2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

Last week the match days five and six of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2 and after MD4.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete remaining match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.

FIFA ranking: September 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday September 21st. This final preview contains 165 matches, out of 182 matches played since July 17th.

Eritrea played their last official match 4 years ago in September 2019. They are excluded from the ranking from now on, until they have played again. Eritrea is participating in African qualifying for the World Cup 2026, with the first round scheduled for November.

CAF qualification World Cup 2026: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

The match schedule for the group stage matches in African qualification for the World Cup 2026 is finally released, so now I'm able to simulate the process. The format is very simple: all 54 African teams are divided in 9 groups of 6 teams and the 9 group winners qualify for the World Cup.

The 4 best ranked group runners-up will qualify for a play-off, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a one-off final to determine the CAF representation in the IPO. The seeding for this play-off is unknown yet. It could be a completely free draw, or seeding according to the prevailing FIFA ranking or to the ranking of the 4 participants based on group results and then 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.

This play-off will be played anyway in November 2025.

CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24: 10.000 simulations (August 2023)

The upcoming September window starts a new edition of the CONCACAF Nations League. It will be the third edition and follows only one year after the previous one. It is used as qualification tournament for the Copa America 2024, the South American continental final tournament, which is in 2024 co-organized by CONCACAF (and hosted in the USA) and will be expanded to 16 teams, the 10 from CONMEBOL and 6 CONCACAF teams. It is still not clear if this is a one-off co-operation or the first of a real Americas Cup. Time will tell.

FIFA ranking: September 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable September 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday September 21st. In the upcoming September window matches for the following tournaments will be played:

- the final match day in African Nations Cup 2023 qualification. Of the 24 berths for the final tournament in January next year in Cote d'Ivoire 16 are already decided, still 8 to go;

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage starts with match days 1 and 2;

- match days 5 and 6 of qualification for EURO 2024;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026 starts, this time in South America with match days 1 and 2 in the group;

- lots of friendlies, featuring f.i. most Asian teams and the top 4 CONCACAF teams that got a bye to the league A quarter finals in November.

FIFA ranking: September 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 180 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including September 17th, used to calculate the September 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since July 17th, (probably) counting for the September ranking, are presented.

Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (August 2023)

The qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 start this September window in South America, in October in Asia and in November in Africa. Next year's March sees the first qualification matches in CONCACAF while UEFA only starts in March 2025. For OFC the qualification format and schedule is unknown yet.

The World Cup 2026 in USA, Mexico and Canada has been expanded from 32 to 48 berths. Here is the distribution of berths amongst the confederations:

	direct slots			play-off slots
Confederation	2026	2022	growth	2026	2022
AFC	8	5	60%	1	1
CAF	9	5	80%	1	0
CONCACAF	6	3	100%	2	1
CONMEBOL	6	4	50%	1	1
OFC	1	0	-	1	1
UEFA	16	13	23%	0	0
total	46	30	53%	6	4