So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the 28 November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, given simulation yet to be published but run for the purposes of this determination, what the seeding pots will likely look like.
NOTE 1: This doesn't include matches still to be scheduled or not yet in my database. For example, Brazil's friendlies are still TBD, but I'll post updates if there's any expected changes because of such matches.
NOTE 2: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted 23 October 2025 ranking (see http://www.football-rankings.info/2025/10/fifa-ranking-october-2025-sneak-peak.html).
Pos Country Points +/- +/-
1 Spain 1889.68 0 8.92
2 Argentina 1872.43 0 0.00
3 France 1870.00 0 7.29
4 England 1834.12 0 9.82
5 Portugal 1785.17 0 7.17
6 Netherlands 1768.67 0 8.71
7 Brazil 1758.85 0 0.00
8 Belgium 1743.17 0 3.16
9 Italy 1727.01 0 9.86
10 Germany 1724.09 0 10.79
11 Croatia 1716.88 0 6.73
12 Morocco 1710.11 0 0.00
13 Colombia 1700.71 0 4.99
14 Mexico 1685.75 0 3.23
15 Uruguay 1677.62 0 0.04
16 United States 1676.88 0 3.39
17 Switzerland 1666.81 0 13.49
18 Denmark 1654.25 2 13.23
19 Senegal 1650.61 0 0.00
20 Japan 1647.65 -1 2.31
21 Iran 1618.28 0 0.00
22 Austria 1597.52 2 10.54
23 South Korea 1596.62 -1 2.70
24 Ecuador 1591.74 -1 2.03
25 Australia 1584.02 0 0.00
26 Türkiye 1570.19 0 0.01
27 Canada 1559.10 1 4.47
28 Ukraine 1557.47 -1 2.11
29 Panama 1540.88 2 12.66
30 Russia 1539.47 -1 8.52
31 Wales 1529.82 3 11.01
32 Norway 1525.99 -2 -3.93
33 Egypt 1525.31 0 0.00
34 Hungary 1520.71 3 15.80
35 Poland 1519.42 -2 -4.42
36 Algeria 1510.26 0 0.00
37 Serbia 1506.27 -1 -1.57
38 Nigeria 1505.96 3 10.57
39 Costa Rica 1501.74 6 18.00
40 Scotland 1494.27 -2 -9.93
41 Côte d'Ivoire 1491.78 0 0.00
42 Paraguay 1491.50 -3 -6.65
43 Tunisia 1490.80 0 0.00
44 Romania 1490.66 3 10.52
45 Sweden 1487.73 -5 -9.26
46 Czechia 1487.00 -2 2.32
47 Slovakia 1482.80 -1 -0.55
48 Greece 1480.38 0 7.39
49 Slovenia 1471.72 2 8.79
50 Qatar 1461.60 0 0.00
51 Cameroon 1460.26 3 6.55
52 Peru 1459.52 -3 -4.52
53 Venezuela 1459.14 -3 -4.13
54 Mali 1455.78 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1452.35 0 0.00
56 Chile 1442.93 0 -4.00
57 South Africa 1427.77 0 0.00
58 Saudi Arabia 1427.37 0 0.00
59 Iraq 1426.42 -2 -2.28
60 Democratic Republic of Congo 1422.09 0 0.78
61 Albania 1401.07 0 -0.27
62 Burkina Faso 1398.05 0 0.00
63 Honduras 1392.04 1 -4.19
64 Jamaica 1387.16 4 19.99
65 Ireland 1386.62 -4 -14.56
66 North Macedonia 1383.46 -1 -7.15
67 United Arab Emirates 1382.21 0 2.28
68 Jordan 1380.87 0 0.00
69 Northern Ireland 1375.39 0 9.12
70 Georgia 1372.88 0 6.95
71 Finland 1366.67 1 6.40
72 Cape Verde Islands 1364.26 0 0.00
73 Ghana 1356.40 0 0.00
74 Iceland 1344.72 0 -0.12
75 Israel 1333.06 3 8.48
76 Bolivia 1329.54 0 -5.01
77 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1325.36 -2 -16.01
78 Gabon 1321.25 -1 -8.66
79 Oman 1312.32 0 0.00
80 Guinea 1305.22 0 0.00
81 Montenegro 1297.09 0 -0.79
82 Curaçao 1290.50 0 -5.02
83 Uganda 1287.75 0 0.00
84 New Zealand 1281.44 0 -4.08
85 Syria 1276.67 1 3.95
86 Kosovo 1271.72 -1 -13.02
87 Haiti 1269.49 1 1.17
88 Zambia 1268.60 0 0.00
89 Angola 1267.45 0 0.00
89 Bahrain 1267.16 0 0.00
91 Benin 1259.39 0 0.00
