2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 22 June 2025)

Qualifying Groups

Here's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying. A few things have changed with respect to the previous post in April 2025 following the March matches.

For Groups A-F obviously very little has changed because while points have been exchanged with the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations finals and friendlies, matches in those groups haven't yet been played.

For Groups G-L there's been some significant changes however, most notably in Groups G and I. In Group G the Netherlands will be feeling good about their chances after they saw their biggest rivals lose away to Finland, and in Group I Norway's 3-0 win at home to Italy have reversed the pre-Group predictions with Norway now being favorite to win the group meaning Italy would most likely be destined for the playoffs yet again, having lost the last two times they were in that predicament in 2022 and 2018. In Group H Austria's two wins has increased their chances to win the group, in Groups J, K and L Belgium, England and most significantly Croatia's chances have increased to win the group and qualify directly. 

NOTE: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.

Group A

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Germany                 68.75%  22.28%   6.95%   2.02%  31.25%  82.76%  17.24%

Slovakia                21.65%  42.62%  23.68%  12.05%  42.62%  33.17%  66.83%

Luxembourg               5.65%  19.22%  30.15%  44.98%  19.22%   7.30%  92.70%

Northern Ireland         3.95%  15.88%  39.22%  40.95%  88.57%  13.71%  86.29%

Group B

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Switzerland             48.83%  30.16%  16.51%   4.50%  30.16%  60.57%  39.43%

Sweden                  30.55%  33.36%  26.10%   9.99%  68.88%  50.57%  49.43%

Slovenia                17.76%  28.29%  36.97%  16.98%  28.29%  24.00%  76.00%

Kosovo                   2.86%   8.19%  20.42%  68.53%   8.19%   3.47%  96.53%

Group C

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Denmark                 50.81%  28.60%  16.40%   4.19%  29.38%  61.85%  38.15%

Greece                  25.08%  32.46%  31.20%  11.26%  32.46%  33.72%  66.28%

Scotland                22.04%  31.94%  33.44%  12.58%  33.35%  30.19%  69.81%

Belarus                  2.07%   7.00%  18.96%  71.97%   7.00%   2.68%  97.32%

Group D

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

France                  84.40%  13.37%   2.07%   0.16%  15.60%  93.83%   6.17%

Ukraine                 12.17%  56.12%  25.09%   6.62%  56.12%  30.61%  69.39%

Iceland                  3.18%  24.27%  49.80%  22.75%  24.27%   6.50%  93.50%

Azerbaijan               0.25%   6.24%  23.04%  70.47%   6.24%   0.56%  99.44%

Group E

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Spain                   81.04%  14.94%   3.30%   0.72%  18.96%  91.98%   8.02%

Türkiye                 13.79%  48.21%  26.15%  11.85%  48.21%  30.05%  69.95%

Georgia                  3.36%  22.22%  38.15%  36.27%  22.22%   6.80%  93.20%

Bulgaria                 1.81%  14.63%  32.40%  51.16%  14.63%   3.47%  96.53%

Group F

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Portugal                71.87%  20.07%   6.73%   1.33%  28.13%  85.56%  14.44%

Hungary                 18.38%  43.76%  27.11%  10.75%  44.21%  32.36%  67.64%

Ireland                  8.11%  26.51%  41.58%  23.80%  26.51%  12.83%  87.17%

Armenia                  1.64%   9.66%  24.58%  64.12%   9.66%   2.21%  97.79%

Group G

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Netherlands             89.67%   8.66%   1.63%   0.04%   0.00%   8.71%  94.15%   5.85%

Poland                   8.20%  55.88%  34.06%   1.81%   0.05%  56.00%  25.15%  74.85%

Finland                  2.12%  34.86%  59.64%   3.35%   0.03%  34.86%   6.45%  93.55%

Lithuania                0.01%   0.56%   4.21%  70.32%  24.90%   0.56%   0.03%  99.97%

Malta                    0.00%   0.04%   0.46%  24.48%  75.02%   0.04%   0.01%  99.99%

Group H

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Austria                 72.06%  19.50%   7.74%   0.70%   0.00%  19.50%  78.60%  21.40%

