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Wednesday, January 6, 2021

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

Only a single match was played in the Asian qualification for the World Cup last year. The last four match days of the second round are rescheduled now for the coming March and June windows. After the Summer round three, consisting of 2 groups of 6 teams, will commence. The 12 qualified teams will be put in 6 pots of two. Which FIFA ranking (June or July) is used for seeding is yet unknown, because the publication schedule for 2021 is not yet published.

The AFC managed to keep the same qualification format. The matches for round three are now scheduled from September until March 2022. And the next step -where the Asian number 5 is determined between the two group numbers 3- is scheduled in June 2022 as a single match now. In that same June window the interconfederational play-offs (with the Asian number 5) are staged.


See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup of Nations 2023 in China.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Syria

89,65

10,34

0,01

0,00

0,00

China PR

10,35

85,86

3,77

0,02

0,00

Philippines

0,00

3,76

94,44

1,80

0,00

Maldives

0,00

0,04

1,78

98,15

0,03

Guam

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,03

99,97

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Australia

99,40

0,59

0,01

0,00

0,00

Kuwait

0,37

61,05

38,58

0,00

0,00

Jordan

0,23

38,36

61,39

0,02

0,00

Nepal

0,00

0,00

0,02

92,94

7,04

Chinese Taipei

0,00

0,00

0,00

7,04

92,96

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Iran

55,00

30,02

14,95

0,03

0,00

Iraq

38,21

50,04

11,75

0,00

0,00

Bahrain

6,79

19,92

73,24

0,05

0,00

Hong Kong

0,00

0,02

0,06

99,91

0,01

Cambodia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

99,99

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Saudi Arabia

70,82

26,94

2,03

0,13

0,08

Uzbekistan

28,96

68,20

2,38

0,44

0,02

Palestine

0,10

3,01

70,57

18,07

8,25

Singapore

0,11

1,46

16,17

63,36

18,90

Yemen

0,01

0,39

8,85

18,00

72,75

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Qatar

65,16

34,84

0,00

0,00

0,00

Oman

34,84

65,14

0,02

0,00

0,00

India

0,00

0,01

60,59

33,46

5,94

Afghanistan

0,00

0,01

35,44

51,28

13,27

Bangladesh

0,00

0,00

3,95

15,26

80,79

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Japan

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kyrgyzstan

0,00

51,16

47,14

1,69

0,01

Tajikistan

0,00

45,59

50,59

3,81

0,01

Myanmar

0,00

3,25

2,25

93,74

0,76

Mongolia

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,76

99,22

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Vietnam

49,99

33,74

13,31

2,96

0,00

United Arab Emirates

34,97

28,55

25,69

10,79

0,00

Thailand

12,24

30,65

41,25

15,84

0,02

Malaysia

2,80

7,06

19,75

70,39

0,00

Indonesia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,02

99,98

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Korea Republic

99,11

0,76

0,12

0,01

0,00

Korea DPR

0,36

53,17

34,01

12,46

0,00

Lebanon

0,33

28,70

37,95

33,02

0,00

Turkmenistan

0,20

17,37

27,92

54,51

0,00

Sri Lanka

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00


The probabilities to qualify for the third round in WCq (numbers 1 from each group plus the best 4 group runners-up; when Qatar is among those teams the fifth best runner-up also qualifies as their replacement):

Japan

100,00

Australia

99,99

Syria

99,98

Korea Republic

99,70

Oman

98,23

China PR

92,69

Iraq

87,17

Saudi Arabia

86,78

Iran

84,49

Vietnam

70,43

Uzbekistan

60,14

United Arab Emirates

51,29

Kuwait

50,68

Jordan

33,60

Thailand

26,18

Bahrain

25,63

Korea DPR

11,51

Lebanon

7,54

Malaysia

5,57

Turkmenistan

3,09

Philippines

2,76

Kyrgyzstan

1,41

Tajikistan

0,91

Singapore

0,11

Palestine

0,10

Myanmar

0,01

Yemen

0,01

India

0,00

Afghanistan

0,00

Maldives

0,00

Guam

0,00

Nepal

0,00

Chinese Taipei

0,00

Hong Kong

0,00

Cambodia

0,00

Qatar

0,00

Bangladesh

0,00

Mongolia

0,00

Indonesia

0,00

Sri Lanka

0,00


The probability to qualify for round three as one of the best four (or five) group runners-up per group:

group E

95,28

group A

90,31

group C

88,17

group B

67,40

group G

27,42

group D

24,42

group H

6,02

group F

0,98


The seeding pots for the draw of the third qualification round. The teams are ordered by weighted average ranking position after round two is finished:


