With just 2 matches to go a lot is already decided in South America, with Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador having already qualified, and Uruguay and Paraguay already being assured at least a playoff spot. Paraguay have benefitted the most since the last predictions, and Colombia have gone the other way, but should still qualify. In fact, only the positions have changed for the top 6. Venezuela is still most likely to finish in 7th which gives them a chance in the Intercontinental playoffs. While football is and will always be "a game of two halves", and Venezuela could still win away in Argentina and beat Colombia, that would have to be coupled with a home loss for Colombia against Bolivia, or otherwise both Uruguay or Paraguay would need to lose both their games. But even that situation might still see them lose out on goal difference. So 1.09% chance seems appropriate.
To qualify directly
(previous percentage from January 2025 in brackets)
Argentina 100.00% (100.00%)
Brazil 100.00% (99.14%)
Uruguay 99.99% (99.56%)
Ecuador 100.00% (95.99%)
Paraguay 99.91% (76.95%)
Colombia 98.67% (98.88%)
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Venezuela 1.09% (16.55%) -> intercontinental playoffs
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Bolivia 0.34% (7.64%)
Peru 0.00% (2.10%)
Chile 0.00% (3.19%)
To qualify for the Intercontinental Playoffs
Venezuela 81.97% (away to Argentina, home to Colombia)
Bolivia 15.54% (away to Colombia, home to Brazil)
Colombia 1.25% (home to Bolivia, away to Venezuela)
Peru 1.14% (away to Uruguay, home to Paraguay)
Paraguay 0.09% (home to Ecuador, away to Peru)
Uruguay 0.01% (home to Peru, away to Chile)
Chile 0.00%
Ecuador 0.00%
Brazil 0.00%
Argentina 0.00%
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