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Friday, November 19, 2010

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for UEFA teams (19 November 2010)

Next update: 11 February 2011

The preliminary draw will take place on July 31st, 2011.

Assumptions:

- UEFA will again have 13 spots
- UEFA will again use the system with 9 groups
- FIFA will use the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already 50% of the final ranking. Things can and will change before July 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving European teams: EURO 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.

UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).

This is the July 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including November 18th, 2010 and matches scheduled up to July 2011 (only those on fifa.com).

The "1.0" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Serbia replace Turkey in the second pot.
Israel replace Austria in the third pot.
Bosnia-Herzegovina replace Estonia in the fourth pot.

Best movers:

8 - Belgium
4 - Israel
3 - France, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Georgia

Worst movers:

-7 - Estonia
-5 - Austria and Armenia
-3 - Moldova and FYR Macedonia

Most points gained:

63 - Norway
61 - Georgia
58 - France

Most points lost:

-42 - Slovakia
-38 - Estonia
-18 - Austria

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 Spain                    1351
2 2 Netherlands 1329
3 3 Germany 1093
4 4 England 997
4 5 Norway 997
6 6 Portugal 952
7 9 Montenegro 907
8 7 Croatia 900
9 8 Russia 872
-----------------------------------
9 10 Greece 872
11 11 Italy 815
12 15 France 754
13 13 Denmark 753
14 12 Slovakia 737
15 14 Slovenia 705
16 17 Switzerland 676
17 16 Czech Republic 649
18 20 Serbia 637
-----------------------------------
19 19 Sweden 619
20 18 Turkey 617
21 21 Belarus 611
22 22 Ukraine 595
23 24 Hungary 575
24 23 Lithuania 535
25 25 Republic of Ireland 503
26 26 Bulgaria 482
27 31 Israel 458
-----------------------------------
28 36 Belgium 457
29 29 Northern Ireland 452
30 32 Scotland 450
31 30 Albania 447
32 27 Austria 442
33 28 Armenia 441
34 35 Romania 424
35 38 Bosnia-Herzegovina 423
36 33 Moldova 417
-----------------------------------
37 37 Latvia 388
38 39 Cyprus 384
39 41 Finland 373
40 43 Georgia 369
41 34 Estonia 368
42 42 Poland 366
43 40 FYR Macedonia 348
44 44 Azerbaijan 303
45 45 Wales 223
-----------------------------------
46 46 Iceland 205
47 47 Luxembourg 169
48 48 Faroe Islands 156
49 49 Kazakhstan 130
50 50 Liechtenstein 95
51 51 Malta 60
52 52 Andorra 0
52 53 San Marino 0

25 comments:

  1. The July FIFA world ranking is published on July 27, 2011. Does this mean that matches are weigted as below:

    July 28, 2010-July 21, 2011 1.0
    July 28, 2009-July 27, 2010 0.5
    July 28, 2008-July 27, 2009 0.3
    July 28, 2007-July 27, 2008 0.2

    It would be good for teams who did not qualify for the world cup if those games are only given 0.5 weighting.

    Fredrik

    ReplyDelete
  2. Montenegro and Norway in the top pot and just eight months of matches to go... :o

    Montenegro just has one competitive match though...would it be better for their ranking chances not to play friendlies?

    ReplyDelete
  3. well played Poland and Romania...

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Frederik

    The matches will be weighted as usual, with the four time frames.

    @Håkon

    It would be better for both to either avoid friendlies or to choose them very carefully.

    @Anonymous

    They're not out of the woods yet. It will be especially difficult for Poland to climb higher than fourth pot.

    ReplyDelete
  5. The Norwegian FA seems oblivious to this advice, and have indicated an away friendly in March and a home friendly in June. They're already selling tickets for the home match though the opposition isn't known yet.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hey, just wanted to let you know that for the 2014 FIFA World cup seedings for UEFA i think it should have said...
    "Bosnia-Herzegovina replace Estonia in the fourth pot."
    rather than...
    "Bosnia-Herzegovina replace Austria in the fourth pot."

    Love your work.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Edgar: thanks :) so they know about it, but choose to ignore it and think they can get more 'athletic development' by scheduling friendlies.

    They aren't 100 % sure that this method will be used either, citing previous seeding chaos (and I suppose even FIFA are scared by the thought of a first pot containing four teams who failed to qualify for 2010)

    ReplyDelete
  8. @Anonymous

    Thanks for noticing. Fixed now.