92 Equatorial Guinea 1254.37 0 0.00
93 El Salvador 1251.20 2 3.44
94 China 1249.06 0 0.00
95 Bulgaria 1247.19 -4 -15.88
96 Guatemala 1245.19 0 3.68
97 Thailand 1240.18 0 4.82
98 Palestine 1230.55 0 0.00
99 Trinidad and Tobago 1227.56 1 -2.35
100 Mozambique 1227.53 0 0.00
101 Tajikistan 1224.93 1 4.72
102 Luxembourg 1212.45 -4 -19.35
103 Belarus 1202.09 0 -10.69
104 Kyrgyzstan 1201.22 0 0.00
105 Armenia 1196.30 -1 -8.40
106 Madagascar 1193.48 0 0.00
107 Lebanon 1190.64 3 5.95
108 Vietnam 1189.51 3 5.89
109 Tanzania 1187.08 0 0.00
109 Niger 1187.00 0 0.00
111 Kenya 1185.55 0 0.00
112 Comoros 1180.18 0 0.00
113 Mauritania 1179.20 0 0.00
114 Libya 1177.77 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1168.41 3 6.88
116 Kazakhstan 1165.96 -1 -2.51
117 Namibia 1162.80 0 0.00
118 Gambia 1162.12 0 0.00
119 Sudan 1157.11 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Sierra Leone 1149.10 0 0.00
122 Indonesia 1144.73 0 0.00
123 Togo 1140.35 0 0.00
124 Cyprus 1133.50 1 -3.93
125 Azerbaijan 1132.97 -2 -9.28
126 Faroe Islands 1129.95 1 -2.46
127 Zimbabwe 1125.52 0 0.00
128 Estonia 1118.08 1 -4.17
129 Rwanda 1117.87 0 0.00
130 Surinam 1116.12 -4 -19.77
131 Guinea-Bissau 1108.09 0 0.00
132 Congo 1105.96 0 0.00
133 Malawi 1105.34 0 0.00
134 India 1104.52 2 7.87
135 Kuwait 1098.33 0 0.00
136 Nicaragua 1091.86 -4 -14.97
137 Philippines 1090.95 4 9.51
138 Turkmenistan 1087.52 4 9.43
139 Liberia 1085.00 0 0.00
140 Botswana 1084.56 0 0.00
141 Central African Republic 1083.57 0 0.00
142 Latvia 1077.75 -3 -6.51
143 Dominican Republic 1073.54 0 0.00
144 Lesotho 1065.24 0 0.00
145 Burundi 1060.22 0 0.00
146 Ethiopia 1055.36 0 0.00
147 Hong Kong 1052.01 1 -0.53
148 Lithuania 1051.43 -2 -4.14
149 Yemen 1048.83 3 8.70
150 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
151 New Caledonia 1042.62 0 0.00
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 1041.53 0 0.00
153 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
154 Fiji 1035.11 0 0.00
155 Singapore 1031.02 0 0.53
156 Puerto Rico 1020.07 0 0.00
157 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
158 Moldova 1012.73 -2 -7.47
159 Eswatini 1010.52 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Afghanistan 991.18 0 -0.01
163 Myanmar 990.76 0 0.01
164 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
165 Grenada 986.38 0 0.00
166 South Sudan 978.70 0 0.00
167 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 972.68 0 0.00
168 Malta 971.71 -2 -7.48
169 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
170 Cuba 965.20 0 0.00
171 Bermuda 964.13 -3 -12.62
172 Andorra 949.58 0 -5.52
173 Maldives 945.02 0 -9.51
174 Taiwan 938.21 0 -9.43
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Mauritius 915.51 0 0.00
178 Chad 913.87 0 0.00
179 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
180 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
181 Nepal 902.44 -1 -6.88
182 Dominica 901.37 0 0.00
183 Bangladesh 886.19 0 -7.87
184 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
185 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
186 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
187 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
188 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
