CONMEBOL started with their World Cup qualifiers. They played 4 MD's in October and November last year.
Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete qualifying campaign for CONMEBOL teams, including the complete Copa America 2021 (now scheduled for this June) along the road -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.
You can find previous qualification simulation results here.
First the Copa America. This is the first edition in a new format of 2 groups of 6 teams instead of the awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Now simply the group numbers 1 to 4 qualify for the quarter finals. There are again 2 guests, this time Qatar and Australia as the last two Asian Champions.
The group results, ordered by average group position:
|
group A |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
|
Argentina |
64,75 |
23,25 |
8,12 |
2,82 |
0,93 |
0,13 |
|
Uruguay |
23,27 |
37,50 |
20,70 |
11,46 |
5,34 |
1,73 |
|
Chile |
6,22 |
17,22 |
27,08 |
24,04 |
17,27 |
8,17 |
|
Paraguay |
3,84 |
13,26 |
22,68 |
25,89 |
22,18 |
12,15 |
|
Australia |
1,52 |
7,04 |
15,81 |
23,59 |
30,22 |
21,82 |
|
Bolivia |
0,40 |
1,73 |
5,61 |
12,20 |
24,06 |
56,00 |
|
group B |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
|
Brazil |
64,91 |
23,58 |
7,80 |
2,55 |
0,96 |
0,20 |
|
Colombia |
24,98 |
40,15 |
19,04 |
9,90 |
4,46 |
1,47 |
|
Ecuador |
4,06 |
13,86 |
24,97 |
24,63 |
20,91 |
11,57 |
|
Venezuela |
3,19 |
10,33 |
21,90 |
25,56 |
23,95 |
15,07 |
|
Peru |
2,68 |
10,30 |
20,30 |
24,26 |
25,88 |
16,58 |
|
Qatar |
0,18 |
1,78 |
5,99 |
13,10 |
23,84 |
55,11 |
To qualify for the quarter finals:
|
Argentina |
98,94 |
|
Brazil |
98,84 |
|
Colombia |
94,07 |
|
Uruguay |
92,93 |
|
Chile |
74,56 |
|
Ecuador |
67,52 |
|
Paraguay |
65,67 |
|
Venezuela |
60,98 |
|
Peru |
57,54 |
|
Australia |
47,96 |
|
Qatar |
21,05 |
|
Bolivia |
19,94 |
To qualify for the semi finals (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the quarter finals):
|
Brazil |
88,60 |
[89,64] |
|
|
Argentina |
81,65 |
[82,52] |
|
|
Colombia |
64,00 |
[68,03] |
|
|
Uruguay |
55,97 |
[60,23] |
|
|
Ecuador |
24,62 |
[36,46] |
|
|
Chile |
22,00 |
[29,51] |
|
|
Venezuela |
18,85 |
[30,91] |
|
|
Peru |
17,59 |
[30,57] |
|
|
Paraguay |
15,62 |
[23,79] |
|
|
Australia |
7,11 |
[14,82] |
|
|
Qatar |
2,44 |
[11,59] |
|
|
Bolivia |
1,55 |
[7,77] |
To qualify for the final (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the semi finals):
|
Brazil |
67,15 |
[75,79] |
|
|
Argentina |
64,14 |
[78,55] |
|
|
Colombia |
25,40 |
[39,69] |
|
|
Uruguay |
20,57 |
[36,75] |
|
|
Ecuador |
5,60 |
[22,75] |
|
|
Chile |
4,85 |
[22,05] |
|
|
Venezuela |
4,02 |
[21,33] |
|
|
Peru |
3,64 |
[20,69] |
|
|
Paraguay |
3,19 |
[20,42] |
|
|
Australia |
0,96 |
[13,50] |
|
|
Qatar |
0,32 |
[13,11] |
|
|
Bolivia |
0,16 |
[10,32] |
To win the Copa America (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for the final):
|
Brazil |
51,72 |
[77,02] |
|
|
Argentina |
19,91 |
[31,04] |
|
|
Colombia |
16,42 |
[64,65] |
|
|
Uruguay |
6,62 |
[32,18] |
|
|
Ecuador |
1,58 |
[28,21] |
|
|
Chile |
1,14 |
[23,51] |
|
|
Venezuela |
0,98 |
[24,38] |
|
|
Paraguay |
0,74 |
[23,20] |
|
|
Peru |
0,69 |
[18,96] |
|
|
Australia |
0,15 |
[15,63] |
|
|
Qatar |
0,04 |
[12,50] |
|
|
Bolivia |
0,01 |
[6,25] |
Then the probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5:
|
team |
nrs. 1-4 |
nr. 5 |
|
|
Brazil |
99,04 |
0,63 |
|
|
Argentina |
86,57 |
6,83 |
|
|
Uruguay |
71,62 |
11,99 |
|
|
Ecuador |
49,29 |
16,95 |
|
|
Colombia |
37,19 |
18,75 |
|
|
Chile |
17,89 |
13,15 |
|
|
Paraguay |
15,77 |
12,03 |
|
|
Venezuela |
13,71 |
10,85 |
|
|
Peru |
8,60 |
8,27 |
|
|
Bolivia |
0,32 |
0,55 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Thanks Ed
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