    @Håkon

    I'm not against scheduling friendlies. I think you can always find a compromise between "athletic development" and ranking improvement. But it's their choice and who could blame them? Norway are doing fine - both in the qualifiers and the FIFA ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm pretty sure that UEFA NT Coefficients will be used anyway

    ReplyDelete
  10. @Amir: No it won't. WC qualification is FIFA, not UEFA. FIFA use the FIFA ranking for their tournaments. UEFA use the UEFA NT Coefficients for their tournaments.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I don't understand.
    How can Montenegro occupy first pot.
    How can they advance about 15 places in 6 months time regarding they play only one official match (versus Bulgaria at home) ?

    ReplyDelete
  12. @ Confused

    Montenegro played their first match as an independant nation March 24th 2007, a 2-1 victory over Hungary. This is the only result that will drop from Montenegro's ranking completely.

    In addition, three defeats are going to devalue from Montengro's 100% 1st year ranking, but all the good stuff, nothing but 5 victories, 3 of them qualifiers, and a qualifier draw with England will all stay at 100% rating, giving Montenegro an extremely high average total for the first year. This is the first time I've looked at it, but it looks to me like a fact, not a prediction, that Montenegro will be a Pot A side for the 2014 World Cup qualifying draw if they use the World Rankings.

    As an Englishman, that will hopefully at least avert some of the humiliation if Montenegro top this group over us. Bulgaria are weak. Montengro should defeat them too since they have them at home, and have already beat them in Bulgaria.

    To any Montenegro fans, enjoy the light outside Serbia's shadow.

    ReplyDelete
  13. @ Confused

    Montenegro have scheduled friendlies in Japan against Japan and Korea Republic against Korea Republic.

    That may well cost them the top pot. It's the equivalent of suicide where these rankings are concerned. If Montengro cancel those friendlies, they'll probably be Pot A for 2014. But even if they win them both their score will decrease (I think.)

    Suicide!

    ReplyDelete
  14. @Confused

    Montenegro had very good results in the qualifiers and had they not scheduled the two Far East friendlies, they would still be in the first pot. However, they dropped to the second pot now.

    ReplyDelete
  15. @Edgar

    Why do you think tkey will lose both of them?
    The friendlies come after Asian Cup and maybe Japan and Korea will not be 100% prepared for these matches.

    But, deeper analyse shows Montenegro will advance because Croatia, Greece, Russia and Italy will lose points.

    However, I cannot imagine Montenegro will be in first pot, FIFA will change its mind and introduce additional calculation (World Cup Finals results etc...)

    ReplyDelete
  16. I didn't say they will lose those matches. If you look in the post, you'll see this:

    "The "1.0" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled)."

    Using this method, Montenegro have dropped out of the first pot.

    ReplyDelete
  17. @Edgar

    Thanks, finally I understand.
    Montenegro average number of points will drop because friendlies will increase denominator.

    Really stupid, you can win matches but your nominator will not grow as denominator and your average number of points will decrease.

    ReplyDelete
  18. It is amusing that Montenegro is far surpassing Serbia.

    Maybe it should have been Serbia that got their record wiped and put to 0 points when they split, ha ha! It's even more impressive because Montenegro had to fight up from the bottom pot.

    Then there's Norway. Norway is a consequence of the stupid qualifying system which robbed Norway of a playoff. They finished 2nd, they deserved a shot too. And going by the way they are performing now, who's to say they couldn't have made the World Cup, and then made an impact when they got there? It won't bother me if Norway make the top pot.

    Montenegro probably don't deserve it, but if they get it, it would be great compensation for their shabby treatment in the seedings.

    ReplyDelete
  19. @ Lorric
    It was the same case when Croatia split apart from Yugoslavia. Croatia started from zero, Ukraine, Belarus and company too.

    It is price for independance, you can go, but points stay with us.

    You said:
    "Montenegro had to fight up from the bottom pot.

    Now, it is not true, if you were playing matches in all of last 4 years you do not start from the bottom. You are then in no different position than other teams.

    ReplyDelete
  20. @ Confused

    You start from the bottom at the beginning. Montenegro were bottom seed for World Cup qualifiers. 2nd bottom seed for Euro qualifiers. Also bottom seed for everything else too, Montenegro were bottom seed in England's U21 Euro qualifying group for the 2009 tournament for instance. Montenegro clubs started as bottom seeds in UEFA competition, and are still struggling, although they've managed to escape the first qualifying round of the Champions League now.

    ReplyDelete
  21. @Lorris
    Yes Lorris, all you said is true, but regarding World Cup qualifiers and FIFA ranking if you have 4 continuous years you are not at the beginnig.

    World Cup 2010 qualify was just another story because then Montenegro did not have those 4 continuous years.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Edgar why you aren't posting 2014wc seeding using probable results?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Because teams are still negotiating friendlies. Maybe I'll post something like this in February.

    ReplyDelete