Here's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying.
Qualifying Groups
Group A - Germany and Slovakia swapped with Germany now having the better chances again. Northern Ireland look pretty certain to reach the playoffs.
Group B - Switzerland are odds on favorite to win the group, and further below Kosovo and Sweden swapped places, but Sweden are certain to reach the playoffs no matter what place they finish in the group if the simulations are anything to go by,
Group C - It's a simple two-horse race between Denmark and Scotland.
Group D - France is clear favorite for the finals, and below that Ukraine and Iceland swapped places, with the former now being favorite to grab the playoff spot.
Group E - Spain is still hot favorite to qualify automatically with Türkiye strong favorite for the playoff spot.
Group F - Portugal should qualify automatically, and Hungary are most likely to take the playoff spot.
Group G - The Netherlands should secure the top spot and Poland will then qualify for the playoffs.
Group H - Austria should prevail to take the top spot, but Romania is in the race again for second place, but even if they don't manage that, they're favorites for the playoff spot via the Nations League spot.
Group I - Norway should take the top spot with Italy requiring a huge win against them to stand any chance to not be destined for the playoffs for the third straight time.
Group J - Belgium should qualify automatically and Wales and North Macedonia should fight it out for the playoff place, but both should be pretty certain to qualify for the playoffs via the Nations League if they don't finish runner-up.
Group K - With England having qualified, Albania and Serbia will fight for the runner-up place.
Group L - According to all simulation runs Croatia ends up on top so seems pretty certain to qualify. Below them the Faroe Islands and Montenegro swapped places, but Czechia are still odds on favorite to take the qualifying spot.
NOTE 1: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.
Group A
Group B
Group C
Group D
Group E
Group F
Group G
Group H
Group I
Group J
Group K
Group L
Croatia 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Czechia 0.00% 98.84% 1.16% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 28.49% 71.51%
Faroe Islands 0.00% 1.16% 98.78% 0.06% 0.00% 1.16% 0.02% 99.98%
Montenegro 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 99.89% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Gibraltar 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 99.95% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Playoffs
Likelihood
The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs.
NOTE 1: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round. And then in brackets are the old percentage from June 2025, and finally the change since last time).
FRnk Grp Playoff Prev Change
Czechia 44 L 100.00% (88.07% +11.93%)
Sweden 40 B 100.00% (90.83% +9.17%)
North Macedonia 65 J 99.85% (93.93% +5.92%)
Wales 34 J 99.63% (90.40% +9.23%)
Northern Ireland 69 A 99.42% (95.62% +3.80%)
Romania 47 H 99.33% (99.32% +0.01%)
Poland 33 G 97.49% (82.09% +15.40%)
Türkiye 26 E 96.72% (68.23% +28.49%)
Italy 9 I 86.23% (70.69% +15.54%)
Hungary 37 F 79.31% (55.38% +23.93%)
Scotland 38 C 75.10% (38.95% +36.15%)
Slovakia 46 A 70.41% (43.09% +27.32%)
Ukraine 27 D 70.03% (52.47% +17.56%)
Kosovo 84 B 70.01% (20.53% +49.48%)
Albania 61 K 68.05% (27.72% +40.33%)
Moldova 156 I 53.07% (59.18% -6.11%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 75 H 42.52% (67.15% -24.63%)
Serbia 36 K 32.02% (70.75% -38.73%)
Iceland 74 D 27.34% (42.57% -15.23%)
Denmark 20 C 24.90% (28.85% -3.95%)
Germany 10 A 24.89% (50.43% -25.54%)
Slovenia 51 B 23.25% (32.71% -9.46%)
Ireland 62 F 17.82% (20.05% -2.23%)
Norway 29 I 13.77% (23.62% -9.85%)
Austria 24 H 8.62% (10.19% -1.57%)
San Marino 210 H 4.32% (15.19% -10.87%)
Spain 1 E 3.10% (5.16% -2.06%)
Switzerland 17 B 2.86% (12.63% -9.77%)
France 3 D 2.65% (2.90% -0.25%)
Netherlands 6 G 2.51% (8.73% -6.22%)
Armenia 104 F 2.42% (20.49% -18.07%)
Faroe Islands 127 L 1.16% (0.11% 1.05%)
Belgium 8 J 0.52% (12.58% -12.06%)
Portugal 5 F 0.46% (4.92% -4.46%)
Georgia 70 E 0.18% (22.05% -21.87%)
Israel 78 I 0.02% (6.28% -6.26%)
Luxembourg 97 A 0.02% (3.06% -3.04%)
Andorra 172 K 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Azerbaijan 123 D 0.00% (2.17% -2.17%)
Belarus 103 C 0.00% (1.22% -1.22%)
Bulgaria 91 E 0.00% (5.07% -5.07%)
Croatia 11 L 0.00% (11.87% -11.87%)
Cyprus 125 H 0.00% (0.08% -0.08%)
England 4 K 0.00% (1.37% -1.37%)
Estonia 130 I 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Finland 72 G 0.00% (9.15% -9.15%)
Gibraltar 200 L 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Greece 48 C 0.00% (31.49% -31.49%)
Kazakhstan 115 J 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Latvia 139 K 0.00% (0.30% -0.30%)
Liechtenstein 206 J 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Lithuania 146 G 0.00% (0.04% -0.04%)
Malta 166 G 0.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Montenegro 81 L 0.00% (0.32% -0.32%)
Results
The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.
