FIFA Ranking: September 2011 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on September 21.

Only one match left before the deadline: Argentina - Brazil, a friendly scheduled for 14 September in Cordoba, Argentina.

This is how the totals can change for these 8 teams.

Brazil (L:1118, D: 1132, W: 1159)
Argentina (L: 1014, D: 1024, W: 1046)

The values displayed in the table below are the lowest possible.


Biggest change is at the top - Netherlands' reign lasted only a month, as Spain claim 1st place again. A lot of movement in the top 10: Uruguay climb to 4th, Portugal jump 3 spots to 5th, England fall 4 places to 8th.

Papua New Guinea enter the ranking again - 187th. Samoa join the list of teams with 0 points.

Best movers:

28 - Estonia
27 - Armenia and Wales
26 - Togo and Tajikistan

Worst movers:

-34 - Moldova
-19 - Lithuania and Cape Verde Islands
-17 - Botswana and Gambia


Best movers in the top 50:

27 - Armenia
18 - Hungary
17 - Bosnia-Herzegovina

Worst movers in the top 50:

-15 - Belarus
-13 - Slovakia
-12 - Ukraine

Burkina Faso overtake Nigeria for 4th in Africa. Senegal are now tied for 5th with Nigeria.

Panama replace Costa Rica as 5th in CONCACAF.

New Caledonia replace Vanuatu as 3rd in Oceania.

Spain replace Netherlands as 1st in Europe. Portugal 4th in Europe, England out of the top 5.

Six teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Uruguay (4th - 5th in July 2011)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (22nd - 25th in August 2007)
Hungary (27th - 36th in March 2011)
Armenia (44th - 59th in November 2010)
Estonia (58th - 60th in December 2002)
Belize (133rd - 148th in July 2011)

Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:

Spain (1st - first achieved in July 2008)
Liechtenstein (118th - first achieved in January 2008)

Hong Kong will return to their worst ever ranking - 156th - first happened in November 2008.

Seven teams will drop to their worst ever ranking:

Saudi Arabia (97th - 92nd in June 2011)
Congo (144th - 139th in April 1996)
Bermuda (189th - 185th in December 1998)
Eritrea (190th - 189th in October 1998)
Mauritania (193rd - 190th in August 2011)
Tonga (201st - 194th in August 2011)
Samoa (203rd - 191st in May 2007)

September 2011 rank - Team - September 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points 

