Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (23 September 2016)
TwitterLinked In

Friday, July 3, 2009

2010 WC: Seeding formula based on current standings (1 July 2009)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.

Qualified teams determined using the current standings and the FIFA rankings.

Slovakia/Mexico/Algeria replace Northern Ireland/Uruguay/Zambia.
 1 Brazil         59.7 29.3 30.3
2 Germany 59.3 30.3 29.0
3 Italy 56.7 27.3 29.3
4 Spain 56.0 25.3 30.7
5 England 51.7 26.3 25.3
6 Argentina 49.0 21.0 28.0
7 France 48.3 23.3 25.0
--------------------------------
8 Netherlands 43.3 14.7 28.7
9 Mexico 36.3 19.3 17.0
10 USA 35.0 13.7 21.3
11 Switzerland 33.0 15.3 17.7
12 Paraguay 31.3 11.7 19.7
13 Ghana 27.3 13.3 14.0
14 Russia 26.7 3.0 23.7
15 Australia 26.0 11.3 14.7
16 Japan 25.3 13.3 12.0
17 Korea Republic 25.0 15.7 9.3
18 Denmark 23.3 7.7 15.7
19 Greece 23.3 0.0 23.3
20 Serbia 23.0 5.3 17.7
21 Cote d'Ivoire 22.0 6.0 16.0
22 Scotland 17.0 0.0 17.0
23 Costa Rica 16.0 8.3 7.7
24 Tunisia 15.7 8.7 7.0
25 Saudi Arabia 13.0 8.0 5.0
26 Chile 13.0 0.0 13.0
27 Honduras 9.0 0.0 9.0
28 Slovakia 7.3 0.0 7.3
29 Gabon 6.0 0.0 6.0
30 South Africa 5.7 3.0 2.7
31 Algeria 4.0 0.0 4.0
32 Korea DPR 1.0 0.0 1.0
Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

Now it's get interesting (well, at least for some people). With Mexico winning the play-off against Ecuador, the teams from the last two pots break down this way:

CONCACAF 4
CONMEBOL 2
AFC 5
CAF 5

I really don't know what FIFA will do, but I will explain my choice:

1. I think FIFA will keep in the same pot the confederations that also have seeded teams (i.e. CAF and CONMEBOL). They did the same thing in 2002 (see Wikipedia).

2. In 2006, FIFA used the FIFA rankings, not the seeding table when they chose Serbia and Montenegro for the special pot (see Wikipedia).

3. I think CAF + CONMEBOL is seen as a stronger combination than CONCACAF + AFC, that's why I chose the highest ranking AFC + CONCACAF team for the special pot.

With this in mind, these are the pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Russia, Scotland, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia
Pot 4: Algeria, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon, Ghana, Paraguay, Tunisia
Special pot: USA

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Serbia, Australia, Chile
Group B: Germany, Russia, Mexico, Ghana
Group C: England, Greece, Korea DPR, USA
Group D: Brazil, Switzerland, Korea Republic, Algeria
Group E: Spain, Scotland, Honduras, Paraguay
Group F: Italy, Netherlands, Japan, Gabon
Group G: France, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, Cote d'Ivoire
Group H: Argentina, Slovakia, Costa Rica, Tunisia

4 comments:

  1. How do you assign points in the FIFA rankings when two countries are tied?

    Costa Rica and Gabon for example. They are tied for 30th but it looks like CRC was assigned 13 points for July 09 and Gabon was assigned 12 points in your seeding rankings.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The country displayed first in the FIFA Ranking gets the most points. If you look at the July 2009 FIFA Ranking, Costa Rica are above Gabon.
    That's how FIFA did in 2006 and 2002.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I agree with your estimation,
    but the following distribution would be more balanced.

    Pot 3: Chile, Paraguay, Mexico, USA, Australia, Korea Republic, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire

    Pot 4: Costa Rica, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Gabon, Tunisia

    Additional condition is, that two countries from the same association cannot be joined into the same group.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Tarjidin,

    The only problem with your distribution is that FIFA have to come up with a mathematical formula to back this up.

    ReplyDelete