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Friday, April 29, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (29 April 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:

  • Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
  • The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (29 April 2011)

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (29 April 2011)

Nine teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy in Pot 1.
Denmark and Serbia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Greece have scheduled a friendly against Ecuador in the USA. This affects their chances for Pot 1 - falling from 98.97% to 74.08%. Three Pot 1 candidates gain more than 2%:

Norway from 63.25% to 76.52%
Portugal from 78.85% to 84.43%
France from 5.26% to 9.01%

This means I'll have to update the first pot scenarios, time allowing...

Poland's friendly against the Czech Republic was canceled, with the Czechs opting to participate in the Kirin Cup with Japan and Peru. Poland's Pot 4 chances drop by 16.8% with Armenia improving theirs by 10.32%. Poland return to Pot 5 and Armenia to Pot 4 (see below).

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

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