1	Spain	1605	1	42
2	Netherlands	1571	-1	-25
3	Germany	1290	0	-40
4	Uruguay	1184	1	10
5	Portugal	1158	3	98
6	Italy	1142	1	32
7	Brazil	1118	-1	-38
8	England	1089	-4	-88
9	Croatia	1057	1	48
10	Argentina	1014	-1	-3
11	Greece	1000	3	63
12	France	956	3	38
13	Russia	954	0	14
14	Chile	932	-3	-28
15	Japan	924	0	6
16	Côte d'Ivoire	918	-1	0
17	Denmark	893	4	52
18	Switzerland	886	12	129
19	Australia	882	3	45
20	Mexico	867	0	3
21	Serbia	855	8	71
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina	839	17	183
23	Norway	835	-11	-108
24	Paraguay	825	1	18
25	Sweden	792	-7	-97
26	Montenegro	778	-7	-97
27	Hungary	754	18	141
27	Turkey	754	-3	-57
29	Korea Republic	749	4	4
29	Republic of Ireland	749	2	-5
31	USA	741	-3	-50
32	Colombia	739	3	9
33	Slovenia	732	-10	-84
34	Belgium	729	3	54
35	Peru	724	-9	-82
36	Egypt	714	-2	-25
37	Ghana	700	-1	-26
38	Israel	677	-6	-69
39	Slovakia	662	-13	-144
40	Czech Republic	656	2	21
41	Burkina Faso	651	-1	5
42	Nigeria	614	-4	-45
42	Senegal	614	7	23
44	Armenia	610	27	154
45	Jamaica	606	-2	-17
46	Algeria	605	0	-7
47	Venezuela	598	-3	-17
48	Cameroon	596	4	14
49	Romania	584	5	26
50	Iran	576	3	17
51	South Africa	574	-4	-28
52	Scotland	572	3	18
53	Honduras	564	-3	-25
53	Panama	564	9	40
55	Bulgaria	559	-4	-27
56	Belarus	554	-15	-91
57	Costa Rica	549	3	19
58	Estonia	537	28	163
59	Morocco	534	2	5
60	Ukraine	531	-12	-67
61	Tunisia	527	-4	-19
62	Libya	519	2	15
62	Mali	519	19	111
64	Georgia	499	-1	-23
65	Poland	496	0	-2
66	Gabon	489	1	7
66	Zimbabwe	489	8	55
68	Sierra Leone	488	24	140
69	Ecuador	482	-3	-9
70	Northern Ireland	477	-11	-68
71	Albania	474	-14	-72
72	Finland	472	7	56
73	China PR	469	-4	5
74	Latvia	460	10	72
75	Lithuania	459	-19	-93
76	Guinea	447	-7	-17
77	Austria	442	-9	-30
78	Malawi	439	-5	3
79	Uzbekistan	422	3	21
80	Trinidad and Tobago	414	11	59
81	Bolivia	412	4	32
82	Uganda	411	-2	0
83	Zambia	410	-7	-17
84	Angola	407	12	69
84	Jordan	407	8	59
86	Cyprus	398	-10	-29
87	Canada	395	15	76
88	El Salvador	390	-13	-41
89	New Zealand	377	5	31
90	Wales	374	27	123
91	Cape Verde Islands	372	-19	-72
92	Benin	370	-9	-24
93	Niger	368	11	59
94	FYR Macedonia	366	-4	8
95	Botswana	364	-17	-60
95	Togo	364	26	122
97	Azerbaijan	359	15	87
97	Saudi Arabia	359	-10	-13
99	Kuwait	353	-4	12
100	Qatar	350	-12	-14
101	Antigua and Barbuda	345	5	37
102	Bahrain	335	-1	10
103	Cuba	332	-4	5
103	Sudan	332	-5	3
105	Oman	319	-2	7
106	Iceland	316	18	84
107	Iraq	307	2	14
108	Haiti	305	8	46
109	Guatemala	302	4	41
109	Syria	302	-12	-35
111	Central African Republic	296	-7	-13
112	United Arab Emirates	287	-4	-12
113	Suriname	286	-3	1
114	Luxembourg	284	14	73
115	Mozambique	280	-16	-47
116	Guyana	278	-2	18
117	Thailand	274	3	28
118	Liechtenstein	270	1	23
119	Namibia	269	24	100
120	Grenada	265	-2	16
121	Korea DPR	257	-7	-3
122	Moldova	255	-34	-109
123	St. Kitts and Nevis	251	-1	12
124	Gambia	248	-17	-58
125	Faroe Islands	244	-14	-29
126	Tanzania	240	-1	11
127	Tajikistan	238	26	106
128	Liberia	230	-5	-8
129	Congo DR	225	-2	3
130	Vietnam	209	-1	0
131	Kenya	200	2	2
132	Kazakhstan	198	-6	-29
133	Belize	195	15	49
133	Ethiopia	195	7	14
135	Nepal	193	1	0
136	Singapore	189	-7	-20
137	Yemen	185	-4	-13
138	Bangladesh	183	1	1
139	Dominican Republic	182	-6	-16
139	Indonesia	182	-8	-25
141	Burundi	179	4	15
141	Turkmenistan	179	1	0
143	Rwanda	178	-5	-14
144	Congo	177	-12	-24
145	Puerto Rico	173	-1	6
146	Lebanon	163	14	57
147	Fiji	158	-6	-22
147	Malaysia	158	-1	0
149	Dominica	154	-13	-39
150	Barbados	148	-3	-8
151	US Virgin Islands	144	-2	0
152	Bahamas	141	-1	0
152	Equatorial Guinea	141	2	10
154	Malta	137	13	35
155	New Caledonia	128	10	24
156	Hong Kong	124	-2	-7
156	Nicaragua	124	23	49
158	Madagascar	115	-6	-24
158	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	115	0	3
160	Lesotho	112	25	72
161	Chad	110	-7	-21
162	Palestine	109	-5	-8
163	Guinea-Bissau	106	-13	-36
163	India	106	-5	-6
163	Mongolia	106	-3	0
166	Maldives	105	-4	0
166	Philippines	105	-4	0
168	Myanmar	98	0	-1
169	Swaziland	96	3	6
170	Aruba	92	0	0
170	Pakistan	92	0	0
172	Chinese Taipei	89	-3	-8
173	Vanuatu	88	-11	-17
174	Cambodia	84	2	1
174	Cayman Islands	84	-2	-6
174	Sri Lanka	84	0	-2
177	Seychelles	82	-2	-3
178	Comoros	75	4	7
178	Curacao	75	-12	-28
178	Kyrgyzstan	75	-1	-4
178	Solomon Islands	75	-1	-4
182	Laos	71	-2	0
183	Afghanistan	70	-2	0
184	Tahiti	68	-1	11
185	St. Lucia	46	-1	-8
186	Guam	36	11	26
187	Papua New Guinea	34	20	34
188	Mauritius	33	0	-2
189	Bermuda	30	-4	-10
190	Eritrea	28	-1	-1
191	British Virgin Islands	25	-4	-13
191	Macau	25	1	0
193	Mauritania	23	-3	-4
193	Somalia	23	0	0
195	Turks and Caicos Islands	13	0	0
196	Djibouti	12	0	0
197	Cook Islands	10	0	0
198	Anguilla	9	2	2
198	Brunei Darussalam	9	1	0
200	Bhutan	6	1	0
201	Timor-Leste	3	1	0
201	Tonga	3	-7	-12
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Andorra	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Samoa	0	-12	-26
203	San Marino	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Final draw coefficients (12 September 2011)