189 São Tomé and Príncipe 871.17 0 0.00
189 Laos 871.16 -1 -5.89
191 Bhutan 867.86 -2 -8.70
192 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
193 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
194 Sri Lanka 857.35 -1 -4.82
195 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
196 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
197 Djibouti 847.89 0 0.00
198 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
199 Timor Leste 835.55 -1 -4.72
200 Pakistan 833.14 -1 -3.95
201 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
202 Somalia 818.59 0 0.00
203 Gibraltar 818.03 -2 -5.29
204 Bahamas 807.36 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.33 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 799.83 0 -2.16
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 765.41 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 758.52 0 0.00
211 San Marino 726.15 0 -1.79
2 Argentina 1872.43 0 0.00
3 France 1870.00 0 7.29
4 England 1834.12 0 9.82
5 Portugal 1785.17 0 7.17
6 Netherlands 1768.67 0 8.71
7 Brazil 1758.85 0 0.00
8 Belgium 1743.17 0 3.16
9 Italy 1727.01 0 9.86
10 Germany 1724.09 0 10.79
11 Croatia 1716.88 0 6.73
12 Morocco 1710.11 0 0.00
13 Colombia 1700.71 0 4.99
14 Mexico 1685.75 0 3.23
15 Uruguay 1677.62 0 0.04
16 United States 1676.88 0 3.39
17 Switzerland 1666.81 0 13.49
18 Denmark 1654.25 2 13.23
19 Senegal 1650.61 0 0.00
20 Japan 1647.65 -1 2.31
21 Iran 1618.28 0 0.00
22 Austria 1597.52 2 10.54
23 South Korea 1596.62 -1 2.70
24 Ecuador 1591.74 -1 2.03
25 Australia 1584.02 0 0.00
26 Türkiye 1570.19 0 0.01
27 Canada 1559.10 1 4.47
28 Ukraine 1557.47 -1 2.11
29 Panama 1540.88 2 12.66
30 Russia 1539.47 -1 8.52
31 Wales 1529.82 3 11.01
32 Norway 1525.99 -2 -3.93
33 Egypt 1525.31 0 0.00
34 Hungary 1520.71 3 15.80
35 Poland 1519.42 -2 -4.42
36 Algeria 1510.26 0 0.00
37 Serbia 1506.27 -1 -1.57
38 Nigeria 1505.96 3 10.57
39 Costa Rica 1501.74 6 18.00
40 Scotland 1494.27 -2 -9.93
41 Côte d'Ivoire 1491.78 0 0.00
42 Paraguay 1491.50 -3 -6.65
43 Tunisia 1490.80 0 0.00
44 Romania 1490.66 3 10.52
45 Sweden 1487.73 -5 -9.26
46 Czechia 1487.00 -2 2.32
47 Slovakia 1482.80 -1 -0.55
48 Greece 1480.38 0 7.39
49 Slovenia 1471.72 2 8.79
50 Qatar 1461.60 0 0.00
51 Cameroon 1460.26 3 6.55
52 Peru 1459.52 -3 -4.52
53 Venezuela 1459.14 -3 -4.13
54 Mali 1455.78 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1452.35 0 0.00
56 Chile 1442.93 0 -4.00
57 South Africa 1427.77 0 0.00
58 Saudi Arabia 1427.37 0 0.00
59 Iraq 1426.42 -2 -2.28
60 Democratic Republic of Congo 1422.09 0 0.78
61 Albania 1401.07 0 -0.27
62 Burkina Faso 1398.05 0 0.00
63 Honduras 1392.04 1 -4.19
64 Jamaica 1387.16 4 19.99
65 Ireland 1386.62 -4 -14.56
66 North Macedonia 1383.46 -1 -7.15
67 United Arab Emirates 1382.21 0 2.28
68 Jordan 1380.87 0 0.00
69 Northern Ireland 1375.39 0 9.12
70 Georgia 1372.88 0 6.95
71 Finland 1366.67 1 6.40
72 Cape Verde Islands 1364.26 0 0.00
73 Ghana 1356.40 0 0.00
74 Iceland 1344.72 0 -0.12
75 Israel 1333.06 3 8.48
76 Bolivia 1329.54 0 -5.01
77 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1325.36 -2 -16.01
78 Gabon 1321.25 -1 -8.66
79 Oman 1312.32 0 0.00
80 Guinea 1305.22 0 0.00
81 Montenegro 1297.09 0 -0.79
82 Curaçao 1290.50 0 -5.02
