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Friday, October 23, 2015

EURO 2016 play-off sims and comparison with previous sims

From an Elo rating point of view, 3 of the 4 EURO 2016 play-offs are extremely balanced.

Sweden (1723) vs. Denmark (1723)
Norway (1638) vs. Hungary (1632)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1728) vs. Republic of Ireland (1720)
Ukraine (1788) vs. Slovenia (1598)


As you'd expect, the chances of qualifying are around 50% for most of the teams.

72.36% - Ukraine
50.63% - Norway
50.51% - Denmark
50.44% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
49.56% - Republic of Ireland
49.49% - Sweden
49.37% - Hungary
27.64% - Slovenia

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Of course, the Elo rating knows nothing about Slovenia 75% record in play-offs - including the EURO 2000 play-off vs. Ukraine. (I missed the EURO 2004 elimination at the hand of Croatia.)

I ran the first EURO 2016 sims in April 2015 and the last in September 2015.

Using the qualification chances above for the teams in the play-offs and 100% for those already qualified, let's look at the differences.

Most improved from April:


Turkey 8.32 100 91.68
Albania 39.82 100 60.18
Bosnia-Herzegovina 16.78 50.44 33.66
Northern Ireland 72.79 100 27.21
Poland 76.55 100 23.45
Iceland 77.41 100 22.59
Russia 81.55 100 18.45
Wales 82.8 100 17.2
Switzerland 86.14 100 13.86
Republic of Ireland 36.94 49.56 12.62
 
Most deteriorated from April:


Netherlands 91.22 0 -91.22
Scotland 48.96 0 -48.96
Israel 45.79 0 -45.79
Sweden 87.34 49.49 -37.85
Denmark 85.49 50.51 -34.98
Slovenia 60.1 27.64 -32.46
Serbia 16.57 0 -16.57
Finland 11.07 0 -11.07
Greece 8.34 0 -8.34
Bulgaria 7.65 0 -7.65
 
Most improved from September:


Turkey 25.7 100 74.3
Bosnia-Herzegovina 20.41 50.44 30.03
Albania 73.69 100 26.31
Croatia 85.86 100 14.14
Northern Ireland 90.27 100 9.73
Poland 90.29 100 9.71
Russia 90.54 100 9.46
Republic of Ireland 44.76 49.56 4.8
Romania 98.09 100 1.91
Switzerland 98.68 100 1.32

Most deteriorated from September:


Netherlands 47.65 0 -47.65
Denmark 75.07 50.51 -24.56
Norway 73.21 50.63 -22.58
Israel 21.67 0 -21.67
Hungary 67.41 49.37 -18.04
Sweden 66.6 49.49 -17.11
Scotland 11.32 0 -11.32
Ukraine 81.5 72.36 -9.14
Slovenia 35.88 27.64 -8.24
Montenegro 2.52 0 -2.52

7 comments:

  1. Slovenia doesn't have a 100% record in play-offs. It lost the Euro 2004 play-off to Croatia.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is a rematch of Euro 2000 play-off qualifiers though and Slovenia won the two legs. Massive underdogs this time.

      Delete
  2. bosnia will do it. 3rd time lucky

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi, do the Euro 2016 play-off matches (eg. Bosnia - Rep Ireland) count towards the seedings for Euro 2020 qualifying draw?

    So could a team that finished 3rd in their group, then goes on to win the home and away play-off matches, actually gain more points than a team that finished ahead of them in their group??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seedings for EURO 2020 qualifying draw will be determined based on the results of the 2018-19 Nations league, not by coefficients. However, the seedings for the Nations league will be determined by coefficients, and the play-offs do count, so yes, a team can benefit from participating in the play-offs.

      Delete