Next update: 14 October 2011

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 final draw will take into account results from:

EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

Hosts Poland (23806) and Ukraine (28029) will be seeded for the final draw, along with 2008 winners, Spain and the team with the best coefficient of the qualified teams - most likely the Netherlands.

Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands have already qualified.

The ranking computed after the October qualifiers will be used to seed the teams for the EURO 2012 play-offs.

Best movers:

4 - Scotland, Estonia and Armenia
3 - Serbia, Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Latvia
2 - Turkey, Switzerland, Iceland and Luxembourg

Worst movers:

-5 - Israel
-4 - Montenegro and Abalnia
-3 - Slovenia and Northern Ireland

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points

1  1 Spain              40016
 2  2 Netherlands        39660
 3  3 Germany            37966
 4  5 England            33063
 5  4 Italy              32697
 6  7 Croatia            31523
 7  6 Russia             30671
 8  8 Greece             29995
 9  9 Portugal           29677
10 10 Sweden             29235
11 11 France             28848
12 12 Denmark            28105
13 16 Serbia             27595
14 13 Slovakia           26654
15 14 Czech Republic     26456
16 18 Turkey             26421
17 19 Switzerland        26245
18 17 Ireland            25743
19 22 Hungary            25710
20 15 Israel             25702
21 21 Norway             25543
22 25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 25498
23 20 Slovenia           24423
24 24 Finland            24293
25 26 Romania            24168
26 23 Northern Ireland   23039
27 31 Scotland           22951
28 28 Belarus            22238
29 27 Bulgaria           22214
30 33 Latvia             21985
31 30 Austria            21586
32 32 Belgium            21319
33 29 Montenegro         21313
34 34 Lithuania          19781
35 39 Estonia            19134
36 37 Wales              18557
37 41 Armenia            18506
38 36 Macedonia          18424
39 35 Albania            17564
40 38 Cyprus             16636
41 40 Georgia            16582
42 44 Iceland            15392
43 42 Moldova            15162
44 45 Azerbaijan         15011
45 43 Kazakhstan         14298
46 48 Luxembourg         13245
47 46 Liechtenstein      13030
48 47 Faroe Islands      12176
49 49 Malta              10679
50 50 Andorra             8627
51 51 San Marino          7642

If the teams with the best coefficient qualify the final draw pot would look like this:

Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot 2: Germany, England, Italy, Croatia
Pot 3: Russia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: France, Denmark, Serbia, Czech Republic

Croatia replace Russia in the second pot.
Serbia replace Slovakia in the fourth pot.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Greatest upsets

Chris Wathan asked me how big of an upset a Wales victory against England would be based on FIFA rankings. I thought this would also make an interesting post.