team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

pot 5

pot 6

Japan

99,82

0,18

0

0

0

0

Iran

84,47

0,02

0

0

0

0

Korea Republic

13,16

86,54

0

0

0

0

Australia

2,55

97,44

0

0

0

0

Saudi Arabia

0

8,38

73,35

5,04

0,01

0

Iraq

0

6,59

57,88

22,63

0,07

0

China PR

0

0,50

38,40

46,00

7,79

0

Syria

0

0

6,32

47,44

44,93

1,29

Oman

0

0

1,57

41,89

52,74

2,03

United Arab Emirates

0

0,35

22,30

28,49

0,15

0,00

Vietnam

0

0

0

0,29

27,88

42,26

Uzbekistan

0

0

0,18

7,91

42,40

9,65

Kuwait

0

0

0

0

0

50,68

Jordan

0

0

0

0,04

5,21

28,35

Bahrain

0

0

0

0,15

12,18

13,30

Thailand

0

0

0

0

1,47

24,71

Korea DPR

0

0

0

0

0,43

11,08

Lebanon

0

0

0

0,11

3,90

3,53

Malaysia

0

0

0

0

0,01

5,56

Turkmenistan

0

0

0

0

0,04

3,05

Philippines

0

0

0

0

0,11

2,65

Kyrgyzstan

0

0

0

0,01

0,63

0,77

Tajikistan

0

0

0

0

0,03

0,88

Palestine

0

0

0

0

0,02

0,08

Singapore

0

0

0

0

0

0,11

Yemen

0

0

0

0

0

0,01

Myanmar

0

0

0

0

0

0,01


The probabilities to qualify for the AFC Cup of Nations 2023 in China - 1 to 12:

Japan

100,00

Australia

99,99

Syria

99,93

Qatar

99,71

Korea Republic

99,42

Oman

95,57

China PR

88,20

Iraq

84,40

Iran

81,75

Saudi Arabia

80,35

Vietnam

61,88

Uzbekistan

43,85

United Arab Emirates

43,53

Kuwait

40,08

Jordan

27,33

Bahrain

22,02

Thailand

18,42

Malaysia

3,59

Korea DPR

3,22

Lebanon

2,31

Philippines

2,18

Turkmenistan

1,07

Kyrgyzstan

0,59

Tajikistan

0,39

Singapore

0,11

Palestine

0,10

Yemen

0,01



To qualify for the Asian third qualification round - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group):

Tajikistan

99,49

Kyrgyzstan

99,28

Turkmenistan

98,89

Lebanon

97,69

Philippines

97,64

Korea DPR

96,78

Malaysia

96,40

Palestine

88,68

Thailand

81,54

Bahrain

77,98

Jordan

72,67

India

71,27

Singapore

68,70

Kuwait

59,92

United Arab Emirates

56,31

Uzbekistan

56,13

Afghanistan

49,92

Myanmar

48,67

Vietnam

38,12

Maldives

35,99

Yemen

24,85

Saudi Arabia

19,56

Iran

18,25

Iraq

15,60

Hong Kong

13,28

China PR

11,80

Nepal

5,72

Bangladesh

5,06

Oman

4,43

Korea Republic

0,58

Qatar

0,29

Mongolia

0,15

Syria

0,07

Chinese Taipei

0,05

Indonesia

0,02

Australia

0,01

Guam

0,01

Japan

0,00

Cambodia

0,00

Sri Lanka

0,00



To qualify for the play-offs for the Asian third qualification round - 29 (or 30) to 40:

Cambodia

100,00

Sri Lanka

100,00

Guam

99,99

Indonesia

99,98

Chinese Taipei

99,95

Mongolia

99,85

Bangladesh

94,94

Nepal

94,28

Hong Kong

86,72

Yemen

75,14

Maldives

64,01

Myanmar

51,33

Afghanistan

50,08

Singapore

31,19

India

28,73

Palestine

11,22

Philippines

0,18

United Arab Emirates

0,16

Kyrgyzstan

0,13

Tajikistan

0,12

Saudi Arabia

0,09

Turkmenistan

0,04

Thailand

0,04

Uzbekistan

0,02

Malaysia

0,01



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

8 comments:


  1. The most important match for determining who will come out of the second places, including for Uzbekistan, is the Kuwait-Jordan match

    ReplyDelete
  2. FIFA has published the publication dates of their ranking for this year:
    Feb 18 - could be scheduled one week earlier to still include complete African Nations Championship;
    Apr 15 - could be scheduled one week earlier to still include the complete March window;
    May 27 - strange, scheduled before the extended June window starts at May 31st. There are no matches scheduled between this ranking and the previous one. I would have expected June 10th for a June ranking and no May ranking at all;
    Aug 12 - strange, I would have expected a mid July date after the EURO and Copa America are finished. Now also the complete Gold Cup is included. Already some 230, mostly high-valued matches will now count for this ranking;
    Sep 16 - as expected;
    Oct 21 - as expected;
    Nov 25 - as expected;
    Dec 16 - as expected.

    Obviously with this scheme, the draw for the third round of Asian qualifying will be based on the August ranking then.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But Ed, if we take FIFA qualifiers schedule. Asia might start the 3rd round in July.

      They need 10 dates.

      4 in July.
      2 in September.
      2 in October.
      2 in November.

      2 in March for playoffs to determine the team for June inter confederation playoffs.

      Delete
    2. No Gabriel, the qualifiers must be played in designated FIFA match windows and there is no window in July. Only the June window is already extended to be able to play 4 match days in the two weeks between May 31st and June 15th. And in that period the last second round qualifiers in Asia will be played.
      The next available window is the September window.

      Delete
  3. And for your information: for all confederations except UEFA, FIFA has added an extra window for 2 match days in January 2022. CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and AFC certainly needed that extra window to finish their qualification in time for the June 2022 play-offs.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Most of the March AFC qualifiers have been postponed and the remaining 2nd round matches will be played in a single country in June to complete this stage.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Also I am a little surprised that Qatar withdrew as their WCQ matches could have been switched around to be played on 3 and 7 June before heading to Copa.

    I assume the Qatari withdrawal therefore may be partially due to safety concerns or not wanting to have a lopsided 11 team competition.

    ReplyDelete