83 Uganda 1287.75 0 0.00
84 New Zealand 1281.44 0 -4.08
85 Syria 1276.67 1 3.95
86 Kosovo 1271.72 -1 -13.02
87 Haiti 1269.49 1 1.17
88 Zambia 1268.60 0 0.00
89 Angola 1267.45 0 0.00
89 Bahrain 1267.16 0 0.00
91 Benin 1259.39 0 0.00
92 Equatorial Guinea 1254.37 0 0.00
93 El Salvador 1251.20 2 3.44
94 China 1249.06 0 0.00
95 Bulgaria 1247.19 -4 -15.88
96 Guatemala 1245.19 0 3.68
97 Thailand 1240.18 0 4.82
98 Palestine 1230.55 0 0.00
99 Trinidad and Tobago 1227.56 1 -2.35
100 Mozambique 1227.53 0 0.00
101 Tajikistan 1224.93 1 4.72
102 Luxembourg 1212.45 -4 -19.35
103 Belarus 1202.09 0 -10.69
104 Kyrgyzstan 1201.22 0 0.00
105 Armenia 1196.30 -1 -8.40
106 Madagascar 1193.48 0 0.00
107 Lebanon 1190.64 3 5.95
108 Vietnam 1189.51 3 5.89
109 Tanzania 1187.08 0 0.00
109 Niger 1187.00 0 0.00
111 Kenya 1185.55 0 0.00
112 Comoros 1180.18 0 0.00
113 Mauritania 1179.20 0 0.00
114 Libya 1177.77 0 0.00
115 Malaysia 1168.41 3 6.88
116 Kazakhstan 1165.96 -1 -2.51
117 Namibia 1162.80 0 0.00
118 Gambia 1162.12 0 0.00
119 Sudan 1157.11 0 0.00
120 North Korea 1151.05 0 0.00
121 Sierra Leone 1149.10 0 0.00
122 Indonesia 1144.73 0 0.00
123 Togo 1140.35 0 0.00
124 Cyprus 1133.50 1 -3.93
125 Azerbaijan 1132.97 -2 -9.28
126 Faroe Islands 1129.95 1 -2.46
127 Zimbabwe 1125.52 0 0.00
128 Estonia 1118.08 1 -4.17
129 Rwanda 1117.87 0 0.00
130 Surinam 1116.12 -4 -19.77
131 Guinea-Bissau 1108.09 0 0.00
132 Congo 1105.96 0 0.00
133 Malawi 1105.34 0 0.00
134 India 1104.52 2 7.87
135 Kuwait 1098.33 0 0.00
136 Nicaragua 1091.86 -4 -14.97
137 Philippines 1090.95 4 9.51
138 Turkmenistan 1087.52 4 9.43
139 Liberia 1085.00 0 0.00
140 Botswana 1084.56 0 0.00
141 Central African Republic 1083.57 0 0.00
142 Latvia 1077.75 -3 -6.51
143 Dominican Republic 1073.54 0 0.00
144 Lesotho 1065.24 0 0.00
145 Burundi 1060.22 0 0.00
146 Ethiopia 1055.36 0 0.00
147 Hong Kong 1052.01 1 -0.53
148 Lithuania 1051.43 -2 -4.14
149 Yemen 1048.83 3 8.70
150 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
151 New Caledonia 1042.62 0 0.00
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 1041.53 0 0.00
153 Guyana 1037.34 0 0.00
154 Fiji 1035.11 0 0.00
155 Singapore 1031.02 0 0.53
156 Puerto Rico 1020.07 0 0.00
157 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
158 Moldova 1012.73 -2 -7.47
159 Eswatini 1010.52 0 0.00
160 Antigua and Barbuda 992.38 0 0.00
161 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
162 Afghanistan 991.18 0 -0.01
163 Myanmar 990.76 0 0.01
164 St. Lucia 990.69 0 0.00
165 Grenada 986.38 0 0.00
166 South Sudan 978.70 0 0.00
167 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 972.68 0 0.00
168 Malta 971.71 -2 -7.48
169 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
170 Cuba 965.20 0 0.00
171 Bermuda 964.13 -3 -12.62
172 Andorra 949.58 0 -5.52
173 Maldives 945.02 0 -9.51
174 Taiwan 938.21 0 -9.43
175 Barbados 919.97 0 0.00
176 Montserrat 916.75 0 0.00
177 Mauritius 915.51 0 0.00
178 Chad 913.87 0 0.00
179 Cambodia 910.21 0 0.00
180 Belize 904.45 0 0.00
181 Nepal 902.44 -1 -6.88
182 Dominica 901.37 0 0.00
183 Bangladesh 886.19 0 -7.87
184 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
185 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
186 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