So here's the top 20 upsets with two restrictions:

• only competitive matches
• losing team must be in the top 20 of the FIFA ranking at the time of the match

Of course, this list only includes matches played after 8 August 1993 - the first edition of the FIFA ranking.

Date - Match type - Team 1 - Team 2 - Result - Rank 1 - Rank 2 - Rank difference

10-Oct-10	CQ	Niger	Egypt	1:0 (1:0)	154	9	145
20-Aug-97	WQ	Bosnia-Herzegovina	Denmark	3:0 (3:0)	117	3	114
06-Jun-07	CQ	Armenia	Poland	1:0 (0:0)	128	18	110
07-Sep-05	WQ	Northern Ireland	England	1:0 (0:0)	116	7	109
07-Jun-95	CQ	Belarus	Netherlands	1:0 (1:0)	113	7	106
02-Sep-11	CQ	Wales	Montenegro	2:1 (1:0)	117	19	98
10-Nov-96	WQ	Congo	Zambia	1:0 (0:0)	110	16	94
06-Jul-95	CF	Mexico	Paraguay	1:2 (1:0)	7	100	93
06-Sep-08	WQ	Austria	France	3:1 (2:0)	101	11	90
17-Oct-07	CQ	Georgia	Scotland	2:0 (1:0)	104	14	90
08-Oct-10	CQ	Armenia	Slovakia	3:1 (1:1)	105	16	89
09-Sep-07	CQ	Equatorial Guinea	Cameroon	1:0 (1:0)	105	16	89
10-Oct-98	CQ	Denmark	Wales	1:2 (0:0)	18	107	89
21-Nov-07	CQ	Belarus	Netherlands	2:1 (0:0)	94	7	87
11-Oct-95	CQ	Georgia	Bulgaria	2:1 (1:0)	100	14	86
28-Mar-01	WQ	Belarus	Norway	2:1 (1:0)	99	14	85
06-Sep-98	CQ	Norway	Latvia	1:3 (1:1)	11	94	83
04-Sep-04	WQ	Albania	Greece	2:1 (2:1)	94	14	80
07-Nov-01	WQ	Bolivia	Brazil	3:1 (1:1)	81	2	79
01-Jun-96	WQ	Sudan	Zambia	2:0 (1:0)	94	15	79

CQ = Continental Qualifier
WQ = World Cup Qualifier
CF = Continental Final

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

In defense of the FIFA World Rankings

This won't be a defense of England's 4th position (I think it's a bit too high) or a defense of Ghana's 36th position (too low).

Well, there's not much to say that hasn't already been said (see Mirko Bolesan for instance).

This morning I chanced upon this WorldSoccer.com piece by Jim Holden.

FIFA Rankings are flawed, I admit - but this is really not the way to show it.

There are a couple of problematic statements.

"While Brazil and England are always overrated because of their historic status and prestige in the global game, a small nation like Paraguay is treated with disdain."

"Ivory Coast are the one and only African team in the top 33 of the FIFA rankings, placed 14th. How can this be correct? How can Ghana, quarter-finalists at the last World Cup and only denied a place in the semi-finals by the handball of Luis Suarez, be down at 36th? "

The FIFA ranking is based on a formula, not on historic status and prestige.

Home/away is not a factor in the formula. In the last 12 months (the most recent of the 4 one-year time frames take into account), England still have the two ECQ wins against Bulgaria and Switzerland. Those two wins alone bring 318.75 points of the total 1177. Unfortunately for England, they will lose 50% of their value in the September ranking, that's why the Elo ratings based probable September ranking has England in 8th. There are another 4 results that bring 279.12 points - so together with the two previous wins - that's more than 50% of England's points. Those 4 results are:

80.77 - England - Slovenia 1 - 0 (2010 WC)
78.75 - Wales - England 0 - 2 (2012 ECQ)
64.50 - Denmark - England 1 - 2 (Friendly)
55.10 - England - Croatia 5 - 1 (2010 WCQ)

Looking at Paraguay's last 12 months:

Losses against Japan, Australia, Mexico, Argentina and Uruguay.
Draws against Bolivia and China PR. Also, the win against Hong Kong (low ranked AFC team) hurts Paraguay's average.

All these matches affect Paraguay's ranking.

