2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF 10000 Simulations (update 18 October 2025)

Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round.

So it would look like currently Panama, Jamaica and Honduras are slight favorites to win their groups and qualify for the finals, with Costa Rica having the best chances to upset that, followed by Curaçao. Surinam and Guatemala are still in the running for the Intercontinental qualifying spot. Comparing this to the previous simulation El Salvador's chances have dropped significantly.

Group A

                     Winner  Run-Up   Third  Fourth

Panama               61.92%  24.78%   9.79%   3.51%

Surinam              17.99%  39.53%  26.58%  15.90%

Guatamala            16.95%  29.39%  38.52%  15.14%

El Salvador           3.14%   6.30%  25.11%  65.45%

Group B

                     Winner  Run-Up   Third  Fourth

Jamaica              68.85%  23.13%   8.02%   0.00%

Curaçao              28.48%  54.76%  16.76%   0.00%

Trinidad and Tobago   2.67%  22.11%  73.34%   1.88%

Bermuda               0.00%   0.00%   1.88%  98.12%

Group C

                     Winner  Run-Up   Third  Fourth

Honduras             58.50%  35.74%   5.76%   0.00%

Costa Rica           35.40%  38.85%  25.37%   0.38%

Haiti                 6.10%  25.41%  63.83%   4.66%

Nicaragua             0.00%   0.00%   5.04%  94.96%