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Friday, July 31, 2015

2018 FWCQ draw: Europe's winners and losers

I was curious to see the impact of the draw on teams' qualification chances.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

So I ran 10000 simulations doing first the draw, then adding the fixtures and another 10000 simulations with the actual groups and fixtures.


Teams that had a good draw:

14.71% - Poland (33.53% after the draw - 20.82% before the draw)
13.02% - Ukraine
11.72% - Republic of Ireland
10.05% - Switzerland
9.65% - Italy
9.51% - Serbia
9.07% - Turkey
8.92% - Belgium
7.30% - Austria
7.21% - Slovakia

Teams that were not quite as lucky:

-22.32% - Iceland
-20.00% - Sweden
-17.60% - Wales
-14.09% - France
-13.77% - Croatia
-8.32% - Northern Ireland
-6.16% - Netherlands
-4.07% - Bulgaria
-3.74% - Belarus
-3.54% - Czech Republic

Team - Before the draw - After the draw


Germany 94.97% 98.12%
Spain 85.31% 85.13%
Belgium 72.87% 81.79%
Netherlands 85.91% 79.75%
England 77.28% 79.47%
Portugal 72.78% 78.82%
Italy 53.59% 63.24%
France 73.34% 59.25%
Croatia 67.43% 53.66%
Switzerland 39.47% 49.52%
Denmark 40.14% 47.32%
Ukraine 33.54% 46.56%
Romania 39.72% 43.28%
Austria 31.16% 38.46%
Poland 20.82% 35.53%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 36.85% 34.30%
Slovakia 25.13% 32.34%
Republic of Ireland 19.97% 31.69%
Czech Republic 35.12% 31.58%
Serbia 22.01% 31.52%
Wales 45.07% 27.47%
Sweden 46.90% 26.90%
Scotland 26.98% 25.20%
Turkey 14.69% 23.76%
Iceland 40.64% 18.32%
Hungary 13.31% 16.76%
Greece 18.01% 14.72%
Slovenia 10.04% 8.69%
Montenegro 4.80% 6.43%
Israel 5.28% 4.70%
Finland 3.19% 4.08%
Norway 7.18% 4.04%
Armenia 1.76% 3.43%
Albania 5.11% 3.40%
Bulgaria 6.29% 2.22%
Georgia 0.79% 1.80%
Estonia 2.44% 1.68%
Belarus 4.88% 1.14%
Northern Ireland 9.34% 1.02%
Latvia 0.87% 0.83%
Cyprus 0.10% 0.61%
Moldova 0.52% 0.54%
FYR Macedonia 0.62% 0.33%
Lithuania 0.40% 0.25%
Kazakhstan 0.12% 0.22%
Azerbaijan 3.08% 0.12%
Faroe Islands 0.12% 0.01%
Malta 0.04% 0.00%
Luxembourg 0.02% 0.00%
Andorra 0.00% 0.00%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00%
San Marino 0.00% 0.00%

4 comments:

  1. Thank you so much for this simulation!

    If we sum the probabilities by group, the result are

    group before after difference
    1 215.2% 168.1% -47.1%
    2 121.8% 139.4% 17.6%
    3 157.8% 141.5% -16.3%
    4 113.8% 129.9% 16.1%
    5 104.0% 135.2% 31.3%
    6 137.0% 146.2% 9.1%
    7 150.3% 154.5% 4.2%
    8 138.7% 135.7% -3.1%
    9 161.4% 149.6% -11.9%

    Group 1 is the group of death without a question...

    ReplyDelete
  2. why did the chances of Wales decrease? They were very lucky to get None of the european Top-16-Teams...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's not important what you get, but what you got compared to what you could get just before the draw...

      These are the teams Wales could draw with the ELO-ratings as of today:
      Slovakia (26)
      Austria (29) <- in their pot (7th ranked team out of 9)
      Italy (14)
      Switzerland (21)
      Czechia (27)
      France (9)
      Iceland (45)
      Denmark (22)
      Bosnia and Herzegovina (35)

      Ukraine (18)
      Scotland (35)
      Poland (33)
      Hungary (48)
      Sweden (19)
      Albania (63)
      Northern Ireland (77)
      Serbia (37) <- in their pot (5th ranked team out of 9)
      Greece (52)

      Turkey (39)
      Slovenia (56)
      Israel (58)
      Ireland (37) <- in their pot (1st ranked team out of 9)
      Norway (60)
      Bulgaria (57)
      Faroe Islands (149)
      Montenegro (65)
      Estonia (94)

      Cyprus (113)
      Latvia (96)
      Armenia (80)
      Finland (70)
      Belarus (71)
      Macedonia (99)
      Azerbaijan (108)
      Lithuania (107)
      Moldova (117) <- in their pot (9th ranked team out of 9)

      Kazakhstan (129)
      Luxembourg (161)
      Liechtenstein (163)
      Georgia (101) <- in their pot (1st ranked team out of 9)
      Malta (157)
      San Marino (203)
      Andorra (193)

      So they drew relatively hard opponents in the 4th and 6th pot. In fact, they drew teams which are "tougher" than Wales, while they could have drawn easy opponents. And since Austria is also better, that makes them more often team 4 and not qualified...

      A group consisting of Wales, Iceland, Albania, Faroe Islands, Moldova and Andorra would have given them a lot of extra pct's...

      Delete