UEFA qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (May 2021)

The first three match days in European qualification for the World Cup 2022 have been played last March. In this qualification there are 10 groups with the group winners qualifying directly for Qatar. The 10 group runners-up will compete with the two best UNL group winners, not qualified already, in 3 play-off paths of 4 teams for the final 3 UEFA berths. These single leg semi-final and final play-offs will be played in March 2022.

In October the UEFA Nations League 2021 Final Four will be played between the league A group winners Italy, Belgium, France and Spain.

And not to forget: this June the postponed EURO 2020 will be played, still with the same match schedule, but Dublin and Bilbao are no longer venues because of the local strict COVID measures conflicting with the requirement of UEFA to play at least with some fans in the stands. Their matches are relocated to St. Petersburg (group matches Dublin), London (round of 16 Dublin) and Seville (group matches Bilbao).

CAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (April 2021)

Africa's qualification process for the World Cup next year in Qatar is not too complicated but (as usual) with little margin for error:

• first a play-off round to whittle the number of teams down to 40. These play-offs were already played in September 2019.
• then a second round consisting of 10 groups of 4 teams, with two match days to be played in the June, September and October windows this year. The ten group winners progress to 
• round three with five home-and-away play-offs to determine the 5 African participants in Qatar. These play-offs are to be played in November this year and the 10 teams in the draw will be seeded according to the FIFA October 2021 ranking.

Although the match schedule for the second qualifying round is still not officially confirmed, nor by FIFA, nor by CAF, the first two group matches are scheduled for the upcoming June window next month. Don't know why it's taking them this long to publish a simple match schedule, when the draw for this round was already more than a year ago...

FIFA ranking: April 2021 final preview

Here is the final preview of the April 2021 ranking. FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday April 8th. 

After the disqualification of Chad and the subsequent forfeit of their last two group matches in AFCON qualifying, I expect, conform the inclusion of other awarded matches, their awarded matches to be included in this ranking.

FIFA ranking April 2021: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2021 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

FIFA ranking: April 2021 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including March 31st, used to calculate the April 2021 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since February 15th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking April 2021: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2021 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on April 8th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: April 2021 probable ranking

The first FIFA international match window of the year is drawing near:

• CAF plays match days 5 and 6 to conclude the qualification groups for the CAF Cup of Nations 2022 in Cameroon.
• CONCACAF starts with their World cup qualification stage 1, a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams where each team plays 2 home and 2 away matches against each group opponent. These group matches will be played in the March window and the first part of the extended June window. Some group matches will be played in centralized locations to be able to meet the Covid-19 requirements.
  In the second part of the June window the qualification stage 2 is scheduled where in three home-and-away play-offs the 6 group winners compete for a place in stage 3, the octagonal. Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras have already qualified for this 8-team double round robin group stage, to start in September and played to a finish in March next year.
• UEFA starts with their World cup qualification groups and plays the first three match days.
• AFC had match days 7 and 8 of their world cup qualification second stage scheduled, but was forced given the current Covid-19 regulations in Asia to postpone these matches (bar only 3 exceptions) to the extended June window where they will play the last 4 group match days in centralized locations to be able to finish the second stage in that window.
• CONMEBOL had match days 5 and 6 in their World cup qualification group scheduled, but they were also forced to postpone these rounds, given the current Covid-19 regulations in Europe where most of their top players earn their money. It is yet unknown when these matches will be rescheduled. They already need all available windows until March 2022 to be able to finish the group stage on time. Probably they will have two windows in the Autumn extended with an extra match day each.