So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the (28?) November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, following earlier simulation posts, what the seeding pots will likely look like.
NOTE 1: This ranking doesn't include matches from the 2026 World Cup qualifying groups that are still to be determined, notably the AFC fourth round, and it doesn't include matches from the African Nations Championship for which the fixtures still haven't been released.
NOTE 2: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted (23?) October 2025 ranking. That ranking follows on from predicted (18?) September and 10 July 2025 rankings.
Pos Country Points +/- +/-
1 Argentina 1895.54 0 0.00
2 Spain 1889.68 0 8.92
3 France 1882.31 0 7.16
4 England 1834.25 0 9.85
5 Portugal 1797.98 0 6.86
6 Brazil 1786.60 0 0.00
7 Netherlands 1780.38 0 8.21
8 Belgium 1755.36 0 2.93
9 Germany 1746.95 0 10.09
10 Croatia 1729.07 0 6.43
11 Italy 1727.11 0 9.95
12 Mexico 1710.68 0 0.00
13 Morocco 1708.00 0 0.00
14 United States 1698.80 0 0.00
15 Colombia 1692.10 0 0.00
16 Uruguay 1686.15 0 0.00
17 Switzerland 1679.98 0 13.57
18 Denmark 1665.38 0 12.31
19 Senegal 1651.51 0 0.00
20 Japan 1635.91 0 0.00
21 Iran 1631.48 0 0.00
22 Austria 1622.00 0 9.72
23 Panama 1587.99 3 11.44
24 South Korea 1578.62 0 0.00
25 Australia 1578.57 0 0.00
26 Canada 1578.28 0 0.00
27 Ecuador 1575.33 0 0.00
28 Türkiye 1570.19 0 0.01
29 Ukraine 1568.89 0 1.63
30 Sweden 1557.55 0 0.46
31 Egypt 1538.01 0 0.00
32 Wales 1535.08 3 10.91
33 Norway 1533.21 -1 -3.99
34 Serbia 1530.36 -1 -2.12
35 Algeria 1524.70 0 0.00
36 Hungary 1519.53 3 15.72
37 Russia 1514.54 0 0.00
38 Costa Rica 1512.95 4 16.22
39 Poland 1505.16 -2 -3.91
40 Côte d'Ivoire 1504.01 0 0.00
41 Czechia 1499.50 0 1.75
42 Nigeria 1499.36 0 0.00
43 Tunisia 1495.63 0 0.00
44 Greece 1491.75 1 6.29
45 Cameroon 1491.35 0 0.00
46 Slovakia 1484.26 0 -0.14
47 Peru 1481.51 0 0.00
48 Mali 1479.84 0 0.00
49 Romania 1478.68 2 11.15
50 Paraguay 1476.31 0 0.00
51 Scotland 1471.91 -3 -8.29
52 Venezuela 1465.02 0 0.00
53 South Africa 1459.86 0 0.00
54 Qatar 1459.85 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1449.12 0 0.00
56 Slovenia 1447.46 -1 -2.99
57 Saudi Arabia 1432.61 0 0.00
58 Chile 1425.99 0 0.00
59 Democratic Republic of Congo 1424.95 0 0.00
60 Iraq 1417.04 0 0.00
61 Jamaica 1408.68 2 17.63
62 Ireland 1398.13 -1 -14.85
63 Burkina Faso 1390.16 0 0.00
64 Jordan 1387.75 0 0.00
65 North Macedonia 1385.97 -3 -9.44
66 United Arab Emirates 1379.86 0 0.00
67 Georgia 1372.90 1 6.95
68 Albania 1370.70 -1 0.34
69 Finland 1366.51 1 6.11
70 Honduras 1360.81 -1 -2.82
71 Cape Verde Islands 1354.55 0 0.00
72 Northern Ireland 1351.53 2 9.67
73 Ghana 1344.50 0 0.00
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1337.13 -2 -16.32
75 Iceland 1332.97 0 0.38
76 Israel 1330.27 0 5.69
77 Montenegro 1321.58 0 -1.20
78 Gabon 1317.66 0 0.00
79 Oman 1312.83 0 0.00
80 El Salvador 1312.35 0 0.49
81 Bolivia 1307.24 0 0.00
82 Guinea 1295.34 0 0.00
83 Angola 1293.88 0 0.00
84 New Zealand 1286.05 0 0.00
85 Zambia 1280.34 0 0.00
86 Syria 1277.79 0 3.64
87 Uganda 1273.53 0 0.00
88 Bahrain 1266.96 0 0.00
89 Equatorial Guinea 1265.88 0 0.00
90 Benin 1259.07 0 0.00
91 Curaçao 1251.46 1 -2.85
91 Mozambique 1251.30 0 0.00
93 China 1249.06 0 0.00
