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Friday, September 16, 2011

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (16 September 2011)

Next update: 14 October 2011 or later.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

The qualifying format is already known: 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

Portugal replace Russia in the first pot.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Turkey and Serbia replace Ireland, Israel, Montenegro and Czech Republic in the second pot.
Romania and Finland replace Northern Ireland and Belgium in the third pot.
Estonia replace Bulgaria in the fourth pot.
Wales and Iceland replace Cyprus and Kazakhstan in the fifth pot.

Best movers:

10 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
9 - Estonia
8 - Hungary

Worst movers:

-8 - Slovakia and Czech Republic
-7 - Ireland
-6 - Montenegro

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

1  1 Netherlands        25947
 2  2 Spain              25659
 3  4 Italy              25522
 4  5 England            25225
 5  3 Germany            24659
 6  9 Croatia            23095
 7  6 Sweden             22282
 8  7 Greece             22254
 9 11 Portugal           21084
------------------------------
10 13 Denmark            20632
11 21 Bosnia-Herzegovina 20251
12 20 Hungary            19736
13  8 Russia             19126
14 18 Norway             18966
15 22 Turkey             18464
16 14 Ukraine            17951
17 24 Serbia             17274
18 10 Slovakia           17122
------------------------------
19 12 Ireland            17017
20 15 Israel             16730
21 27 Switzerland        16681
22 16 Montenegro         16631
23 28 Romania            16474
24 19 Slovenia           16466
25 17 Czech Republic     16078
26 29 Finland            15635
27 23 Belarus            15536
------------------------------
28 25 Northern Ireland   15041
29 26 Belgium            14931
30 39 Estonia            14879
31 36 Latvia             14664
32 30 Austria            13991
33 35 Armenia            13891
34 34 Scotland           13771
35 31 Poland             12751
36 33 Albania            12531
------------------------------
37 32 Bulgaria           12481
38 37 Georgia            12166
39 38 Lithuania          12150
40 44 Azerbaijan         11167
41 41 Macedonia          11100
42 40 Moldova            10247
43 47 Wales              10137
44 48 Iceland            10135
45 45 Liechtenstein       8870
------------------------------
46 42 Cyprus              8847
47 49 Luxembourg          8705
48 43 Kazakhstan          8521
49 46 Faroe Islands       8150
50 50 Malta               6174
51 51 Andorra             5240
52 52 San Marino          4140

11 comments:

  1. He he. That's right, Germany! We're better than you! :)

    Nah. It's just amusing. I'd be afraid of them if we faced them.

    England, masters of ranking systems! :)

    I don't understand how England are ahead of Germany though. They've been perfect in the qualifying group this time while England have not. They surpassed England in the World Cup, even beating England directly. England were only slightly better in World Cup qualifing (W9 L1 vs. W8 D2) How are England ahead?!

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'd say it was Finland earning two draws that did it.

    It's looking promising for Wales, we should end up in the 4th pot but I think there's a possibility of getting into the 3rd pot. Especially with Belarus, Georgia and Finland all being stuck in a 5 team group with France and Spain.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Don't forget Belarus bested France head to head this campaign. France are lucky Belarus couldn't take advantage of it. Kind of like Scotland in Euro 2008 qualifying. France have all the luck, Ireland had them in 2010 qualifying and they cheated to win.

    ReplyDelete
  4. How Finland get those 15635 points?

    WC 2010, 10 games, 280014 points, average 28001,4 weighting 20% = 5600,28

    EURO 2012, 8 games 170515 points, average 21314,38 weighting 40% = 8525,75

    Together 14126

    What I do wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think Edgar may have made a mistake here. (Very rare for him!)

    As above for Finland, similar differences exist e.g. for Belarus and Northern Ireland.

    Belarus:
    WC 2010 232519 points 23252 average 20% weighting 4650
    Euro2012 210506 points 23390 average 40% weighting 9356
    total 14006

    NI:
    WC 2010 252013 points 25201 average 20% weighting 5040
    Euro2012 170008 points 21251 average 40% weighting 8500
    total 13541

    However, if I play around with my inputs when I deduct two matches from Euro2012 qualification I get the same points as Edgar.

    (I.e. Finland and Northern Ireland would have played 6 matches instead of 8, and Belarus 7 instead of 9. The number of wins, draws and goals kept same.)

    So could you, Edgar, please check that your inputs and formulae are correct.

    (P.S. Thanks for excellent blog!)

    ReplyDelete
  6. When will the draw be made and which ranking will be actual at that time?

    ReplyDelete
  7. How can Italy be in front of Germany? Germany were better at the WC 2010 and have a better record for EQ games. Don't understand that.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I don't understand either, that what I get

    Italy WC 2010, 13 games, 413023 points, av 31771, weighting 0,2 = 6354,20
    Italy EU 2012, 8 games, 307516 points, av 38439,50, weighting 0,4 = 15375,80
    Italy total = 21730

    Germany WC 2010, 17 games, 687042 points, av 40414,24, weighting 0,2 = 8082,85
    Germany EU 2012, 8 games, 331528 points, wv 41441, weighting 0,4 = 16576,40
    Germany total = 24659,25

    ReplyDelete
  9. @Dönci: The draw will take place at least after the 2014 World Cup qualifiers have been completed, my guess will be somewehere at the beginning of 2014.

    The ranking will consist of the 2010 World Cup qualifying and final tournament results (20%), the Euro2012 qualifying and final tournament results (40%) and the 2014 World Cup qualifiying results (40%).

    ReplyDelete
  10. Ha ha, I hadn't even thought about Italy! Germany's record is better than England's and England are in front. England's record is better than Italy's and Italy are in front. What's going on?!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Tiksa found the answer. I didn't include remaining matches as losses. Will do in the next update.

    So this is just like the World-Results.net ranking (if Homer would have one for the 2016 draw).

    Tobcoach - thanks for the help!

    ReplyDelete