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Friday, September 2, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup: CONCACAF round 2 sims

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Group A

El Salvador 93.1
Suriname 6.34
Dominican Republic 0.55
Cayman Islands 0.02

Group B

Trinidad and Tobago 79.24
Guyana 14.53
Barbados 4.44
Bermuda 1.8

Group C

Panama 99.07
Dominica 0.54
Nicaragua 0.39

Group D

Canada 97.75
St. Kitts and Nevis 1.89
St. Lucia 0.28
Puerto Rico 0.08

Group E

Guatemala 84.51
Grenada 10.18
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 4.71
Belize 0.61

Group F

Haiti 77.06
Antigua and Barbuda 21.01
Curacao 1.93
US Virgin Islands 0.01

Panama seem to have a clear path - moving to the next round in 99.07% of the 10000 simulations.
Haiti have the lowest percentage of all the group leaders (77.06), but still way ahead (56.05) of Antigua and Barbuda.

Puerto Rico might be underrated by Elo (at least looking at the Islanders). We'll see.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.


  1. Edgar, thank you for the sims! Group favorites are even higher than I expected.

  2. I've heard that the Islanders have a lot of non-PR players, so they may not matter to the PR national team that much. But, yeah, them finishing last -- I don't know about that. Then again, but St. Lucia and SKN have solid teams. As the numbers indicate, there's not much difference between the three.

  3. The opening round of games in this region have been really surprisingly competitive!

  4. Elo singled out clear favourites and I don't expect any different in terms of points in the groups after all round ahve finished.