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Monday, September 12, 2011

EURO 2012: Final draw coefficients (12 September 2011)

Next update: 14 October 2011

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 final draw will take into account results from:

EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

Hosts Poland (23806) and Ukraine (28029) will be seeded for the final draw, along with 2008 winners, Spain and the team with the best coefficient of the qualified teams - most likely the Netherlands.

Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands have already qualified.

The ranking computed after the October qualifiers will be used to seed the teams for the EURO 2012 play-offs.

Best movers:

4 - Scotland, Estonia and Armenia
3 - Serbia, Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Latvia
2 - Turkey, Switzerland, Iceland and Luxembourg

Worst movers:

-5 - Israel
-4 - Montenegro and Abalnia
-3 - Slovenia and Northern Ireland

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points

1  1 Spain              40016
 2  2 Netherlands        39660
 3  3 Germany            37966
 4  5 England            33063
 5  4 Italy              32697
 6  7 Croatia            31523
 7  6 Russia             30671
 8  8 Greece             29995
 9  9 Portugal           29677
10 10 Sweden             29235
11 11 France             28848
12 12 Denmark            28105
13 16 Serbia             27595
14 13 Slovakia           26654
15 14 Czech Republic     26456
16 18 Turkey             26421
17 19 Switzerland        26245
18 17 Ireland            25743
19 22 Hungary            25710
20 15 Israel             25702
21 21 Norway             25543
22 25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 25498
23 20 Slovenia           24423
24 24 Finland            24293
25 26 Romania            24168
26 23 Northern Ireland   23039
27 31 Scotland           22951
28 28 Belarus            22238
29 27 Bulgaria           22214
30 33 Latvia             21985
31 30 Austria            21586
32 32 Belgium            21319
33 29 Montenegro         21313
34 34 Lithuania          19781
35 39 Estonia            19134
36 37 Wales              18557
37 41 Armenia            18506
38 36 Macedonia          18424
39 35 Albania            17564
40 38 Cyprus             16636
41 40 Georgia            16582
42 44 Iceland            15392
43 42 Moldova            15162
44 45 Azerbaijan         15011
45 43 Kazakhstan         14298
46 48 Luxembourg         13245
47 46 Liechtenstein      13030
48 47 Faroe Islands      12176
49 49 Malta              10679
50 50 Andorra             8627
51 51 San Marino          7642

If the teams with the best coefficient qualify the final draw pot would look like this:

Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot 2: Germany, England, Italy, Croatia
Pot 3: Russia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: France, Denmark, Serbia, Czech Republic

Croatia replace Russia in the second pot.
Serbia replace Slovakia in the fourth pot.

29 comments:

  1. Nice to see England still holding on to the 4th place in this ranking. I'm looking forward to the San Marino games in World Cup qualifying. They ought to pad our ranking in this system very nicely.

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  2. can the netherlands survive a loss or draw in their last 2 games and still maintain #2, assuming germany wins out?


    im worried about their last game, away in sweden. they might not show up

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  3. Strickly speaking guys, Slovakia in theory should be in there ahead of their neighbours Czech Republic based on the number crunching, I know Armenia has a better chance, but Slovakia are not mathematically out.

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  4. According to current (estimated) Elo rankings, this draw pot could in principal create a group of death with Spain (ranked 1), Germany (3), Portugal (8) and France (14), and a group of life with Poland (39), Italy (11), Greece (28) and Czechia (32).

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  5. Switch Croatia with italy and u get group of life(how stupid this sounds)

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  6. Edgar, why are you counting in the unplayed mathes, giving 10000 points to each team? Wouldn't it be better to leave them out completely (0 pts and -2 matches played)? The point differences between the teams would then be more telling of what the final ranking will look like.

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  7. If Hungary get more points against Finland than Sweden do vs. Finland away and Holland at home, Hungary get to the playoff instead of the Scandinavians. Let's hope the Dutch give their best.

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  8. To answer EB, I wouldn't worry. If we win the game against Moldova at home then our number 2 position is safe. We could then quite safely lose 20-0 to Sweden in the last game. If the Germans draw away in Turkey then Holland can afford to lose both games by 1-0.