94 Bulgaria 1247.19 -4 -15.88
95 Haiti 1244.87 0 2.18
96 Thailand 1239.87 1 4.51
97 Palestine 1236.41 0 0.00
98 Tanzania 1221.52 0 0.00
99 Tajikistan 1221.40 2 4.77
100 Namibia 1215.11 0 0.00
101 Kosovo 1212.99 -2 -11.04
102 Luxembourg 1211.99 -4 -19.62
103 Trinidad and Tobago 1211.29 0 -1.14
104 Kyrgyzstan 1208.57 0 0.00
105 Guatemala 1203.36 1 4.79
106 Belarus 1201.95 -3 -10.31
107 Comoros 1192.01 0 0.00
108 Lebanon 1190.76 1 5.95
109 Vietnam 1189.45 1 5.88
110 Kenya 1187.22 0 0.00
111 Mauritania 1176.56 0 0.00
112 Armenia 1173.16 -1 -7.73
113 Madagascar 1172.71 0 0.00
114 Sudan 1162.78 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1156.43 7 7.12
116 Indonesia 1154.55 0 0.00
117 Libya 1154.15 0 0.00
118 Kazakhstan 1153.52 -3 -2.30
119 Togo 1152.12 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Zimbabwe 1150.03 0 0.00
122 Gambia 1149.86 0 0.00
123 Sierra Leone 1148.95 0 0.00
124 India 1140.09 1 6.89
125 Guinea-Bissau 1132.92 0 0.00
126 Estonia 1131.70 -2 -4.63
127 Niger 1126.54 0 0.00
128 Congo 1123.11 0 0.00
129 Azerbaijan 1120.98 -2 -9.16
130 Turkmenistan 1115.34 2 8.87
131 Cyprus 1110.08 -1 -3.00
132 Malawi 1107.04 0 0.00
133 Rwanda 1106.47 0 0.00
134 Kuwait 1098.87 0 0.00
135 Latvia 1092.61 0 -4.03
136 Philippines 1090.89 3 9.45
137 Central African Republic 1087.58 0 0.00
138 Faroe Islands 1080.64 0 -1.97
139 Nicaragua 1078.33 -3 -15.58
140 Dominican Republic 1076.78 0 0.00
141 Hong Kong 1073.07 3 10.95
142 Botswana 1071.59 0 0.00
143 Lithuania 1065.98 0 -1.53
144 Burundi 1059.72 0 0.00
145 Surinam 1058.58 -4 -16.73
146 Yemen 1048.83 3 8.70
147 Liberia 1048.14 0 0.00
148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
149 Fiji 1043.44 0 0.00
150 New Caledonia 1039.55 0 0.00
151 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 1035.92 0 0.00
153 Ethiopia 1030.64 0 0.00
154 Puerto Rico 1020.55 0 0.00
155 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
156 Afghanistan 1017.39 0 -0.65
157 Lesotho 1014.41 0 0.00
158 Moldova 1000.56 0 -7.23
159 Eswatini 998.02 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Myanmar 991.38 1 0.65
163 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
164 Singapore 986.35 -4 -10.95
165 Cuba 980.33 0 0.00
166 Grenada 979.91 0 0.00
167 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
168 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 967.19 0 0.00
169 Bermuda 962.80 -2 -13.64
170 Malta 956.89 0 -7.25
171 South Sudan 953.77 0 0.00
172 Maldives 942.21 0 -9.45
173 Taiwan 941.89 0 -8.87
174 Andorra 935.69 0 -5.66
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
178 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
179 Mauritius 902.98 0 0.00
180 Nepal 902.42 -2 -7.12
180 Chad 902.16 0 0.00
182 Dominica 901.33 0 0.00
183 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
184 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
185 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
186 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
187 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
188 Bangladesh 874.32 -3 -6.89
189 Laos 870.70 -1 -5.88
190 Bhutan 867.86 -1 -8.70
191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
193 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
195 Djibouti 848.01 0 0.00
