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Wednesday, January 6, 2021

CONMEBOL qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

CONMEBOL started with their World Cup qualifiers. They played 4 MD's in October and November last year.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete qualifying campaign for CONMEBOL teams, including the complete Copa America 2021 (now scheduled for this June) along the road -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


You can find previous qualification simulation results here.

First the Copa America. This is the first edition in a new format of 2 groups of 6 teams instead of the awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Now simply the group numbers 1 to 4 qualify for the quarter finals. There are again 2 guests, this time Qatar and Australia as the last two Asian Champions.


The group results, ordered by average group position: 

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Argentina

64,75

23,25

8,12

2,82

0,93

0,13

Uruguay

23,27

37,50

20,70

11,46

5,34

1,73

Chile

6,22

17,22

27,08

24,04

17,27

8,17

Paraguay

3,84

13,26

22,68

25,89

22,18

12,15

Australia

1,52

7,04

15,81

23,59

30,22

21,82

Bolivia

0,40

1,73

5,61

12,20

24,06

56,00

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Brazil

64,91

23,58

7,80

2,55

0,96

0,20

Colombia

24,98

40,15

19,04

9,90

4,46

1,47

Ecuador

4,06

13,86

24,97

24,63

20,91

11,57

Venezuela

3,19

10,33

21,90

25,56

23,95

15,07

Peru

2,68

10,30

20,30

24,26

25,88

16,58

Qatar

0,18

1,78

5,99

13,10

23,84

55,11



To qualify for the quarter finals:

Argentina

98,94

Brazil

98,84

Colombia

94,07

Uruguay

92,93

Chile

74,56

Ecuador

67,52

Paraguay

65,67

Venezuela

60,98

Peru

57,54

Australia

47,96

Qatar

21,05

Bolivia

19,94


To qualify for the semi finals (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the quarter finals):

Brazil

88,60

[89,64]

Argentina

81,65

[82,52]

Colombia

64,00

[68,03]

Uruguay

55,97

[60,23]

Ecuador

24,62

[36,46]

Chile

22,00

[29,51]

Venezuela

18,85

[30,91]

Peru

17,59

[30,57]

Paraguay

15,62

[23,79]

Australia

7,11

[14,82]

Qatar

2,44

[11,59]

Bolivia

1,55

[7,77]


To qualify for the final (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the semi finals):

Brazil

67,15

[75,79]

Argentina

64,14

[78,55]

Colombia

25,40

[39,69]

Uruguay

20,57

[36,75]

Ecuador

5,60

[22,75]

Chile

4,85

[22,05]

Venezuela

4,02

[21,33]

Peru

3,64

[20,69]

Paraguay

3,19

[20,42]

Australia

0,96

[13,50]

Qatar

0,32

[13,11]

Bolivia

0,16

[10,32]


To win the Copa America (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the final):

Brazil

51,72

[77,02]

Argentina

19,91

[31,04]

Colombia

16,42

[64,65]

Uruguay

6,62

[32,18]

Ecuador

1,58

[28,21]

Chile

1,14

[23,51]

Venezuela

0,98

[24,38]

Paraguay

0,74

[23,20]

Peru

0,69

[18,96]

Australia

0,15

[15,63]

Qatar

0,04

[12,50]

Bolivia

0,01

[6,25]


Then the probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5:

team

nrs. 1-4

nr. 5

Brazil

99,04

0,63

Argentina

86,57

6,83

Uruguay

71,62

11,99

Ecuador

49,29

16,95

Colombia

37,19

18,75

Chile

17,89

13,15

Paraguay

15,77

12,03

Venezuela

13,71

10,85

Peru

8,60

8,27

Bolivia

0,32

0,55


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

3 comments:

  1. the withdrawal of Qatar and Australia means Copa will either need to replace them with 2 new teams or go ahead with only 10 teams and 10 less matches.

    If going ahead with 10 teams I would prefer top 2 rather than top 4 to qualify otherwise the group stage becomes fairly meaningless other than trying to avoid 4th spot to avoid the top team in the other group.

    ReplyDelete