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Friday, October 30, 2015

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

Only two matches left - both friendlies as far as FIFA are concerned. They are actually CHAN qualifiers.



This is how the points and ranks could change for these 4 teams:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank


Côte d'Ivoire 863 890 26 22
Ghana 793 817 30 28
Congo 593 625 52 47
Cameroon 572 597 60 51

In the table below I've used the minimum points for these teams.

Best movers:

39 - Chad
38 - Cyprus
36 - São Tomé e Príncipe

Worst movers:

-44 - Sudan
-36 - Armenia
-30 - Dominican Republic

Best movers in the top 50:

19 - Turkey
13 - Serbia and Paraguay
12 - Republic of Ireland

Worst movers in the top 50:

-18 - Slovenia
-14 - Israel
-12 - Norway

Seven teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Belgium (1 - 2 in June 2015)
Chile (5 - 6 in April 1998)
Austria (10 - 11 in October 2015)
St. Kitts and Nevis (101 - 106 in November 2012)
Aruba (112 - 115 in October 2015)
Belize (117 - 118 in July 2015)
South Sudan (134 - 144 in October 2015)

Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:

Honduras (95 - 95 in November 1998)
Djibouti (207 - 207 in July 2015)

Nine teams will drop to new lows:

Lithuania (123 - 119 in November 2012)
Kuwait (133 - 128 in February 2015)
Moldova (154 - 149 in July 1994)
New Zealand (159 - 156 in September 2007)
Indonesia (174 - 171 in October 2015)
Suriname (184 - 181 in October 2015)
Nepal (192 - 190 in October 2015)
Sri Lanka (194 - 193 in February 2013)
Solomon Islands (199 - 197 in October 2015)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Liberia (86 - 83 in November 2002) - 13 years
Swaziland (130 - 123 in July 2008) - 7 years and 4 months
Kyrgyzstan (124 - 124 in September 2008) - 7 years and 2 months
Turkey (18 - 12 in June 2009) - 6 years and 5 months
Northern Ireland (at least 30 - 30 in October 2009) - 6 years and 1 month
Uganda (68 - 63 in October 2010) - 5 years and 1 month

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

FYR Macedonia (139 - 147 in May 1994) - 21 years and 6 months
Honduras (95 - 95 in November 1998) - 17 years
Netherlands (16 - 21 in June 2000) - 15 years and 5 months
New Caledonia (180 - 188 in May 2006) - 9 years and 6 months
Mozambique (125 - 126 in April 2007) - 8 years and 7 months
Burkina Faso (93 - 111 in June 2008) - 7 years and 5 months
Slovenia (64 - 73 in October 2008) - 7 years and 1 month
Armenia (127 - 131 in June 2009) - 6 years and 5 months
Denmark (35 - 36 in May 2010) - 5 years and 6 months
Puerto Rico (170 - 170 in September 2010) - 5 years and 2 months
Tahiti (191 - 194 in September 2010) - 5 years and 2 months

Chile will be ranked above Brazil for the first time ever.
Northern Ireland will be ranked above USA for the first time ever.
Cape Verde Islands will be ranked above Denmark and USA for the first time ever.
Hungary will be ranked above Denmark for the first time ever.
Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan will be ranked above Kuwait for the first time ever.
Kazakhstan will be ranked above FYR Macedonia for the first time ever.
Guam will be ranked above New Zealand for the first time ever.
Timor-Leste will be ranked above India for the first time ever.

