Friday, March 4, 2011

Gold Cup groups to be announced on March 8

According to the Mexican Football Federation, the Gold Cup groups and fixtures will be announced on March 8th.

The 2011 CONCACAF Gold Cup will take place from 5 July to 25 July in the USA.

12 teams will be participating:

Automatic qualifiers: USA, Mexico and Canada
2010 Caribbean Championship: Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Cuba and Grenada
2011 Copa Centroamericana: Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Guatemala

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Friday, February 25, 2011

FIFA to decide 2014 World Cup slots

FIFA's Executive Committee will decide how many places each confederation will be allocated for the 2014 FIFA World Cup at its meeting to be held in Zurich on 2 and 3 March.

CONCACAF are already pushing for an increase in their quota - from 3.5 to 4.

I already wrote about allocating slots right in July 2010.

Allocating World Cup slots: Is there a better way?

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: CHAN matches to be included?

CAF president Issa Hayatou announced in his speech in Khartoum:

"On February 12, a proposal was forwarded to the FIFA Executive Committee to include results of CHAN matches in the FIFA rankings."

I doubt FIFA will agree since they don't include CHAN matches in the rankings because CHAN rules restrict the eligibility of players.

However, politics are usually more important than football.

Maybe AFC should take note and ask FIFA to "upgrade" AFC Challenge Cup matches from friendlies to continental qualifiers since the winners advance to the Asian Cup final tournament and most of the teams involved in the Challenge Cup don't participate in the main qualifiers.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Friday, February 18, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup probable seeding info

A couple of weeks ago, I sort of promised to post seeding tables computed using probable results.

2014 FIFA World Cup probable seeding for CAF teams (18 February 2010)
2014 FIFA World Cup probable seeding for UEFA teams (18 February 2010)

I only did it for CAF and UEFA, because CONCACAF have postponed the Gold Cup groups announcement to March.

I also tweaked a bit the generation of probable results - to generate less draws (23.66% instead of 33% if anyone cares). Thanks Russian Lurkmore for the suggestion! He suggested using 10%, but in the last 8 years 23.66% of international matches were draws.

Hopefully I'll post updates every month.

Enjoy!

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup probable seeding for UEFA teams (18 February 2010)

See the list of probable results.

FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Underachievers

France in the second pot based on their pedigree would be a suprise, but based on the probable results (especially the defeat against Ukraine in June) they would be 11th in Europe in the Elo Ratings.

Italy (7th in Europe in the Elo Ratings) and Sweden (8) fail to reach the first pot.
Ukraine (10), Republic of Ireland (15), Switzerland (17) and Czech Republic (18) fail to reach the second pot.
Poland (23), Bulgaria (25) and Scotland (26) fail to reach the third pot.
Finland (34) fail to reach the fourth pot.

Overachievers

Norway (12) and Greece (16) in the first pot.
Denmark (20), Slovenia (12) and Montenegro (22) in the second pot.
Hungary (29) and Belgium (31) in the third pot.
Albania (40) in the fourth pot.

Slovakia (28) are a special case. Based on the Elo Ratings they would be in the fourth pot, but using the probable July 2011 FIFA ranking they are in the second pot.

 1 Spain                    1622
2 Netherlands 1592
3 Germany 1361
4 England 1281
5 Portugal 1119
6 Croatia 1107
7 Norway 1077
8 Russia 1050
9 Greece 1020
--------------------------------
10 Italy 977
11 Serbia 917
12 Montenegro 888
13 Sweden 884
14 Slovenia 877
15 France 859
16 Slovakia 821
17 Turkey 815
18 Denmark 778
--------------------------------
19 Republic of Ireland 756
20 Switzerland 724
21 Israel 706
22 Czech Republic 703
23 Ukraine 680
24 Belarus 676
25 Romania 646
26 Hungary 603
27 Belgium 587
--------------------------------
28 Austria 584
29 Lithuania 573
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina 555
31 Bulgaria 526
32 Scotland 513
33 Northern Ireland 506
34 Cyprus 478
35 Albania 467
36 Poland 455
--------------------------------
37 Latvia 448
38 Finland 419
39 Armenia 404
40 Georgia 386
41 Moldova 383
42 Estonia 371
43 FYR Macedonia 331
44 Azerbaijan 300
45 Wales 240
--------------------------------
46 Luxembourg 213
47 Iceland 205
48 Kazakhstan 174
49 Faroe Islands 156
50 Liechtenstein 109
51 Malta 83
52 Andorra 0
52 San Marino 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup probable seeding for CAF teams (18 February 2010)

See the list of probable results.

Algeria and Malawi tied for 12th. Algeria in the first pot because their unrounded total points are higher than Malawi's.

FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Underachievers

South Africa (7th in Africa in the Elo Ratings), Senegal (8), Uganda (10) and Mali (12) fail to reach the first pot.
Congo DR (23) and Gambia (24) fail to reach the second pot.
Ethiopia (33) and Namibia (36) fail to reach the third pot.
Seychelles (48) fail to reach the fourth pot.

Overachievers

Guinea (13), Gabon (14), Libya (15) and Algeria (18) in the first pot.
Mozambique (26) and Niger (28) in the second pot.
Chad (38) and Kenya (39) in the third pot.
Somalia (51) in the fourth pot.