Bosnia and Herzegovina  20.74%  45.20%  31.50%   2.56%   0.00%  45.20%  25.48%  74.52%

Romania                  6.99%  33.82%  53.77%   5.41%   0.01%  92.91%  28.29%  71.71%

Cyprus                   0.21%   1.48%   6.98%  89.36%   1.97%   1.48%   0.26%  99.74%

San Marino               0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   1.97%  98.02%  26.69%   0.02%  99.98%

Group I

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Norway                  68.33%  30.14%   1.53%   0.00%   0.00%  31.67%  75.33%  24.67%

Italy                   30.35%  59.77%   9.32%   0.55%   0.01%  60.06%  61.23%  38.77%

Israel                   1.31%   9.91%  82.03%   6.09%   0.66%  10.18%   2.36%  97.64%

Moldova                  0.01%   0.04%   2.65%  20.74%  76.56%  66.37%   1.25%  98.75%

Estonia                  0.00%   0.14%   4.47%  72.62%  22.77%   0.14%   0.02%  99.98%

Group J

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Belgium                 78.47%  15.87%   5.18%   0.48%   0.00%  16.11%  86.64%  13.36%

Wales                   13.60%  48.01%  35.46%   2.93%   0.00%  86.40%  38.85%  61.15%

North Macedonia          7.75%  34.68%  53.00%   4.56%   0.01%  91.40%  18.76%  81.24%

Kazakhstan               0.18%   1.44%   6.35%  88.98%   3.05%   1.44%   0.24%  99.76%

Liechtenstein            0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   3.05%  96.94%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%

Group K

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

England                 91.24%   8.35%   0.41%   0.00%   0.00%   8.76%  95.94%   4.06%

Serbia                   8.43%  68.48%  18.81%   4.18%   0.10%  68.80%  28.85%  71.15%

Albania                  0.30%  19.46%  63.32%  16.20%   0.72%  19.46%   3.40%  96.60%

Latvia                   0.03%   3.68%  16.91%  72.81%   6.57%   3.68%   0.15%  99.85%

Andorra                  0.00%   0.03%   0.55%   6.81%  92.61%   0.03%   0.00% 100.00%

Group L

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Croatia                 82.14%  14.66%   3.03%   0.17%   0.00%  14.77%  88.42%  11.58%

Czechia                 15.11%  69.58%  14.63%   0.68%   0.00%  84.89%  35.05%  64.95%

Montenegro               2.68%  15.03%  71.76%  10.49%   0.04%  15.03%   4.22%  95.78%

Faroe Islands            0.07%   0.73%  10.52%  83.86%   4.82%   0.73%   0.10%  99.90%

Gibraltar                0.00%   0.00%   0.06%   4.80%  95.14%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%

Playoffs

Likelihood

The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round.

                      FRnk  Grp  Playoff
Romania                 45    H   92.91%
North Macedonia         67    J   91.40%
Northern Ireland        71    A   88.57%