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.22 0 0.00
197 Sri Lanka 836.56 0 -4.51
198 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
199 Timor Leste 835.50 -1 -4.77
200 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
201 Gibraltar 822.51 -1 -5.00
202 Somalia 818.84 0 0.00
203 Pakistan 809.10 0 -3.64
204 Bahamas 807.40 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.22 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 800.03 0 -2.10
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 766.83 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 759.54 0 0.00
211 San Marino 729.01 0 -1.35
2 Spain 1889.68 0 8.92
3 France 1882.31 0 7.16
4 England 1834.25 0 9.85
5 Portugal 1797.98 0 6.86
6 Brazil 1786.60 0 0.00
7 Netherlands 1780.38 0 8.21
8 Belgium 1755.36 0 2.93
9 Germany 1746.95 0 10.09
10 Croatia 1729.07 0 6.43
11 Italy 1727.11 0 9.95
12 Mexico 1710.68 0 0.00
13 Morocco 1708.00 0 0.00
14 United States 1698.80 0 0.00
15 Colombia 1692.10 0 0.00
16 Uruguay 1686.15 0 0.00
17 Switzerland 1679.98 0 13.57
18 Denmark 1665.38 0 12.31
19 Senegal 1651.51 0 0.00
20 Japan 1635.91 0 0.00
21 Iran 1631.48 0 0.00
22 Austria 1622.00 0 9.72
23 Panama 1587.99 3 11.44
24 South Korea 1578.62 0 0.00
25 Australia 1578.57 0 0.00
26 Canada 1578.28 0 0.00
27 Ecuador 1575.33 0 0.00
28 Türkiye 1570.19 0 0.01
29 Ukraine 1568.89 0 1.63
30 Sweden 1557.55 0 0.46
31 Egypt 1538.01 0 0.00
32 Wales 1535.08 3 10.91
33 Norway 1533.21 -1 -3.99
34 Serbia 1530.36 -1 -2.12
35 Algeria 1524.70 0 0.00
36 Hungary 1519.53 3 15.72
37 Russia 1514.54 0 0.00
38 Costa Rica 1512.95 4 16.22
39 Poland 1505.16 -2 -3.91
40 Côte d'Ivoire 1504.01 0 0.00
41 Czechia 1499.50 0 1.75
42 Nigeria 1499.36 0 0.00
43 Tunisia 1495.63 0 0.00
44 Greece 1491.75 1 6.29
45 Cameroon 1491.35 0 0.00
46 Slovakia 1484.26 0 -0.14
47 Peru 1481.51 0 0.00
48 Mali 1479.84 0 0.00
49 Romania 1478.68 2 11.15
50 Paraguay 1476.31 0 0.00
51 Scotland 1471.91 -3 -8.29
52 Venezuela 1465.02 0 0.00
53 South Africa 1459.86 0 0.00
54 Qatar 1459.85 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1449.12 0 0.00
56 Slovenia 1447.46 -1 -2.99
57 Saudi Arabia 1432.61 0 0.00
58 Chile 1425.99 0 0.00
59 Democratic Republic of Congo 1424.95 0 0.00
60 Iraq 1417.04 0 0.00
61 Jamaica 1408.68 2 17.63
62 Ireland 1398.13 -1 -14.85
63 Burkina Faso 1390.16 0 0.00
64 Jordan 1387.75 0 0.00
65 North Macedonia 1385.97 -3 -9.44
66 United Arab Emirates 1379.86 0 0.00
67 Georgia 1372.90 1 6.95
68 Albania 1370.70 -1 0.34
69 Finland 1366.51 1 6.11
70 Honduras 1360.81 -1 -2.82
71 Cape Verde Islands 1354.55 0 0.00
72 Northern Ireland 1351.53 2 9.67
73 Ghana 1344.50 0 0.00
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1337.13 -2 -16.32
75 Iceland 1332.97 0 0.38
76 Israel 1330.27 0 5.69
77 Montenegro 1321.58 0 -1.20
78 Gabon 1317.66 0 0.00
79 Oman 1312.83 0 0.00
80 El Salvador 1312.35 0 0.49
81 Bolivia 1307.24 0 0.00
82 Guinea 1295.34 0 0.00
83 Angola 1293.88 0 0.00
84 New Zealand 1286.05 0 0.00
85 Zambia 1280.34 0 0.00
86 Syria 1277.79 0 3.64
87 Uganda 1273.53 0 0.00
88 Bahrain 1266.96 0 0.00
89 Equatorial Guinea 1265.88 0 0.00
90 Benin 1259.07 0 0.00
91 Curaçao 1251.46 1 -2.85
91 Mozambique 1251.30 0 0.00
93 China 1249.06 0 0.00
94 Bulgaria 1247.19 -4 -15.88
95 Haiti 1244.87 0 2.18
96 Thailand 1239.87 1 4.51