NOTE 1: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Los-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.
NOTE 2: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
NOTE 3: *** For Israel and Luxembourg due to the small number of samples the numbers are slightly exaggerated and not to be trusted.
France 3 D 64.15% 17.74% 81.89% 18.11% 2.65%
Portugal 5 F 63.04% 19.57% 82.61% 17.39% 0.46%
Spain 1 E 62.58% 22.90% 85.48% 14.52% 3.10%
Belgium 8 J 55.77% 28.85% 84.62% 15.38% 0.52%
Netherlands 6 G 53.39% 23.51% 76.89% 23.11% 2.51%
Italy 9 I 51.13% 24.56% 75.69% 24.31% 86.23%
(Israel *** 78 I 50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 50.00% 0.02%)
Germany 10 A 46.32% 26.68% 73.00% 27.00% 24.89%
Switzerland 17 B 40.21% 25.87% 66.08% 33.92% 2.86%
Denmark 20 C 39.28% 28.35% 67.63% 32.37% 24.90%
Austria 24 H 35.85% 30.39% 66.24% 33.76% 8.62%
Türkiye 26 E 35.50% 28.96% 64.46% 35.54% 96.72%
Ukraine 27 D 33.84% 29.64% 63.49% 36.51% 70.03%
Serbia 36 K 33.17% 30.07% 63.24% 36.76% 32.02%
Poland 33 G 30.50% 30.60% 61.09% 38.91% 97.49%
Norway 29 I 30.14% 27.67% 57.81% 42.19% 13.77%
Wales 34 J 28.98% 26.63% 55.61% 44.39% 99.63%
Czechia 44 L 28.49% 29.80% 58.29% 41.71% 100.00%
Hungary 37 F 27.39% 29.45% 56.84% 43.16% 79.31%
Slovakia 46 A 26.86% 28.87% 55.73% 44.27% 70.41%
Scotland 38 C 25.43% 27.20% 52.64% 47.36% 75.10%
Sweden 40 B 25.25% 23.44% 48.69% 51.31% 100.00%
Slovenia 51 B 21.89% 25.85% 47.74% 52.26% 23.25%
Romania 47 H 20.11% 22.71% 42.83% 57.17% 99.33%
Ireland 62 F 17.51% 21.83% 39.34% 60.66% 17.82%
North Macedonia 65 J 14.38% 21.27% 35.65% 64.35% 99.85%
Albania 61 K 13.64% 22.19% 35.83% 64.17% 68.05%
Iceland 74 D 12.73% 21.65% 34.38% 65.62% 27.34%
Northern Ireland 69 A 12.67% 20.44% 33.11% 66.89% 99.42%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 75 H 12.58% 21.26% 33.84% 66.16% 42.52%
Georgia 70 E 11.11% 16.67% 27.78% 72.22% 0.18%
Armenia 104 F 9.09% 21.90% 30.99% 69.01% 2.42%
Kosovo 84 B 7.87% 18.68% 26.55% 73.45% 70.01%
Faroe Islands 127 L 1.72% 18.10% 19.83% 80.17% 1.16%
Moldova 156 I 1.62% 10.89% 12.51% 87.49% 53.07%
San Marino 210 H 0.46% 2.31% 2.78% 97.22% 4.32%
(Luxembourg *** 97 A 0.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 0.02%)
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Andorra 172 K n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Azerbaijan 123 D n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Belarus 103 C n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Bulgaria 91 E n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Croatia 11 L n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Cyprus 125 H n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
England 4 K n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Estonia 130 I n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Finland 72 G n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Gibraltar 200 L n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Greece 48 C n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Kazakhstan 115 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Latvia 139 K n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Liechtenstein 206 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Lithuania 146 G n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Malta 166 G n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Montenegro 81 L n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%Overall Qualifying
NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify. In brackets are previous percentages from September 2025, and the change since then).
