroe Islands 456 28 138
75 Uzbekistan 453 -1 -26
76 Jamaica 437 -11 -87
77 China PR 436 2 27
78 Rwanda 433 16 87
79 Haiti 428 -3 -14
80 Honduras 427 -5 -35
81 Montenegro 423 -11 -90
82 Estonia 420 9 50
83 Togo 415 -6 -23
84 Morocco 394 8 25
85 Cyprus 391 2 14
86 Iraq 382 0 1
87 Latvia 377 -5 -13
88 El Salvador 374 1 3
89 Armenia 373 -5 -10
90 Finland 371 -12 -39
90 Sudan 371 18 79
92 Jordan 355 11 39
92 Saudi Arabia 355 6 26
94 Mozambique 346 -13 -45
95 Benin 345 15 56
95 Libya 345 24 107
95 Niger 345 22 94
95 Qatar 345 2 11
99 Angola 344 -11 -30
100 Belarus 341 -20 -59
101 Oman 329 0 10
102 Canada 328 7 38
103 Ethiopia 327 -4 3
104 Cuba 313 3 18
105 FYR Macedonia 311 -5 -10
105 Guatemala 311 -12 -37
107 Antigua and Barbuda 303 -3 -10
108 Azerbaijan 302 7 30
108 Malawi 302 -13 -43
110 Lithuania 301 -14 -40
111 Sierra Leone 300 -28 -87
112 Zimbabwe 286 7 48
113 Bahrain 282 -7 -17
114 Namibia 276 -9 -27
115 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 268 -3 -11
116 Syria 262 5 28
117 Belize 257 38 126
118 Palestine 255 0 13
119 Kenya 254 4 34
119 St. Kitts and Nevis 254 -5 -21
121 Botswana 250 -10 -35
121 Madagascar 250 -8 -28
123 Kuwait 242 2 24
124 Moldova 236 0 17
124 Philippines 236 13 53
126 Dominican Republic 227 -10 -30
127 St. Lucia 225 9 39
128 Mauritania 224 21 78
129 Korea DPR 222 17 71
130 Lebanon 218 5 30
131 Guinea-Bissau 213 24 82
131 Lesotho 213 -9 -13
133 Afghanistan 212 18 74
134 Aruba 211 17 73
135 Bermuda 209 -9 -8
135 New Zealand 209 3 29
137 Swaziland 206 25 85
138 Thailand 199 -9 -8
139 Barbados 198 -7 2
140 Burundi 196 -6 2
141 Kazakhstan 193 -8 -2
142 Tanzania 191 -15 -24
143 Gambia 188 17 64
143 Nicaragua 188 8 50
143 Vietnam 188 -16 -27
146 Luxembourg 187 -15 -14
147 Liechtenstein 182 -18 -25
148 Tajikistan 181 -9 8
149 Curaçao 174 -5 15
150 Puerto Rico 169 17 55
150 Singapore 169 4 33
152 Guyana 167 6 38
152 Turkmenistan 167 21 68
154 Georgia 165 -15 -8
155 Guam 163 19 66
155 Hong Kong 163 9 45
157 India 161 -16 0
158 Kyrgyzstan 160 19 71
159 Malta 157 -14 3
160 Grenada 153 0 29
161 Myanmar 145 -18 -15
162 Indonesia 134 -7 3
163 Timor-Leste 130 -17 -21
164 Bhutan 128 -5 0
165 Liberia 126 -17 -23
166 New Caledonia 118 3 7
167 Malaysia 117 -5 -4
168 Bangladesh 115 -2 -1
168 Suriname 115 -18 -26
170 Central African Republic 111 -29 -50
171 Yemen 104 -6 -13
172 Pakistan 101 -2 -5
173 Chad 100 -1 0
174 Dominica 98 -6 -14
175 US Virgin Islands 97 -4 -7
176 Maldives 87 2 1
177 Laos 86 -2 -8
178 Montserrat 74 3 0
179 Chinese Taipei 72 -1 -14
180 Mauritius 71 -4 -19
181 Cambodia 66 -3 -20
181 Macau 66 4 0
183 Sri Lanka 62 3 -2
184 Brunei Darussalam 61 0 -8
185 Nepal 60 -2 -10
186 Seychelles 52 1 -8
187 Tahiti 50 -5 -21
188 Cayman Islands 48 1 0
188 Sao Tome e Principe 48 0 -10
190 Solomon Islands 44 0 0
191 San Marino 40 1 0
192 Comoros 37 -2 -7
193 Turks and Caicos Islands 33 0 0
194 British Virgin Islands 27 0 -2
195 South Sudan 24 2 0
196 Samoa 19 2 -2
197 Tonga 17 3 0
197 Vanuatu 17 3 0
199 Fiji 16 -4 -12
200 Bahamas 13 -4 -13
201 American Samoa 12 2 0
202 Andorra 9 2 1
202 Papua New Guinea 9 0 -4
204 Eritrea 8 0 0
205 Mongolia 6 -6 -13
205 Somalia 6 1 0
207 Cook Islands 4 0 0
207 Djibouti 4 0 0
209 Anguilla 0 0 -2


25 comments:

  1. There's one thing I don't understand about the FIFA World Rankings: Why does Bhutan (for example) not lose any points despite losing their past two games?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's because they only had 2 games in the last 12 months. And the points are divided by number of games, but no fewer than 5. Now they have 4 games and even with another defeat the total wouldn't have dropped.

