Well, well, well, that makes things a lot more interesting in Group C following the decision to award Lesotho the points for the 21 March 2025 match that initially ended in a 2-0 win for South Africa but has now been awarded 0-3 to Lesotho. South Africa was firm favorite with 96.84% of the simulations going their way, but it is now a four-horse race again. Saying that, with an away match against the bottom team Zimbabwe and a home match against Rwanda they will still fancy their chances, with Benin probably needing wins away to Rwanda and Nigeria. Nigeria could still qualify directly if they win both their matches away to lowly Lesotho and at home to Benin, but they'll then need South Africa to lose one of their remaining two matches. And then there's Rwanda, they're also in with a chance given that they will play Benin at home and South Africa away. Either way, their matches will have an influence on who wins the group most likely. In other words, as the simulations now suggest, there's not much in it, and it could still go to goal difference. Below how things stood before that awarded match, and how things now stand.
Sunday, October 5, 2025
2026 World Cup Qualifying CAF 10000 Simulations (update 5 October 2025)
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
South Africa 96.84% 3.06% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Benin 2.28% 48.12% 38.03% 11.57% 0.00% 0.00%
Nigeria 0.80% 45.56% 44.02% 8.86% 0.76% 0.00%
Rwanda 0.08% 3.26% 17.67% 77.61% 1.38% 0.00%
Lesotho 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 1.96% 57.18% 40.68%
Zimbabwe 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 40.68% 59.32%
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
South Africa 38.53% 37.71% 17.53% 6.16% 0.07% 0.00%
Benin 29.80% 27.73% 32.61% 9.67% 0.19% 0.00%
Nigeria 29.51% 28.17% 32.81% 7.09% 2.42% 0.00%
Rwanda 2.15% 5.90% 13.77% 63.58% 14.60% 0.00%
Lesotho 0.01% 0.49% 3.28% 13.50% 57.89% 24.83%
Zimbabwe 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 24.83% 75.17%
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