November 2015 rank - Team - November 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1440 2 53
2 Germany 1388 0 -13
3 Argentina 1383 -2 -36
4 Portugal 1364 0 129
5 Chile 1288 4 111
6 Spain 1287 0 64
7 Colombia 1233 -2 5
8 Brazil 1208 -1 4
9 England 1179 1 18
10 Austria 1130 1 30
11 Switzerland 1073 1 29
12 Uruguay 1051 8 132
13 Italy 1040 4 78
14 Romania 1039 -1 -3
15 Wales 1032 -7 -163
16 Netherlands 976 -2 -28
17 Czech Republic 974 -2 -9
18 Turkey 941 19 224
19 Croatia 924 -3 -41
20 Bosnia-Herzegovina 923 10 136
21 Ecuador 921 10 156
22 Russia 885 4 40
23 France 881 -1 -18
23 Mexico 881 4 39
25 Algeria 872 -6 -55
26 Côte d'Ivoire 863 -5 -53
27 Slovakia 857 -9 -79
28 Ukraine 806 -4 -68
29 Northern Ireland 797 6 73
30 Ghana 793 -5 -56
31 Iceland 792 -8 -90
32 Cape Verde Islands 762 9 61
33 Hungary 759 0 18
33 USA 759 -4 -48
35 Denmark 743 -7 -92
36 Albania 723 -4 -32
37 Greece 718 7 42
38 Poland 712 5 32
39 Senegal 678 -1 -35
40 Costa Rica 671 2 -20
41 Tunisia 668 -5 -54
42 Republic of Ireland 659 12 72
43 Iran 651 -4 -52
44 Scotland 649 -4 -53
45 Sweden 647 0 -25
46 Norway 637 -12 -102
47 Paraguay 610 14 58
48 Korea Republic 606 5 16
49 Serbia 605 14 67
50 Japan 603 5 21
51 Congo 593 -2 -43
52 Guinea 589 3 7
53 Trinidad and Tobago 588 6 24
54 Congo DR 587 6 24
55 Finland 586 9 52
56 Egypt 583 -5 -37
56 Peru 583 -6 -40
58 Nigeria 582 -6 -18
59 Australia 573 -1 6
60 Cameroon 572 -12 -68
61 Israel 559 -14 -100
61 Jamaica 559 -4 -17
63 Mali 552 -1 6
64 Slovenia 547 -18 -115
65 Panama 515 0 -14
66 Bulgaria 497 12 83
67 United Arab Emirates 495 3 4
68 Uganda 491 7 36
69 Equatorial Guinea 487 -2 -23
70 Belarus 479 28 129
71 Uzbekistan 477 3 13
71 Zambia 477 0 -10
73 Gabon 470 -8 -59
73 Haiti 470 4 52
75 South Africa 461 -2 -4
76 Cyprus 444 38 144
77 Bolivia 442 -10 -68
78 Montenegro 426 -6 -44
79 Morocco 422 1 15
80 Antigua and Barbuda 417 3 17
80 Saudi Arabia 417 8 33
82 Jordan 411 17 63
83 Venezuela 408 -14 -93
84 China PR 403 -3 -2
85 Qatar 397 7 32
86 Liberia 394 9 34
87 Iraq 392 -2 -4
88 Togo 386 -9 -25
89 Faroe Islands 385 -4 -11
90 Estonia 370 -3 -18
91 Guatemala 367 -9 -34
92 Oman 365 10 27
93 Burkina Faso 363 -17 -64
94 El Salvador 361 0 -2
95 Honduras 359 -6 -20
96 Rwanda 356 -3 -8
97 Malawi 351 4 12
98 Angola 344 -1 -9
99 Latvia 342 4 7
100 Nicaragua 341 -5 -19
101 St. Kitts and Nevis 340 11 37
102 Canada 335 2 2
103 Benin 333 -3 -8
104 Mauritania 328 -15 -51
105 Botswana 327 6 22
105 Niger 327 15 40
