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Friday, July 24, 2015

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (24 July 2015)

Finally found the time to for this.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 23 July 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:



20.50% - Group A
17.58% - Group I
16.47% - Group C
14.82% - Group G
11.55% - Group D
8.75% - Group F
4.47% - Group H
3.42% - Group E
2.44% - Group B

Top 10 most likely best 3rd team:

13.28% - Ukraine
12.24% - Russia
8.52% - Albania
7.65% - Netherlands
7.59% - Czech Republic
6.81% - Denmark
5.61% - Scotland
4.67% - Iceland
4.58% - Hungary
3.32% - Poland

Top 10 most likely to be involved in play-offs:

73.93% - Slovenia
67.68% - Ukraine
63.12% - Norway
60.66% - Russia
50.58% - Albania
47.52% - Israel
46.83% - Scotland
45.43% - Hungary
38.47% - Northern Ireland
34.71% - Bosnia-Herzegovina

Top 10 most likely to be seeded in the play-offs:

66.04% - Ukraine
60.03% - Russia
34.58% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
31.80% - Hungary
28.75% - Netherlands
28.49% - Czech Republic
21.82% - Slovenia
16.67% - Switzerland
16.24% - Sweden
14.02% - Republic of Ireland

Top 10 most likely to qualify through play-offs:

47.44% - Ukraine
40.29% - Russia
29.59% - Slovenia
25.50% - Netherlands
23.30% - Norway
22.87% - Scotland
22.37% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
20.18% - Czech Republic
19.59% - Hungary
19.15% - Israel

Qualification chances:

100.00% - England
99.63% - Austria
99.42% - Spain
99.30% - Croatia
99.03% - Slovakia
98.84% - Italy
98.79% - Germany
98.61% - Portugal
97.97% - Romania
97.18% - Belgium
95.65% - Wales
93.87% - Sweden
93.25% - Switzerland
91.04% - Iceland
91.00% - Netherlands
90.60% - Denmark
84.58% - Poland
83.61% - Czech Republic
78.86% - Ukraine
71.86% - Hungary
71.79% - Russia
67.23% - Northern Ireland
62.07% - Albania
49.58% - Scotland
48.02% - Slovenia
28.77% - Norway
27.15% - Israel
27.11% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
24.10% - Republic of Ireland
12.09% - Bulgaria
8.97% - Turkey
3.23% - Montenegro
2.08% - Cyprus
1.25% - Estonia
1.09% - Finland
0.81% - Lithuania
0.78% - Greece
0.39% - Belarus
0.14% - Armenia
0.11% - Azerbaijan
0.10% - Faroe Islands
0.02% - Georgia
0.02% - FYR Macedonia
0.01% - Liechtenstein

Final tournament draw

Pot 4

94.74% - Wales
86.42% - Iceland
67.23% - Northern Ireland
61.86% - Albania
49.20% - Scotland
40.80% - Slovenia
26.82% - Norway
24.66% - Israel
24.03% - Poland
21.24% - Slovakia
19.07% - Denmark
17.69% - Hungary
15.14% - Republic of Ireland
12.09% - Bulgaria
11.55% - Romania
6.16% - Austria
5.65% - Czech Republic
4.70% - Turkey
3.17% - Montenegro
2.08% - Cyprus
1.25% - Estonia
1.09% - Finland
1.06% - Ukraine
0.81% - Lithuania
0.47% - Sweden
0.39% - Belarus
0.20% - Russia
0.14% - Armenia
0.11% - Azerbaijan
0.10% - Faroe Islands
0.02% - Croatia
0.02% - Georgia
0.02% - FYR Macedonia
0.01% - Switzerland
0.01% - Liechtenstein

Pot 3

75.50% - Austria
72.10% - Romania
71.96% - Slovakia
69.46% - Czech Republic
64.71% - Denmark
54.72% - Poland
51.86% - Hungary
40.98% - Sweden
22.05% - Russia
16.96% - Ukraine
14.08% - Switzerland
8.96% - Republic of Ireland
8.82% - Croatia
7.22% - Slovenia
5.15% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
4.62% - Iceland
4.27% - Turkey
2.49% - Israel
1.95% - Norway
0.91% - Wales
0.38% - Scotland
0.30% - Portugal
0.28% - Greece
0.21% - Albania
0.06% - Montenegro

Pot 2

90.00% - Croatia
79.03% - Switzerland
72.85% - Portugal
59.77% - Ukraine
52.42% - Sweden
52.18% - Belgium
52.14% - Italy
49.54% - Russia
21.96% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
17.97% - Austria
14.32% - Romania
8.50% - Czech Republic
8.02% - England
6.82% - Denmark
5.83% - Slovakia
5.83% - Poland
2.31% - Hungary
0.50% - Greece
0.01% - Netherlands

Pot 1

99.42% - Spain
98.79% - Germany
91.98% - England
90.99% - Netherlands
46.70% - Italy
45.00% - Belgium
25.46% - Portugal
1.07% - Ukraine
0.46% - Croatia
0.13% - Switzerland

26 comments:

  1. What is the criterium for the Final tournament draw? FIFA-Ranking by the time of the draw?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Daniel, it's the EURO's, so UEFA organises and thus the UEFA NT-coefficient ranking is used to seed the final draw.

    ReplyDelete
  3. That explains how Wales can be pot 1 for UEFA World Cup qualification but pot 4 in EURO 16 finals draw. A marked difference

    ReplyDelete
  4. Even in Wales we are bemused by the FIFA rankings

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/news/newsid=2262387.html#euro+2016+play+final+tournament+draw+info

    ReplyDelete
  6. 100% for England is not correct, theoretically they still can fail.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's true, but Elo trusts them to advance in each of the 10000 simulations.

