2026 World Cup Qualifying Africa Second Round - 10000 Simulations

So Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Nigeria made it through, the latter by one less goal scored against them, to have a chance to qualify for the Intercontinental qualifiers to be held in March 2026. So in terms of the simulation which team is likely to qualify?

Semi Finals

Nigeria v Gabon

                         W Semi

Nigeria                  64.37%

Gabon                    35.27%

Cameroon v Democratic Republic of Congo

                         W Semi

Cameroon                 54.61%

Democratic Rep of Congo  45.39%

Final

                         W Final  L Final    Win %  Lose %

Nigeria                   36.97%   28.76%   54.15%  45.85%
Cameroon                  27.57%   27.04%   52.77%  47.23%
Democratic Rep of Congo   22.26%   23.13%   49.03%  50.97%
Gabon                     14.20%   21.07%   39.34%  60.66%

Matches

Cameroon v Nigeria                  35.85%

Democratic Rep of Congo v Nigeria   28.88%

Cameroon v Gabon                    18.76%

Democratic Rep of Congo v Gabon     16.51%

So this data shows that there's no real clear favorite and that all teams certainly have a good chance.