107 Burundi 321 6 19
108 Cuba 312 9 18
109 Zimbabwe 305 0 -8
110 Central African Republic 302 16 31
111 Georgia 301 -1 -7
112 Aruba 299 3 0
113 Libya 297 -8 -31
114 Ethiopia 294 -6 -21
115 Azerbaijan 293 -10 -35
115 Bahrain 293 8 10
117 Belize 292 1 0
118 Madagascar 290 9 28
118 Namibia 290 7 16
120 Korea DPR 288 9 36
121 Sierra Leone 281 0 -5
121 Turkmenistan 281 34 109
123 Lithuania 279 -7 -19
124 Kyrgyzstan 277 22 82
125 Kenya 274 6 29
125 Mozambique 274 -18 -53
127 Armenia 271 -36 -106
128 Sudan 267 -44 -132
129 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 262 -7 -22
130 Swaziland 258 5 34
131 Kazakhstan 256 11 57
132 Syria 254 -9 -29
133 Kuwait 252 -5 -8
134 South Sudan 246 10 48
135 Tanzania 245 1 27
136 Chad 240 39 140
137 Philippines 236 -3 -2
138 Palestine 233 -8 -13
139 FYR Macedonia 230 -7 -9
140 Lebanon 228 0 27
141 Guinea-Bissau 216 6 23
142 Barbados 206 12 31
143 St. Lucia 204 -4 -4
144 Thailand 202 1 6
145 Hong Kong 199 8 19
146 Luxembourg 197 -4 -2
147 Lesotho 193 -7 -8
147 Vietnam 193 2 6
149 Dominican Republic 187 -30 -103
150 Curaçao 182 2 1
151 Bermuda 181 -13 -28
152 Guyana 179 -15 -31
152 Singapore 179 5 15
154 Moldova 177 -22 -62
155 Guam 170 -5 -13
156 Afghanistan 168 -6 -15
157 São Tomé e Príncipe 165 36 117
158 Malta 164 -1 0
159 New Zealand 163 -11 -25
160 Tajikistan 159 0 3
161 Myanmar 157 2 10
162 Timor-Leste 155 8 37
163 Liechtenstein 154 -7 -16
164 Samoa 152 -2 0
165 American Samoa 144 -1 0
166 Maldives 141 10 45
167 Grenada 137 -8 -22
168 Gambia 135 -7 -19
169 Cook Islands 132 -3 0
170 Puerto Rico 129 -5 -5
171 Malaysia 127 0 16
172 India 122 -5 -6
173 Mauritius 117 -5 -6
174 Indonesia 108 -3 -3
175 Dominica 104 -1 2
176 Laos 90 3 5
177 Comoros 89 16 41
178 US Virgin Islands 88 0 0
179 Yemen 81 1 -1
180 Bangladesh 80 2 3
180 Bhutan 80 -7 -26
180 New Caledonia 80 -11 -40
183 Cambodia 78 3 12
184 Suriname 77 -3 -2
185 Pakistan 76 -8 -13
186 Brunei Darussalam 74 1 13
187 Chinese Taipei 71 -4 2
188 Montserrat 67 -4 0
189 Fiji 60 0 0
189 Seychelles 60 -5 -7
191 Tahiti 56 -3 -4
192 Nepal 51 -2 0
193 Cayman Islands 49 -2 0
194 Sri Lanka 45 -3 -4
195 Macau 44 -2 -4
196 San Marino 35 0 0
197 Turks and Caicos Islands 33 0 0
198 British Virgin Islands 27 1 0
199 Solomon Islands 26 -2 -7
200 Tonga 17 0 0
201 Vanuatu 13 0 0
202 Eritrea 8 0 0
203 Mongolia 6 0 0
203 Somalia 6 0 0
205 Andorra 5 0 0
206 Papua New Guinea 4 0 0
207 Anguilla 0 1 0
207 Bahamas 0 1 0
207 Djibouti 0 -1 -4
 