187 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
188 Brunei 875.78 -3 -5.95
189 São Tomé and Príncipe 871.17 0 0.00
189 Laos 871.16 -1 -5.89
191 Bhutan 867.86 -2 -8.70
192 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
193 Aruba 861.16 0 0.00
194 Sri Lanka 857.35 -1 -4.82
195 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
196 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
197 Djibouti 847.89 0 0.00
198 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
199 Timor Leste 835.55 -1 -4.72
200 Pakistan 833.14 -1 -3.95
201 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
202 Somalia 818.59 0 0.00
203 Gibraltar 818.03 -2 -5.29
204 Bahamas 807.36 0 0.00
205 Seychelles 805.33 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 799.83 0 -2.16
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 765.41 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 758.52 0 0.00
211 San Marino 726.15 0 -1.79
From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:
1) United States (certain, hosts)
2) Mexico (certain, hosts)
3) Canada (certain, hosts)
4) Spain (UEFA Group E Winner)
5) Argentina (CONMEBOL #1)
6) France (UEFA Group D Winner)
7) England (UEFA Group K Winner)
8) Portugal (UEFA Group F Winner)
9) Netherlands (UEFA Group G Winner)
10) Brazil (CONMEBOL #5)
11) Belgium (UEFA Group J Winner)
12) Germany (UEFA Group A Winner)
Second seeds would then be:
13) Croatia (UEFA Group L Winner)
14) Morocco (CAF Group E Winner)
15) Colombia (CONMEBOL #3)
16) Uruguay (CONMEBOL #4)
17) Switzerland (UEFA Group B Winner)
18) Denmark (UEFA Group C Winner)
19) Senegal (CAF Group B Winner)
20) Japan (AFC Third Round Group C Winner)
21) Iran (AFC Third Round Group A Winner)
22) Austria (UEFA Group H Winner)
23) South Korea (AFC Third Round Group B Winner)
24) Ecuador (CONMEBOL #2)
Third seeds would then be:
25) Australia (AFC Third Round Group C Runner Up)
26) Panama (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)
27) Norway (UEFA Group I Winner)
28) Egypt (CAF Group A Winner)
29) Algeria (CAF Group G Winner)
30) Côte d'Ivoire (CAF Group F Winner)
31) Paraguay (CONMEBOL #6)
32) Tunisia (CAF Group H Winner)
33) Qatar (AFC Fourth Round Group A Winner)
34) Uzbekistan (AFC Third Round Group A Runner Up)
35) South Africa (CAF Group C Winner)
36) Saudi Arabia (AFC Fourth Round Group B Winner) - #58
Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):
- Honduras (CONCACAF Third Round Group C Winner) - #63
- Jamaica (CONCACAF Third Round Group B Winner) - #64
- Jordan (AFC Third Round Group B Runner Up) - #68
- Cape Verde Islands (CAF Group D Winner) - #72
- Ghana (CAF Group I Winner) - #73
- New Zealand (Oceania Winner) - #84
- 4 x UEFA Playoff Winners (assuming the highest ranked teams of the November 2025 ranking: Italy? Türkiye? Ukraine? Wales? With Hungary, Scotland, Poland and Czechia being the next highest ranked teams)
- 2 x Intercontinental Playoff Winners (Bolivia, New Caledonia, either Iraq/United Arab Emirates, either Nigeria/Gabon/Cameroon/Democratic Republic of Congo, and probably one of Surinam, Curaçao and Costa Rica, given 10000 simulations, yet to be published)
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