      Delete
  2. When was Hungary so high up in the ranking? I checked the FIFA website but you can only go back till '93, no higher position (nor the same).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From September 2011 until September 2013 Hungary had their best period in the FIFA ranking so far. They were a regular in the 30-40 ranges then with a record high of 27 in September 2011. You are closing in on that record now.
      Btw the FIFA ranking exists from August 1993.

      Delete
  3. vou're linked from Austrians most popular site!!!
    http://sport.orf.at/stories/2233926/2233927/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Best ranking for Austria ever!!!

      Delete
    2. Very nice of ORF to link to my site. Not many media outlets do this.

      Delete
    3. at the Moment the link is added for every new ranking:
      http://sport.orf.at/stories/2234239/2234241/

      Delete
  4. how would be calculate that gama albania betwin serbia in oktomber 2014, because that game is going in CAS Laussane. serbia has won that game in table 3.0, now cas wild be decide thats 10 july 2015proably in favor to albania 3.0, .
    question ist hauw will be recalculate this game pleace, do you now ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If CAS decides to favour Albania, the matchpoints for this match will be altered: for Serbia set to 0 and for Albania to 3*(200-43)*0.99*2.5 = 1165.725. Serbia would then have 523 pts (instead of 675 pts) and Albania would then have 888 pts (instead of 722 pts) in the August ranking.

      Delete
    2. thanks for yours investings time Eduard, and for yours answeres.

      Delete
  5. If i'm right, there are only 3 teams which could become nr 1 at the end of 2015: Argentina, Germany & Belgium. Argentina needs a win vs. Mexico to be 100% sure of nr1 spot (if no other friendlies are planned), Germany and Belgium have almost equal points if they win everything.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Argentina play four WC qualifiers in October and November 2015.

      Delete
    2. ok, roonba didn't have them in their database, but that's obvious... no yet planned ;).

      Delete
    3. Jeroen, if you are calculating FIFA rankings your only source for matches must be the fixture-list on fifa.com, I would think. Not that the CONMEBOL-qualifiers are included there....

      Delete
  6. why GER pts are 1411??
    i think their pts may be 1226
    the only change is that WC final match vs Argentina was counted in 2015 time frame
    so why ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Go to fifa.com and look at the time frame averages for Germany. You could spot your mistake.

      Delete
  7. Court of Arbritration for Sport (CAS) has now awarded Albania a 3-0 victory in reversing the original decision of a 3-0 Serbia win between the two nations last year in a UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifer. Would this decision have affected not only the FIFA World Rankings, but additionally either Serbia or Albania's Pots for UEFA Qualification for the upcoming World Cup?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Yes. Serbia will go to 523 potins, thus being surpassed by Turkey in pot 3.
    Albania will reach 888 points, reaching pot 2, and leaving Bosnia in pot 3.

    Now, pot 2 has: Slovakia, Austria, Italy, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Albania, France, Iceland, Denmark

    Pot 3 has: Bosnia, Ukraine, Scotland, Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Northern Ireland, Greece, Turkey

    Pot 4 has: Slovenia, Israel, Ireland, Serbia, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Estonia.

    Locked? No, because UEFA is still on the verge (until July 16) to say if they will punish Croatia duw the Nazi symbol on the field, depending on the outcome, Croatia can drop to pot 2, while Slovakia or Itay can go to pot 1, depending if UEFA will punish them, and how (give the match win to Italy, or other thing).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could they want to recalculate the whole ranking, because a defeat for Serbia would have meant them lower in the ranks, and therefore less points for say Denmark, who beat Serbia twice since then.

      Delete
    2. Thats true, and since then, Italy also beat Albania, which could change the rankings from pot 1 as well.

      But dunno what they will do. Perhaps Ed can do the recalculation to let us know.

      Delete
  9. As far as I know already published rankings are not recalculated following a decision regarding the result of played matches. Even if UEFA's earlier decision has influenced the pot-distribution for the WCq-draw.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Does the CAS decision regarding Serbia v Albania game has any influence now on this ranking and especially on pots for WC Russia 2018 Q's?

    ReplyDelete
  11. No, the decision regarding Serbia - Albania won't affect the seeding because it happened after the deadline for matches.

    ReplyDelete