6 comments:

  1. If FIFA considers CHAN qualifiers as friendlies, I think this is a good sign that UEFA Nations League matches will also be considered as friendlies by FIFA.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I"ve added the september-november games in my database, but fail to calculate the correct scores for some countries. Haven't checked them all in details, but how Haiti gets their current score? Somehow i'm missing 24 points (2,04 after dividing by 12 (# games) and the 85% continent factor). After checking FIFA's website, i see they give the same points to the games as i do... Other teams i fail to calculate correct are Ghana
    USA, Korea Republic, Peru, Panama, United Arab Emirates, El Salvador,
    Malawi, Canada, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Palestine, Lebanon, Myanmar and Bangladesh (i haven't checked them all, but they seem to be correct at first view). Someone who could help me?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For CONCACAF teams who played a Gold Cup match on 7 and 8 July 2015, FIFA used 9 July 2015 instead of 4 June 2015 rankings to calculate the points. Maybe this is the reason for miscalculations.

      Delete
  3. Jeroen, here's the detailed calculation for Haiti for november 2015:

    cycle date opponent type pts rankdat pos wght stat conf conf matchpts
    4 11-11-2011 ATG FIFA World Cup 2014 Q 0 okt-11 90 1.10 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
    4 15-11-2011 ATG FIFA World Cup 2014 Q 3 okt-11 90 1.10 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 726.000
    4 9-9-2012 BER Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 Q 3 sep-12 102 0.98 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 646.800
    4 11-9-2012 PUR Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 Q 3 sep-12 137 0.63 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 415.800
    3 14-11-2012 GUY Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 Q 3 nov-12 116 0.84 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 554.400
    3 18-11-2012 GRN Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 Q 3 nov-12 149 0.51 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 336.600
    3 7-12-2012 TRI Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 1 nov-12 79 1.21 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 266.200
    3 9-12-2012 DOM Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 3 nov-12 92 1.08 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 712.800
    3 11-12-2012 ATG Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 3 nov-12 121 0.79 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 521.400
    3 14-12-2012 CUB Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 0 nov-12 141 0.59 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
    3 19-1-2013 CHI Friendly 2013 0 jan-13 30 1.70 1 CONMEBOL 0.940 0.000
    3 6-2-2013 BOL Friendly 2013 0 jan-13 41 1.59 1 CONMEBOL 0.940 0.000
    3 20-3-2013 OMA Friendly 2013 0 mrt-13 105 0.95 1 AFC 0.870 0.000
    3 24-3-2013 DOM Friendly 2013 0 mrt-13 96 1.04 1 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
    3 8-6-2013 ESP Friendly 2013 0 jun-13 1 2.00 1 UEFA 0.940 0.000
    3 11-6-2013 ITA Friendly 2013 1 jun-13 8 1.92 1 UEFA 0.940 180.480
    3 8-7-2013 HON CONCACAF Gold Cup 2013 0 jul-13 55 1.45 3 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
    3 12-7-2013 TRI CONCACAF Gold Cup 2013 3 jul-13 87 1.13 3 CONCACAF 0.880 894.960
    3 15-7-2013 SLV CONCACAF Gold Cup 2013 0 jul-13 94 1.06 3 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
    3 6-9-2013 KOR Friendly 2013 0 aug-13 56 1.44 1 AFC 0.870 0.000
    2 9-9-2014 CHI Friendly 2014 0 aug-14 12 1.88 1 CONMEBOL 0.925 0.000
    2 10-10-2014 BRB Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 Q 3 sep-14 161 0.50 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 318.750
    2 12-10-2014 SKN Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 Q 1 sep-14 117 0.83 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 176.375
    1 12-11-2014 ATG Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 1 okt-14 70 1.30 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 276.250
    1 16-11-2014 JAM Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 0 okt-14 113 0.87 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 0.000
    1 18-11-2014 CUB Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 3 okt-14 112 0.88 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 561.000
    1 27-3-2015 CHN Friendly 2015 1 mrt-15 83 1.17 1 AFC 0.850 99.450
    1 7-7-2015 PAN CONCACAF Gold Cup 2015 1 jul-15 62 1.38 3 CONCACAF 0.850 351.900
    1 10-7-2015 USA CONCACAF Gold Cup 2015 0 jul-15 34 1.66 3 CONCACAF 0.850 0.000
    1 13-7-2015 HON CONCACAF Gold Cup 2015 3 jul-15 80 1.20 3 CONCACAF 0.850 918.000
    1 18-7-2015 JAM CONCACAF Gold Cup 2015 0 jul-15 76 1.24 3 CONCACAF 0.850 0.000
    1 4-9-2015 GRN FIFA World Cup 2018 Q 3 sep-15 158 0.50 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 318.750
    1 8-9-2015 GRN FIFA World Cup 2018 Q 3 sep-15 158 0.50 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 318.750

    ranking date: 5-11-2015

    cycle pts MP MP_rank avg_pts weight w_avg
    1 2844.100 10 10 284.41 1 284.41
    2 495.125 3 5 99.03 0.5 49.51
    3 3466.840 16 16 216.68 0.3 65.00
    4 1788.600 4 5 357.72 0.2 71.54
    FIFA HAI 470.47

    Sorry for the lousy format !

    ReplyDelete
  4. tnx Ed & Nogomet. Found some errors right now (indeed, Haiti was that problem, weird FIFA publishes other results on their site than used in the calculation), but some others will require more work to figure out. We'll look harder ;).

    ReplyDelete