97 Palestine 1236.41 0 0.00
98 Tanzania 1221.52 0 0.00
99 Tajikistan 1221.40 2 4.77
100 Namibia 1215.11 0 0.00
101 Kosovo 1212.99 -2 -11.04
102 Luxembourg 1211.99 -4 -19.62
103 Trinidad and Tobago 1211.29 0 -1.14
104 Kyrgyzstan 1208.57 0 0.00
105 Guatemala 1203.36 1 4.79
106 Belarus 1201.95 -3 -10.31
107 Comoros 1192.01 0 0.00
108 Lebanon 1190.76 1 5.95
109 Vietnam 1189.45 1 5.88
110 Kenya 1187.22 0 0.00
111 Mauritania 1176.56 0 0.00
112 Armenia 1173.16 -1 -7.73
113 Madagascar 1172.71 0 0.00
114 Sudan 1162.78 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1156.43 7 7.12
116 Indonesia 1154.55 0 0.00
117 Libya 1154.15 0 0.00
118 Kazakhstan 1153.52 -3 -2.30
119 Togo 1152.12 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Zimbabwe 1150.03 0 0.00
122 Gambia 1149.86 0 0.00
123 Sierra Leone 1148.95 0 0.00
124 India 1140.09 1 6.89
125 Guinea-Bissau 1132.92 0 0.00
126 Estonia 1131.70 -2 -4.63
127 Niger 1126.54 0 0.00
128 Congo 1123.11 0 0.00
129 Azerbaijan 1120.98 -2 -9.16
130 Turkmenistan 1115.34 2 8.87
131 Cyprus 1110.08 -1 -3.00
132 Malawi 1107.04 0 0.00
133 Rwanda 1106.47 0 0.00
134 Kuwait 1098.87 0 0.00
135 Latvia 1092.61 0 -4.03
136 Philippines 1090.89 3 9.45
137 Central African Republic 1087.58 0 0.00
138 Faroe Islands 1080.64 0 -1.97
139 Nicaragua 1078.33 -3 -15.58
140 Dominican Republic 1076.78 0 0.00
141 Hong Kong 1073.07 3 10.95
142 Botswana 1071.59 0 0.00
143 Lithuania 1065.98 0 -1.53
144 Burundi 1059.72 0 0.00
145 Surinam 1058.58 -4 -16.73
146 Yemen 1048.83 3 8.70
147 Liberia 1048.14 0 0.00
148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
149 Fiji 1043.44 0 0.00
150 New Caledonia 1039.55 0 0.00
151 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 1035.92 0 0.00
153 Ethiopia 1030.64 0 0.00
154 Puerto Rico 1020.55 0 0.00
155 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
156 Afghanistan 1017.39 0 -0.65
157 Lesotho 1014.41 0 0.00
158 Moldova 1000.56 0 -7.23
159 Eswatini 998.02 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Myanmar 991.38 1 0.65
163 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
164 Singapore 986.35 -4 -10.95
165 Cuba 980.33 0 0.00
166 Grenada 979.91 0 0.00
167 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
168 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 967.19 0 0.00
169 Bermuda 962.80 -2 -13.64
170 Malta 956.89 0 -7.25
171 South Sudan 953.77 0 0.00
172 Maldives 942.21 0 -9.45
173 Taiwan 941.89 0 -8.87
174 Andorra 935.69 0 -5.66
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
178 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
179 Mauritius 902.98 0 0.00
180 Nepal 902.42 -2 -7.12
180 Chad 902.16 0 0.00
182 Dominica 901.33 0 0.00
183 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
184 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
185 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
186 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
187 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
188 Bangladesh 874.32 -3 -6.89
189 Laos 870.70 -1 -5.88
190 Bhutan 867.86 -1 -8.70
191 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
192 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
193 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
195 Djibouti 848.01 0 0.00