Wales                   29    J   86.40%

Czechia                 39    L   84.89%

Sweden                  28    B   68.88%

Serbia                  31    K   68.80%

Moldova                154    I   66.37%

Italy                    9    I   60.06%

Ukraine                 25    D   56.12%

Poland                  34    G   56.00%

Türkiye                 27    E   48.21%

Bosnia and Herzegovina  70    H   45.20%

Hungary                 37    F   44.21%

Slovakia                46    A   42.62%

Finland                 69    G   34.86%

Scotland                44    C   33.35%

Greece                  40    C   32.46%

Norway                  38    I   31.67%

Germany                 10    A   31.25%

Switzerland             20    B   30.16%

Denmark                 21    C   29.38%

Slovenia                51    B   28.29%

Portugal                 7    F   28.13%

San Marino             210    H   26.69%

Ireland                 60    F   26.51%

Iceland                 74    D   24.27%

Georgia                 68    E   22.22%

Austria                 22    H   19.50%

Albania                 66    K   19.46%

Luxembourg              91    A   19.22%

Spain                    2    E   18.96%

Belgium                  8    J   16.11%

France                   3    D   15.60%

Montenegro              73    L   15.03%

Croatia                 11    L   14.77%

Bulgaria                85    E   14.63%

Israel                  78    I   10.18%

Armenia                102    F    9.66%

England                  4    K    8.76%

Netherlands              6    G    8.71%

Kosovo                  97    B    8.19%

Belarus                 98    C    7.00%

Azerbaijan             119    D    6.24%

Latvia                 138    K    3.68%

Cyprus                 129    H    1.48%

Kazakhstan             113    J    1.44%

Faroe Islands          141    L    0.73%

Lithuania              143    G    0.56%

Estonia                121    I    0.14%

Malta                  169    G    0.04%

Andorra                173    K    0.03%

Gibraltar              196    L    0.00%

Liechtenstein          205    J    0.00%

Results

The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Los-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.

NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                       FRnk Grp  Win-Fin  Lose-Fi  Win-Sem  Los-Sem  Playoff
France                    3   D   60.45%   21.35%   81.79%   18.21%   15.60%
Spain                     2   E   57.70%   21.36%   79.06%   20.94%   18.96%
England                   4   K   53.65%   24.89%   78.54%   21.46%    8.76%
Netherlands               6   G   51.44%   23.88%   75.32%   24.68%    8.71%
Italy                     9   I   51.42%   26.56%   77.97%   22.03%   60.06%
Belgium                   8   J   50.71%   25.51%   76.23%   23.77%   16.11%
Portugal                  7   F   48.67%   25.17%   73.84%   26.16%   28.13%
Germany                  10   A   44.83%   26.56%   71.39%   28.61%   31.25%
Croatia                  11   L   42.52%   29.99%   72.51%   27.49%   14.77%
Switzerland              20   B   38.93%   30.24%   69.16%   30.84%   30.16%
Denmark                  21   C   37.58%   31.35%   68.92%   31.08%   29.38%
Türkiye                  27   E   33.73%   30.39%   64.12%   35.88%   48.21%
Austria                  22   H   33.54%   31.90%   65.44%   34.56%   19.50%
Ukraine                  25   D   32.86%   33.02%   65.88%   34.12%   56.12%
Hungary                  37   F   31.62%   31.80%   63.42%   36.58%   44.21%
Poland                   34   G   30.27%   30.82%   61.09%   38.91%   56.00%
Serbia                   31   K   29.68%   31.99%   61.67%   38.33%   68.80%
Wales                    29   J   29.22%   27.63%   56.85%   43.15%   86.40%
Sweden                   28   B   29.07%   26.28%   55.34%   44.66%   68.88%
Slovakia                 46   A   27.03%   27.43%   54.46%   45.54%   42.62%
Greece                   40   C   26.62%   29.05%   55.67%   44.33%   32.46%
Malta                   169   G   25.00%   25.00%   50.00%   50.00%    0.04%
Scotland                 44   C   24.44%   29.24%   53.67%   46.33%   33.35%
Czechia                  39   L   23.49%   27.71%   51.20%   48.80%   84.89%
Romania                  45   H   22.93%   25.58%   48.51%   51.49%   92.91%
Norway                   38   I   22.10%   26.87%   48.97%   51.03%   31.67%
Slovenia                 51   B   22.06%   26.16%   48.21%   51.79%   28.29%
Ireland                  60   F   17.80%   24.78%   42.59%   57.41%   26.51%
Albania                  66   K   15.93%   23.69%   39.62%   60.38%   19.46%
Georgia                  68   E   15.48%   21.96%   37.44%   62.56%   22.22%
Estonia                 121   I   14.29%   14.29%   28.57%   71.43%    0.14%
Iceland                  74   D   13.68%   22.83%   36.51%   63.49%   24.27%
Finland                  69   G   12.42%   21.86%   34.28%   65.72%   34.86%
North Macedonia          67   J   12.05%   21.16%   33.21%   66.79%   91.40%
Bulgaria                 85   E   11.35%   18.66%   30.01%   69.99%   14.63%
Northern Ireland         71   A   11.02%   20.01%   31.03%   68.97%   88.57%
Bosnia and Herzegovina   70   H   10.49%   20.77%   31.26%   68.74%   45.20%
Israel                   78   I   10.31%   20.63%   30.94%   69.06%   10.18%
Montenegro               73   L   10.25%   20.76%   31.00%   69.00%   15.03%
Belarus                  98   C    8.71%   18.29%   27.00%   73.00%    7.00%
Luxembourg               91   A    8.58%   19.15%   27.73%   72.27%   19.22%
Kosovo                   97   B    7.45%   18.93%   26.37%   73.63%    8.19%
Armenia                 102   F    5.90%   19.67%   25.57%   74.43%    9.66%
Azerbaijan              119   D    4.97%   16.19%   21.15%   78.85%    6.24%
Kazakhstan              113   J    4.17%   16.67%   20.83%   79.17%    1.44%
Faroe Islands           141   L    4.11%   15.07%   19.18%   80.82%    0.73%
Lithuania               143   G    3.57%   21.43%   25.00%   75.00%    0.56%
Cyprus                  129   H    3.38%   14.19%   17.57%   82.43%    1.48%
Latvia                  138   K    3.26%   11.96%   15.22%   84.78%    3.68%
Moldova                 154   I    1.87%    9.94%   11.81%   88.19%   66.37%
San Marino              210   H    0.07%    2.21%    2.29%   97.71%   26.69%
Andorra                 173   K    0.00%   33.33%   33.33%   66.67%    0.03%
Gibraltar               196   L      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Liechtenstein           205   J      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%
Not sure what happened to Malta in this simulation run, out of 4 times that they qualified, they won the final once and lost the final once, which is very surprising...
Overall Qualifying
NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify.
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                      FRnk Grp     Qual  NotQual
England                  4   K   95.94%    4.06%
Netherlands              6   G   94.15%    5.85%
France                   3   D   93.83%    6.17%
Spain                    2   E   91.98%    8.02%
Croatia                 11   L   88.42%   11.58%
Belgium                  8   J   86.64%   13.36%
Portugal                 7   F   85.56%   14.44%
Germany                 10   A   82.76%   17.24%
Austria                 22   H   78.60%   21.40%
Norway                  38   I   75.33%   24.67%
Denmark                 21   C   61.85%   38.15%
Italy                    9   I   61.23%   38.77%
Switzerland             20   B   60.57%   39.43%
Sweden                  28   B   50.57%   49.43%
Wales                   29   J   38.85%   61.15%
Czechia                 39   L   35.05%   64.95%
Greece                  40   C   33.72%   66.28%
Slovakia                46   A   33.17%   66.83%
Hungary                 37   F   32.36%   67.64%
Ukraine                 25   D   30.61%   69.39%
Scotland                44   C   30.19%   69.81%
Türkiye                 27   E   30.05%   69.95%
Serbia                  31   K   28.85%   71.15%
Romania                 45   H   28.29%   71.71%
Bosnia and Herzegovina  70   H   25.48%   74.52%
Poland                  34   G   25.15%   74.85%
Slovenia                51   B   24.00%   76.00%
North Macedonia         67   J   18.76%   81.24%
Northern Ireland        71   A   13.71%   86.29%
Ireland                 60   F   12.83%   87.17%
Luxembourg              91   A    7.30%   92.70%
Georgia                 68   E    6.80%   93.20%
Iceland                 74   D    6.50%   93.50%
Finland                 69   G    6.45%   93.55%
Montenegro              73   L    4.22%   95.78%
Bulgaria                85   E    3.47%   96.53%
Kosovo                  97   B    3.47%   96.53%
Albania                 66   K    3.40%   96.60%
Belarus                 98   C    2.68%   97.32%
Israel                  78   I    2.36%   97.64%
Armenia                102   F    2.21%   97.79%
Moldova                154   I    1.25%   98.75%
Azerbaijan             119   D    0.56%   99.44%
Cyprus                 129   H    0.26%   99.74%
Kazakhstan             113   J    0.24%   99.76%
Latvia                 138   K    0.15%   99.85%
Faroe Islands          141   L    0.10%   99.90%
Lithuania              143   G    0.03%   99.97%
Estonia                121   I    0.02%   99.98%
San Marino             210   H    0.02%   99.98%
Malta                  169   G    0.01%   99.99%
Andorra                173   K    0.00%  100.00%
Gibraltar              196   L    0.00%  100.00%
Liechtenstein          205   J    0.00%  100.00%