 1 Côte d'Ivoire            922
2 Egypt 875
3 Cameroon 744
4 Ghana 705
5 Burkina Faso 659
6 Nigeria 646
7 Tunisia 556
8 Gabon 551
9 Libya 530
10 Morocco 514
11 Guinea 494
12 Algeria 479
-------------------------------
12 Malawi 479
14 Senegal 475
15 Botswana 462
16 Cape Verde Islands 443
17 Mali 439
18 Uganda 417
19 South Africa 412
20 Zambia 399
21 Benin 380
22 Angola 357
23 Niger 356
24 Mozambique 351
-------------------------------
25 Sudan 343
26 Central African Republic 301
27 Zimbabwe 267
28 Sierra Leone 260
29 Tanzania 258
30 Gambia 257
31 Congo DR 240
32 Togo 238
33 Rwanda 208
34 Congo 206
35 Kenya 173
36 Chad 167
-------------------------------
37 Ethiopia 149
38 Guinea-Bissau 142
39 Burundi 130
40 Namibia 104
41 Madagascar 92
42 Equatorial Guinea 83
43 Liberia 77
44 Swaziland 68
45 Lesotho 44
46 Mauritania 32
47 Eritrea 29
48 Somalia 23
-------------------------------
49 Comoros 19
50 Djibouti 12
51 Mauritius 10
52 Seychelles 7
53 Sao Tome e Principe 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: Probable results (18 February 2011)

Only matches involving CAF or UEFA teams.

Results are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

25/Mar Mali - Zimbabwe 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Cape Verde Islands - Liberia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Madagascar - Guinea 2 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Libya - Comoros 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Mozambique - Zambia X (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Tanzania - Central African Republic 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Senegal - Cameroon X (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Congo DR - Mauritius 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Burkina Faso - Namibia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Niger - Sierra Leone 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar South Africa - Egypt 2 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Rwanda - Burundi 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Côte d'Ivoire - Benin 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Congo - Ghana 2 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Sudan - Swaziland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Kenya - Angola 2 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Guinea-Bissau - Uganda 2 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Spain - Czech Republic 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Chad - Botswana X (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Malawi - Togo 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Lithuania - Poland X (Friendly)
25/Mar Qatar - Tunisia X (Friendly)
25/Mar Gabon - Gambia 1 (Friendly)
25/Mar Japan - Montenegro 1 (Friendly)
25/Mar Austria - Belgium 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Serbia - Northern Ireland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Hungary - Netherlands 2 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Slovenia - Italy X (Continental Qualifier)
25/Mar Luxembourg - France 2 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Wales - England 2 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Bulgaria - Switzerland X (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Armenia - Russia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Bosnia-Herzegovina - Romania X (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Republic of Ireland - FYR Macedonia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Germany - Kazakhstan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Albania - Belarus X (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Andorra - Slovakia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Cyprus - Iceland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Norway - Denmark 1 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Malta - Greece 2 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Georgia - Croatia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Mar Israel - Latvia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
27/Mar Nigeria - Ethiopia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
27/Mar Algeria - Morocco X (Continental Qualifier)
27/Mar Brazil - Scotland 1 (Friendly)
29/Mar Lithuania - Spain 2 (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar Greece - Poland 1 (Friendly)
29/Mar Oman - Tunisia X (Friendly)
29/Mar Korea Republic - Montenegro 1 (Friendly)
29/Mar France - Croatia X (Friendly)
29/Mar Ukraine - Italy X (Friendly)
29/Mar Czech Republic - Liechtenstein 1 (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar Sweden - Moldova 1 (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar Northern Ireland - Slovenia X (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar England - Ghana 1 (Friendly)
29/Mar Turkey - Austria 1 (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar Netherlands - Hungary 1 (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar Belgium - Azerbaijan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar Romania - Luxembourg 1 (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar Portugal - Finland 1 (Friendly)
29/Mar Israel - Georgia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
29/Mar Estonia - Serbia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
30/Mar Morocco - Angola 1 (Friendly)
24/May Republic of Ireland - Northern Ireland 1 (Friendly)
25/May Scotland - Wales 1 (Friendly)
27/May Wales - Northern Ireland X (Friendly)
29/May Republic of Ireland - Scotland 1 (Friendly)
03/Jun Zimbabwe - Mali X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Liberia - Cape Verde Islands 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Guinea - Madagascar 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Ethiopia - Nigeria 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Comoros - Libya 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Zambia - Mozambique 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Central African Republic - Tanzania X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Morocco - Algeria 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Cameroon - Senegal 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Mauritius - Congo DR 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Namibia - Burkina Faso 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Sierra Leone - Niger X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Egypt - South Africa 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Burundi - Rwanda X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Benin - Côte d'Ivoire 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Ghana - Congo 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Swaziland - Sudan 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Angola - Kenya 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Uganda - Guinea-Bissau 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Kazakhstan - Azerbaijan X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Belgium - Turkey X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Italy - Estonia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Faroe Islands - Slovenia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Romania - Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Belarus - France X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun San Marino - Finland 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Moldova - Sweden 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Liechtenstein - Lithuania 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Botswana - Malawi X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Tunisia - Chad 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Hungary - Luxembourg 1 (Friendly)
03/Jun Austria - Germany 2 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Russia - Armenia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun FYR Macedonia - Republic of Ireland 2 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Slovakia - Andorra 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Latvia - Israel X (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Greece - Malta 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Croatia - Georgia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Montenegro - Bulgaria 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun England - Switzerland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Iceland - Denmark 2 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Portugal - Norway 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Brazil - Netherlands X (Friendly)
06/Jun Ukraine - France 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Azerbaijan - Germany 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Faroe Islands - Estonia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Bosnia-Herzegovina - Albania 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Belarus - Luxembourg 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun San Marino - Hungary 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Sweden - Finland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Slovenia - FYR Macedonia 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Austria - Latvia 1 (Friendly)
09/Jun Poland - France X (Friendly)
22/Jun Uruguay - Estonia 1 (Friendly)
26/Jun Bolivia - Latvia X (Friendly)

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.