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.22 0 0.00
197 Sri Lanka 836.56 0 -4.51
198 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
199 Timor Leste 835.50 -1 -4.77
200 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
201 Gibraltar 822.51 -1 -5.00
202 Somalia 818.84 0 0.00
203 Pakistan 809.10 0 -3.64
204 Bahamas 807.40 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.22 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 800.03 0 -2.10
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 766.83 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 759.54 0 0.00
211 San Marino 729.01 0 -1.35
From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:
1) United States (certain, hosts)
2) Mexico (certain, hosts)
3) Canada (certain, hosts)
4) Argentina (CONMEBOL #1)
5) Spain (UEFA Group E Winner)
6) France (UEFA Group D Winner)
7) England (UEFA Group K Winner)
8) Portugal (UEFA Group F Winner)
9) Brazil (CONMEBOL #2)
10) Netherlands (UEFA Group G Winner)
11) Belgium (UEFA Group J Winner)
12) Germany (UEFA Group A Winner)
Second seeds would then be:
13) Croatia (UEFA Group L Winner)
14) Morocco (CAF Group E Winner)
15) Colombia (CONMEBOL #6)
16) Uruguay (CONMEBOL #3)
17) Switzerland (UEFA Group B Winner)
18) Denmark (UEFA Group C Winner)
19) Senegal (CAF Group B Winner)
20) Japan (AFC Group C Winner)
21) Iran (AFC Group A Winner)
22) Austria (UEFA Group H Winner)
23) Panama (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)
24) South Korea (AFC Group B Winner)
Third seeds would then be:
25) Australia (AFC Group C Runner Up)
26) Ecuador (CONMEBOL #4)
27) Egypt (CAF Group A Winner)
28) Norway (UEFA Group I Winner)
29) Algeria (CAF Group G Winner)
30) Costa Rica (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)
31) Côte d'Ivoire (CAF Group F Winner)
32) Tunisia (CAF Group H Winner)
33) Cameroon (CAF Group D Winner)
34) Paraguay (CONMEBOL #5)
35) South Africa (CAF Group C Winner)
36) Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iraq/United Arab Emirates/Oman/Indonesia (highest AFC Fourth Round Winner)
Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):
- Ghana (CAF Group I Winner)
- Jordan (AFC Group B Runner Up)
- New Zealand (Oceania Winner)
- Uzbekistan (AFC Group A Runner Up)
- 4 x UEFA Playoff Winners (assuming the highest ranked teams of the November 2025 ranking: Italy? Türkiye? Ukraine? Sweden? With Wales, Serbia, Hungary and Poland being the next highest ranked teams)
- 1 x CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner (assuming the highest ranked teams of the predicted July 2025 ranking, one from: Jamaica? Honduras? El Salvador? Curaçao? Haiti?)
- 1 x AFC qualifier (again assuming the highest ranked teams of the predicted July 2025 ranking, from: Saudi Arabia? Iraq? United Arab Emirates? Oman? Indonesia?)
- 2 x Intercontinental Playoff Winners
With the crucial 3-0 for Norway against Italy, it looks like Italy is up against it to be one of the top seeds because they'll be a fourth seed if they don't finish top of their group, and if they overturn the group they will probably only be a second seed. It looks like Croatia and Morocco will be hoping for slip ups from Belgium and Germany but it looks like both have a comfortable lead.
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