Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round.
Group A
Winner Run-Up Third Fourth
Panama 69.32% 19.59% 8.38% 2.71%
El Salvador 16.40% 37.24% 29.18% 17.18%
Guatamala 9.83% 28.13% 35.46% 26.58%
Surinam 4.45% 15.04% 26.98% 53.53%
Group B
Winner Run-Up Third Fourth
Jamaica 50.42% 28.47% 16.15% 4.96%
Curaçao 26.41% 32.43% 29.09% 12.07%
Trinidad and Tobago 20.13% 30.54% 33.09% 16.24%
Bermuda 3.04% 8.56% 21.67% 66.73%
Group C
Winner Run-Up Third Fourth
Costa Rica 52.04% 26.61% 15.22% 6.13%
Honduras 24.80% 32.08% 27.60% 15.52%
Haiti 18.57% 28.52% 31.85% 21.06%
Nicaragua 4.59% 12.79% 25.33% 57.29%
That should mean that Panama, Jamaica and Costa Rica qualify for the finals, and two of El Salvador, Curaçao and Honduras qualify for the Intercontinental playoffs, but to be honest there's not much to separate the second place teams in each group, and it would maybe only take one big performance for the successful second placed teams.
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