NOTE 1: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
NOTE 2: The first separation shows the 12 likely group winners. The next group shows those still in with a chance of qualifying, and the final groups shows the list of countries that according to the simulation no longer have a chance to qualify.
Frnk Grp Qual NotQual Prev Change
Croatia 11 L 100.00% 0.00% (93.47% +6.53%)
England 4 K 100.00% 0.00% (99.43% +0.57%)
Portugal 5 F 99.83% 0.17% (97.38% +2.45%)
Belgium 8 J 99.77% 0.23% (91.00% +8.77%)
France 3 D 99.05% 0.95% (98.78% +0.27%)
Spain 1 E 98.84% 1.16% (98.12% +0.72%)
Netherlands 6 G 98.83% 1.17% (95.03% +3.80%)
Switzerland 17 B 98.29% 1.71% (87.66% +10.63%)
Austria 24 H 93.65% 6.35% (92.32% +1.33%)
Norway 29 I 90.38% 9.62% (83.14% +7.24%)
Germany 10 A 86.64% 13.36% (73.42% +13.22%)
Denmark 20 C 84.88% 15.12% (71.82% +13.06%)
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Italy 9 I 57.86% 42.14% (57.86% 0.00%)
Scotland 38 C 44.00% 56.00% (32.34% +11.66%)
Slovakia 46 A 43.80% 56.20% (55.75% -11.95%)
Türkiye 26 E 37.44% 62.56% (27.21% +10.23%)
Poland 33 G 32.24% 67.76% (32.15% +0.09%)
Wales 34 J 29.24% 70.76% (35.14% -5.90%)
Czechia 44 L 28.49% 71.51% (34.38% -5.89%)
Ukraine 27 D 26.27% 73.73% (19.07% +7.20%)
Sweden 40 B 25.25% 74.75% (36.30% -11.05%)
Hungary 37 F 22.18% 77.82% (19.25% +2.93%)
Romania 47 H 20.65% 79.35% (20.98% -0.33%)
North Macedonia 65 J 14.51% 85.49% (19.53% -5.02%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 75 H 14.12% 85.88% (18.57% -4.45%)
Northern Ireland 69 A 12.60% 87.40% (14.24% -1.64%)
Serbia 36 K 10.62% 89.38% (23.11% -12.49%)
Albania 61 K 9.28% 90.72% (4.23% +5.05%)
Kosovo 84 B 8.37% 91.63% (4.58% +3.79%)
Slovenia 51 B 5.09% 94.91% (13.57% -8.48%)
Iceland 74 D 3.56% 96.44% (6.73% -3.17%)
Ireland 62 F 3.12% 96.88% (5.17% -2.05%)
Moldova 156 I 0.86% 99.14% (0.99% -0.13%)
Armenia 104 F 0.22% 99.78% (1.88% -1.66%)
Faroe Islands 127 L 0.02% 99.98% (0.01% +0.01%)
Georgia 70 E 0.02% 99.98% (4.53% -4.51%)
San Marino 210 H 0.02% 99.98% (0.03% -0.01%)
Israel 78 I 0.01% 99.99% (1.27% -1.26%)
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Andorra 172 K 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Azerbaijan 123 D 0.00% 100.00% (0.11% -0.11%)
Belarus 103 C 0.00% 100.00% (0.46% -0.46%)
Bulgaria 91 E 0.00% 100.00% (0.46% -0.46%)
Cyprus 125 H 0.00% 100.00% (0.01% -0.01%)
Estonia 130 I 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Finland 72 G 0.00% 100.00% (1.74% -1.74%)
Gibraltar 200 L 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Greece 48 C 0.00% 100.00% (25.58% -25.58%)
Kazakhstan 115 J 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Latvia 139 K 0.00% 100.00% (0.02% -0.02%)
Liechtenstein 206 J 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Lithuania 146 G 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Luxembourg 97 A 0.00% 100.00% (1.18% -1.18%)
Malta 166 G 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
Montenegro 81 L 0.00% 100.00% (0.00% 0.00%)
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