2026 World Cup Qualifying CAF 10000 Simulations

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Group A

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Egypt                     94.43%   5.56%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Burkina Faso               5.53%  82.59%  10.57%   1.20%   0.11%   0.00%

Sierra Leone               0.04%  10.21%  54.05%  26.36%   9.22%   0.12%

Guinea-Bissau              0.00%   1.02%  25.13%  44.11%  28.49%   1.25%

Ethiopia                   0.00%   0.62%  10.21%  27.91%  59.52%   1.74%  

Djibouti                   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.42%   2.66%  96.89%

Group B

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Senegal                   62.53%  32.61%   4.83%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%

Democratic Rep of Congo   33.77%  50.90%  15.04%   0.29%   0.00%   0.00%

Sudan                      3.70%  16.36%  74.98%   4.89%   0.07%   0.00%

Togo                       0.00%   0.13%   4.45%  58.70%  25.98%  10.74%

Mauritania                 0.00%   0.00%   0.64%  25.11%  45.13%  29.12%

South Sudan                0.00%   0.00%   0.06%  10.98%  28.82%  60.14%

Group C

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

South Africa              87.60%  10.39%   1.65%   0.31%   0.05%   0.00%

Nigeria                    8.58%  47.06%  28.52%  10.59%   4.09%   1.16%

Benin                      2.58%  29.11%  35.10%  18.95%   9.97%   4.29%

Rwanda                     0.99%   9.11%  18.81%  33.47%  26.58%  11.04%

Lesotho                    0.18%   2.59%   7.57%  17.98%  33.25%  38.43%

Zimbabwe                   0.07%   1.74%   8.35%  18.70%  26.06%  45.08%

Group D

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Cameroon                  52.50%  41.02%   5.81%   0.67%   0.00%   0.00%

Cape Verde Islands        45.90%  44.69%   8.00%   1.40%   0.01%   0.00%

Angola                     0.77%   7.25%  45.99%  40.79%   4.63%   0.57%

Libya                      0.83%   6.94%  38.31%  47.01%   6.06%   0.85%

Mauritius                  0.00%   0.10%   1.63%   8.12%  68.15%  22.00%

Eswatini                   0.00%   0.00%   0.26%   2.01%  21.15%  76.58%

Group E

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth

Morocco                   99.96%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Tanzania                   0.02%  59.79%  24.28%  12.13%   3.78%

Zambia                     0.00%  16.45%  32.10%  33.59%  17.86%

Niger                      0.00%  15.34%  27.93%  30.89%  25.84%

Congo                      0.02%   8.38%  15.69%  23.39%  52.52%

Group F

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Côte d'Ivoire             78.93%  20.78%   0.29%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

Gabon                     20.96%  75.89%   3.07%   0.08%   0.00%   0.00%

Burundi                    0.11%   2.93%  54.21%  31.54%  11.21%   0.00%

Kenya                      0.00%   0.30%  30.99%  43.23%  25.15%   0.33%

Gambia                     0.00%   0.10%  11.44%  24.98%  61.35%   2.13%

Seychelles                 0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.17%   2.29%  97.54%

Group G

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Algeria                   93.46%   5.80%   0.65%   0.08%   0.01%   0.00%

Mozambique                 4.90%  60.09%  21.64%  10.27%   3.10%   0.00%

Uganda                     1.27%  20.24%  38.72%  26.40%  13.32%   0.05%

Guinea                     0.21%   8.77%  23.33%  37.92%  29.51%   0.26%

Botswana                   0.16%   5.10%  15.66%  25.28%  53.71%   0.09%

Somalia                    0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.05%   0.35%  99.60%

Group H

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Tunisia                   90.60%   8.82%   0.57%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%

Equatorial Guinea          9.10%  75.34%  13.61%   1.73%   0.22%   0.00%

Namibia                    0.30%  12.30%  59.70%  21.51%   6.18%   0.01%

Malawi                     0.00%   2.26%  16.46%  43.08%  37.38%   0.82%

Liberia                    0.00%   1.28%   9.65%  33.57%  55.14%   0.36%

São Tomé and Príncipe      0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.10%   1.08%  98.81%

Group I

                          Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth   Sixth

Ghana                     80.03%  14.99%   4.37%   0.61%   0.00%   0.00%

Mali                      10.65%  38.99%  30.76%  18.17%   1.43%   0.00%

Comoros                    7.33%  26.66%  32.39%  29.53%   4.09%   0.00%

Madagascar                 1.99%  18.95%  30.11%  40.94%   8.00%   0.01%

Central African Republic   0.00%   0.41%   2.37%  10.74%  83.05%   3.43%

Chad                       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   3.43%  96.56%

So that would mean that Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Morocco, Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Tunisia and Ghana should qualify for the 2026 World Cup outright, and that the best 4 from Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Cape Verde Islands, Tanzania, Gabon, Mozambique, Equatorial Guinea and Mali will qualify for the second round where one of those teams will qualify for the Intercontinental playoffs.