It's based on wins, draws and losses not on achievements or near achievements. So Luis Suarez's handball really doesn't affect the ranking.

Ghana also suffer because they are part of CAF (considered by FIFA a weak confederation - their coefficient is only 0.86, compared to UEFA's 1 - that's another flaw in my opinion).

However, Ghana did drop points against Sudan in an AFCON qualifier and against Saudi Arabia in a friendly in the last 12 months. With two wins - they would be tied for 25th with Paraguay. Yes, there's also the Korea Republic loss - also World Cup participants. Let's add a win there too - Ghana would be 21st. Or 23rd with a draw.

"Initially, FIFA placed Wales higher, but an eagle-eyed Faroese student, Jakup Emil Hansen, calculated that his nation was actually 0.07 points better off."

Finally, with all due respect to Jakup, I was the one that spotted the 0.07 difference between Wales and Faroe Islands. More here and here.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup: CONCACAF round 2 sims

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Group A

El Salvador	93.1
Suriname	6.34
Dominican Republic	0.55
Cayman Islands	0.02

Group B

Trinidad and Tobago	79.24
Guyana	14.53
Barbados	4.44
Bermuda	1.8

Group C

Panama	99.07
Dominica	0.54
Nicaragua	0.39

Group D

Canada	97.75
St. Kitts and Nevis	1.89
St. Lucia	0.28
Puerto Rico	0.08

Group E

Guatemala	84.51
Grenada	10.18
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	4.71
Belize	0.61

Group F

Haiti	77.06
Antigua and Barbuda	21.01
Curacao	1.93
US Virgin Islands	0.01

Panama seem to have a clear path - moving to the next round in 99.07% of the 10000 simulations.
Haiti have the lowest percentage of all the group leaders (77.06), but still way ahead (56.05) of Antigua and Barbuda.

Puerto Rico might be underrated by Elo (at least looking at the Islanders). We'll see.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup: AFC round 3 sims

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Group A

China PR	88.93
Iraq	63.83
Jordan	39.98
Singapore	7.26

Group B

Korea Republic	98.1
Kuwait	72.98
United Arab Emirates	28.28
Lebanon	0.64

Group C

Japan	99.13
Uzbekistan	62.8
Korea DPR	34.61
Tajikistan	3.47

Group D

Australia	97.43
Saudi Arabia	55.46
Oman	37.36
Thailand	9.75

Group E

Iran	97.7
Qatar	48.5
Bahrain	42.84
Indonesia	10.96

Group of death seems to be Group E - with only 6.01 between Qatar and Bahrain.

In Group B, Kuwait heavily favored for 2nd spot - 44.7 ahead of United Arab Emirates.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

August 2011: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Solomon Islands	177	120	57
Canada	102	58	44
Wales	117	77	40
Iraq	109	70	39
New Caledonia	165	128	37
Tahiti	183	148	35
Kuwait	95	61	34
Syria	97	64	33
Vanuatu	162	129	33
Eritrea	189	158	31

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

US Virgin Islands	149	197	-48
Algeria	46	92	-46
Nepal	136	176	-40
Luxembourg	128	165	-37
Faroe Islands	111	147	-36
Bangladesh	139	175	-36
Sierra Leone	92	127	-35
Dominican Republic	133	168	-35
Cape Verde Islands	72	105	-33
Puerto Rico	144	177	-33

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Ecuador	66	37	29
Iran	53	30	23
Poland	65	42	23
China PR	69	47	22
Ukraine	48	29	19
Korea Republic	33	17	16
Romania	54	38	16
Scotland	55	42	13
Panama	62	49	13
Bulgaria	51	39	12

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Algeria	46	92	-46
Burkina Faso	40	71	-31
Slovakia	26	54	-28
Montenegro	19	44	-25
Slovenia	23	44	-21
Bosnia-Herzegovina	39	57	-18
Greece	14	30	-16
Belarus	41	56	-15
Belgium	37	51	-14
Denmark	21	33	-12

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Ecuador - Slovakia
Iran - Montenegro
Poland - Algeria
China PR - Albania
Ukraine - Slovenia
Korea Republic - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Romania - Burkina Faso
Scotland - Northern Ireland
Panama - Armenia
Bulgaria - Lithuania

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.