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Friday, September 21, 2012

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (21 September 2012)

Next update: October 2012.

Updated to include missing 11 September matches. Thanks Ed!

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.


The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.


Best movers:

6 - Poland
5 - Switzerland and Montenegro

4 - Bosnia-Herzegovina

Worst movers:
 

-4 - Slovenia
-3 - Belarus and Latvia
-2 - Ukraine, Hungary, Norway, Scotland, Finland, Austria, Estonia and Wales


Switzerland replaced Norway in the second pot.
Armenia and Poland replaced Scotland and Belarus in the third pot. 

Bulgaria replaced Wales in the fourth pot.

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

 1  1 Spain               33407
 2  2 Germany             32124
 3  3 Netherlands         29260
 4  4 Italy               27982
 5  6 Portugal            27311
 6  5 England             27244
 7  7 Russia              26365
 8  8 Greece              25900
 9  9 Croatia             24921
-------------------------------
10 11 Sweden              24368
11 10 Denmark             23559
12 16 Bosnia-Herzegovina  23535
13 12 Czech Republic      22554
14 14 Republic of Ireland 22373
15 13 Ukraine             22251
16 21 Switzerland         22231
17 15 Hungary             22221
18 18 Serbia              21944
-------------------------------
19 17 Norway              21781
20 19 Slovakia            21752
21 23 Turkey              20634
22 25 Romania             20541
23 22 Israel              20061
24 20 Slovenia            19714
25 24 Belgium             19691
26 29 Armenia             18881
27 33 Poland              18783
-------------------------------
28 26 Scotland            18713
29 34 Montenegro          18691
30 27 Belarus             17796
31 28 Latvia              17691
32 30 Finland             17576
33 31 Austria             17551
34 32 Estonia             17367
35 36 Northern Ireland    16921
36 37 Bulgaria            16711
-------------------------------
37 35 Wales               16631
38 38 Albania             15991
39 41 Georgia             15940
40 39 FYR Macedonia       15135
41 40 Lithuania           15025
42 44 Iceland             14196
43 42 Moldova             13861
44 43 Azerbaijan          13721
45 45 Cyprus              13636
-------------------------------
46 47 Luxembourg          12410
47 46 Kazakhstan          12201
48 48 Faroe Islands       11790
49 49 Liechtenstein       11660
50 50 Malta                9940
51 51 Andorra              8980
52 52 San Marino           8360

10 comments:

  1. How you have calculate "2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting" for this ranking? What is included?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I already add the 10000 points for each of the remaining matches and divide by the total number of games each team will play in its group.

      Delete
  2. How are Hungary where they are. I dont recall them being in any playoffs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Consistency - 16 points in the 2010 WCQ, 19 in the 2012 ECQ.

      Delete
  3. Edgar,

    please, can you enlighten me with regard to your calculation results. I know you include all group matches in the WC14Q each team has to play, where the not yet played group matches count for 10.000 pts.

    With that in mind I look at the Netherlands:
    WC10 : 691529 in 15 matches => avg 46102
    EC12 : 440039 in 13 matches => avg 33849
    WC14Q: (82506+80000) in 2+8 matches => avg 16251
    Total: 20%*46102 + 40%*33849 + 40%*16251 = 29.260 pts
    You calculate 28.000 pts.

    Where do I go wrong ?

    ReplyDelete
  4. With some reverse engineering I come to the conclusion that you only included the first matchday (against Turkey) in your results (and left out the second matchday against Hungary):
    41002+90000 in 1+9 matches played => avg 13100
    Total: 20%*46102 + 40%*33849 + 40%*13100 = 28.000 pts

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think all of the Sept 11 matches are missing.

      Delete
    2. It's fixed now. Thanks guys!

      Delete
  5. Replies
    1. France are the host so don't need to qualify.

      Delete