      Delete
  7. If Netherlands qualify via the play offs, can they still be seeded in Pot 1 for the Finals ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If they qualify via the play-offs (and that is a big IF already) then they are seeded for the finals draw conform the UEFA NT-coefficient ranking, so most likely pot 1 indeed.

      Delete
    2. Looks to me like France, Spain, Germany and England will make pot 1, leaving Belgium, Italy, Portugal and Netherlands scrapping for the last two spots (assuming qualification).

      That will leave two of the "bigger" teams lurking in pot 2.

      Delete
  8. For those who want to experiment with the National team ranking: http://www.filedropper.com/uefanationalteamranking

    ReplyDelete
  9. Edgar, will there be an update of the sumulation?

    For those who like the UEFA National Team Ranking, I have also made an Excel sheet, with retroactive ranking too: https://t.co/AURQJ5nPdW

    ReplyDelete
  10. UEFA NT-ranking after the September-qualifiers and the elo-predicted EURO-qualifiers in October. Indicated are the group spots after EURO-qualifying (Q1 and Q2: spot 1 and 2 in the group, Qq: best nr. 3, q1-8: numbers three of the 8 remaining groups sorted on October 2015 NT-coeff). Please keep in mind that the elo-predictions I use are only 1:0, 0:0 or 0:1. As the scored goals do count in the NT-coefficient, this is only a realistic indication of the resulting coefficient. This ranking plus the results of the November play-offs is used as seeding ranking for the EURO 2016 finals draw. Host France and reigning European champion Spain (when qualified) are always seeded in pot 1:

    33,599 France -
    37,082 Spain Q1
    41,476 Germany Q1
    35,903 England Q1
    35,138 Portugal Q1
    34,919 Netherlands q1 (grp A)
    --
    34,382 Belgium Q1
    34,324 Italy Q1
    31,325 Russia Q2
    31,134 Switzerland Q2
    30,867 Ukraine q2 (grp C)
    30,602 Croatia Q2
    --
    30,346 Bosnia-Herzegovina q3 (grp B)
    30,072 Austria Q1
    29,423 Czech Republic Q2
    28,988 Sweden q4 (grp G)
    28,818 Romania Q1
    28,391 Slovakia Q2
    --
    28,306 Poland Q2
    27,562 Hungary Qq (grp F)
    26,208 Iceland Q1
    24,521 Wales Q2
    21,701 Northern Ireland Q2
    21,041 Albania Q2

    ============================
    nrs 3 to play-offs (seeds 1-4 to qualify):
    34,919 Netherlands q1 (grp A)
    30,867 Ukraine q2 (grp C)
    30,346 Bosnia-Herzegovina q3 (grp B)
    28,988 Sweden q4 (grp G)

    27,140 Denmark q5 (grp I)
    26,419 Norway q6 (grp H)
    26,241 Slovenia q7 (grp E)
    23,159 Scotland q8 (grp D)
    ============================

    rest:
    26,274 Greece
    25,773 Turkey
    25,662 Republic of Ireland
    25,422 Israel
    23,411 Montenegro
    22,727 Serbia
    21,581 Finland
    20,786 Bulgaria
    20,051 Armenia
    19,449 Estonia
    18,898 Lithuania
    18,246 Belarus
    17,731 Latvia
    17,726 Georgia
    16,981 Azerbaijan
    16,641 Moldova
    15,658 Cyprus
    15,121 FYR Macedonia
    13,900 Luxembourg
    12,861 Kazakhstan
    12,785 Liechtenstein
    12,721 Faroe Islands
    11,330 Malta
    8,580 Andorra
    8,250 San Marino
    7,700 Gibraltar

    Elo still predicts a Dutch escape via the play-offs (I don't see them manage two wins, not with this very bad shape of the whole team).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ed, results in play-offs for EURO 2016 will not count for the seedings at the final tournament.

      Delete
    2. http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/03/92/81/2039281_DOWNLOAD.pdf

      Article B.1.2.b on page 49.

      Delete
    3. thanks for the clarification!

      Delete
    4. Could you please calculate chances for Ukraine to be the best 3rd placed in case of win vs Macedonia and depending on result vs Spain?

      Delete
    5. Nogomet, thanks. I wasn't sure of this fact. I knew I had read it somewhere but couldn't reproduce the source. That's why I followed the protocol used for EURO 2012. UEFA has learned from that and improved the regulations on this point.

      Delete
    6. @Denis

      78.05%, 85.46%, 99.74%

      Delete
  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  12. If Netherlands don't qualify, it will be very close between Belgium and Italy for the 6th place.I'd probably go for Belgium on goals for/against looking at the fixtures and Italy's lack of goals so far.

    ReplyDelete
  13. If the Netherlands qualify, they have to qualify scoring 6 out of 6 (supposing Belgium beats Israel and Andorra).

    ReplyDelete
  14. Northern ireland will definately be a 4th seed ? Does that mean they play the group seed in their first match eg if they are in group B so team B4 they will play the seeds first as happens in group A or is that exclusive to group A because the hosts always start the tournament ?

    ReplyDelete
  15. Northern Ireland will definitely be in pot 4 for the finals draw, but their position in the group (eg B2, B3 or B4) will be drawn in December. And that position determines the order of opponents for your team as the match schedule will be:
    B1-B2 and B3-B4 on group-MD1,
    B1-B3 and B2-B4 on group-MD2 and finally
    B1-B4 and B2-B3 on group-MD3.
    Only the 6 top seeds will always have position 1 in their group.

    ReplyDelete