    And to answer MV, I always do the calculation as you suggest: http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html

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  9. @MV

    Because at the start of a new cycle the ranking looks strange - for instance in August 2008, Kazakhstan - Andorra 3 - 0 was the first and only WCQ played in Europe. With the system you're suggesting (and Homer is using on World-Results.net) Kazakhstan would have been top of the table. That's why I use this method.

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  10. That's a bad example. There isn't even any need to calculate new standings with only one match played. Or before the first round is finished, with every team playing at least a game. But I understand what you mean. Many teams would have a 40000 pts average after the first round. You think this is bad, but I think it's good. The point differences between the teams would be bigger and progress would be much more visible, and the whole process of calculating the standings would then have more sense.

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  11. I like this approach (although it wasn't my idea), because the values won't fluctuate wildly after each round.

    But thanks to Homer, there's always World-Results.net for those that don't like the way I compute the coefficient. ;)

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  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  14. Can Ireland jump any of the following with a win against Armenia : Turkey, Czech Republic or Serbia (and these teams winning as well)? Would a draw somehow be enough? Inquiring minds would like to know

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  15. Coop:

    Ireland are currently ahead of both Turkey and Czech Republic (source http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html ) If Ireland win by one goal against Armenia, then my calculations suggest the Czech Republic would need to win by 11 goals and Turkey would need to win by 32 goals to pass Ireland.

    Serbia only need a draw in the last match to stay ahead of Ireland in the rankings (but a draw isn't enough for them to finish 2nd as they would then lose on head-to-head to Estonia)

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  16. Thanks for the info Haakon. Do you happen to know what would happen if Ireland draw? Would Turk and Czech be able to jump them? If so Trap better go for the W tomorrow ... though he probably won't

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  17. One Question: Will the results of the Playoffs count for the rankings used for the finals draw? I know the ranking system and the problem is, that the teams qualified per winning a playoff can get a better position (in best case: two more wins) in the rankings as teams that have qualified directly and don't have the chance to push up their coefficient. Wouldn't that be unfair?
    I hope you've understood my English because I come from Germany but I didn't find a better place to ask this question.

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  18. @Coop: possible points for Ireland

    with a win: 28,203 (add 20 per goal)
    with a draw: 27,383
    with a loss: 26,963 (subtract 20 per goal)

    The Czechs are on 27,906 with a 1-goal win against Lithuania. Turkey are on 27,621 with a 1-goal win. (And Serbia finish on 29,215 with a 1-goal win.)

    ----

    @Simon: Yes, the play-offs count (see the twitter account FootballRanks which is run by our webmaster Edgar) but because of the averaging of points per match, the system demands a strong performance in the play-offs for rankings to improve to the point where it matters. If Croatia win their play-off with a win and a draw, for example, their ranking only improves by 200 points. And very few teams win both legs in the play-offs.

    Also, the play-offs are very important matches for both teams and any good ranking system should try to consider all competitive matches a team has played.

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  19. @ Haakon

    You get bonus points for playffs too, don't you? Does that include those too in your calculation?

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  20. @Lorric

    Well thought of, but yes I did :p

    An easy way to illustrate why the ranking goes up: Croatia has 32346 points now which means 2.23 points per match (excluding all bonuses and subtracting the 10000 points for a loss). Play-offs carry 6000 points bonus - that is 0.6 per match - so they would need to get more than 4.46 - 1.2 = 3.26 points per match to improve their ranking.

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  21. You the man (or woman) Haakon. I'm e-mailing the FAI to make sure they know about this, haha

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  22. One last question ... Bosnia wouldn't jump Ireland with a draw @ France and an Ireland win over Armenia, would they? Wouldn't think so, but just wanted to make sure.

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  23. Coop: a draw puts Bosnia on 27,198. Well behind Ireland.

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  24. also don't forget that if Ireland lose, Armenia would be on the play-offs instead

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  25. armenia,estonia,scotland,b&h,belguim & norway are
    Not gonna get through!

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  26. i looked on wiki euro 2012 q and it says that denmark are at least in the play offs,norway ca'nt win group and portugal nothing how is this possible????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

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  27. @Haakon

    Thanks for answering Coop and Lorric.

    @Anonymous

    Head to head results.

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  28. I am hoping for the following group:

    Poland
    England
    Russia
    Ireland

    This would be fantastic!!!

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